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	Author	Riahi, K.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kriegler, E.; Edmonds, J.; O’Neill, B.C.; Fujimori, S.; Bauer, N.; Calvin, K.; Dellink, R.; Fricko, O.; Lutz, W.; Popp, A.; Cuaresma, J.C.; KC, S.; Leimbach, M.; Jiang, L.; Kram, T.; Rao, S.; Emmerling, J.; Ebi, K.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Humpenöder, F.; Da Silva, L.A.; Smith, S.; Stehfest, E.; Bosetti, V.; Eom, J.; Gernaat, D.; Masui, T.; Rogelj, J.; Strefler, J.; Drouet, L.; Krey, V.; Luderer, G.; Harmsen, M.; Takahashi, K.; Baumstark, L.; Doelman, J.C.; Kainuma, M.; Klimont, Z.; Marangoni, G.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Obersteiner, M.; Tabeau, A.; Tavoni, M.
	Title	The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2017	Publication	Global Environmental Change	Abbreviated Journal	Glob. Environ. Change
	Volume	42	Issue		Pages	153-168
	Keywords	Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP; Climate change; RCP; Community scenarios; Mitigation; Adaptation
	Abstract	Abstract This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).
	Address	2017-06-13
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language		Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	0959-3780	ISBN		Medium
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	TradeM, ftnotmacsur			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	5008
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	Author	Christen, B.; Kjeldsen, C.; Dalgaard, T.; Martin-Ortega, J.
	Title	Can fuzzy cognitive mapping help in agricultural policy design and communication?			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2015	Publication	Land Use Policy	Abbreviated Journal	Land Use Policy
	Volume	45	Issue		Pages	64-75
	Keywords	Agricultural policy; Agro-environmental measures; Fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM); General Binding Rules; Stakeholder communication; Scottish agriculture
	Abstract	Highlights •Fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM)can help to improve agricultural policy design. •We analyse the views on regulation between farmers and non-farmers. •We demonstrate the utility of FCM in disentangling reasons for non-compliance. •Non-compliance is a result of dis-alignment of views rather than unwillingness. •FCM offers a critical, reflexive approach to how a regulatory process is conceived. Agricultural environmental regulation often fails to deliver the desired effects because of farmers adopting the related measures incorrectly or not at all. This is due to several barriers to the uptake of the prescribed environmentally beneficial farm management practices, most of which have been well established by social science research. Yet it is unclear why these barriers remain so difficult to overcome despite numerous and persistent attempts at the design, communication and enforcement of related agricultural policies. This paper examines the potential of fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) as a tool to disentangle the underlying reasons of this persistent problem. We present the FCM methodology as adapted to the application in a Scottish case study on how environmental regulation affects farmers and farming practice and what factors are important for compliance or non-compliance with this regulation. The study compares the views of two different stakeholder groups on this matter using FCM network visualizations that were validated by interviews and a workshop session. There was a farmers group representing a typical mix of Scottish farming systems and a non-farmers group, the latter comprising professionals from the fields of design, implementation, administration, consulting on and enforcement of agricultural policies. Between the two groups, the FCM process reveals a very different perception of importance and interaction of factors and strongly suggests that the problem lies in an institutional failure rather than in a simple unwillingness of farmers to obey the rules. FCM allows for a structured process of identifying areas of conflicting perceptions, but also areas where strongly differing groups of stakeholders might be able to gain common ground. In this way, FCM can help to identify anchoring points for targeted policy development and has the potential of becoming a useful tool in agricultural policy design and communication. Our results show the utility of FCM by pointing out how Scottish environmental regulation could be altered to increase compliance with the rules and where the reasons for the identified institutional failure might be sought.
	Address
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	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN		ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	LiveM, ftnotmacsur			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4620
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	Author	McIntyre, M.
	Title	Predicting the effects of climate change on pathogens			Type	Conference Article
	Year	2014	Publication		Abbreviated Journal
	Volume		Issue		Pages
	Keywords	LiveM
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	Area		Expedition		Conference	Workshop: Modelling interactions between climate and livestock pathogen transmission, 2014-01-22 to 2014-01-22
	Notes				Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	2636
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	Author	Challinor, A.E.A.
	Title	How have uncertainties in projected yields changed between AR4 and AR5			Type	Conference Article
	Year	2014	Publication		Abbreviated Journal
	Volume		Issue		Pages
	Keywords	CropM
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	Area		Expedition		Conference	MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12
	Notes				Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	2359
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	Author	Köchy, M.
	Title	The Knowledge Hub »FACCE MACSUR« Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security			Type	Conference Article
	Year	2014	Publication		Abbreviated Journal
	Volume		Issue		Pages
	Keywords	Hub
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	Area		Expedition		Conference	International REKLIM conference “Our Climate – Our Future, Regional perspectives on a global challenge”, 2014-10-06 to 2014-10-09
	Notes				Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	2549
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