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Nelson, G. C., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Calvin, K., Hasegawa, T., et al. (2014). Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don’t the models agree. Agric. Econ., 45(1), 85–101.
Abstract: Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.
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Dáder, B., Plaza, M., Fereres, A., & Moreno, A. (2015). Flight behaviour of vegetable pests and their natural enemies under different ultraviolet-blocking enclosures. Ann. Appl. Biol., 167(1), 116–126.
Abstract: Ultraviolet (UV) radiation, particularly in the UV-A + B range (280-400 nm) is a fraction of the solar spectrum that regulates almost every aspect of insect behaviour, including orientation towards hosts, alighting, arrestment and feeding behaviour. To study the role of UV radiation on the flight activity of five insect species of agricultural importance (pests Myzus persicae, Bemisia tabaci and Tuta absoluta, and natural enemies Aphidius colemani and Sphaerophoria rueppellii), one-chamber tunnels were covered with six cladding materials with different light transmittance properties ranging from 2% to 83% UV and 54% to 85% photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Inside each tunnel, insects were released from tubes placed in a platform suspended from the ceiling. Specific targets varying with insect species were placed at different distances from the platform. Evaluation parameters were designed for each insect and tested separately. The ability of insects to leave the platform was assessed, as well as the number of captures, eggs or mummies in each target, either sticky traps or plants. Our results suggest differences in flight activity among insect species and UV-blocking nets. The UV-opaque film drastically prevented aphids, and whiteflies from flying outside the tubes whereas T. absoluta, syrphids and parasitoids were not affected. Aphid flight behaviour was affected by the UV-opaque film compared to the other nets, especially in the furthest target of the tunnel. Fewer aphids reached distant traps under UV-absorbing nets, and significantly more aphids could fly to the end of tunnels covered with non-UV-blocking materials. Orientation of B. tabaci and T. absoluta was also negatively affected by the UV-opaque film although in a different trend. Unlike aphids, differences in B. tabaci captures were mainly found in the closest targets. UV transmittance did not have any effects on parasitoids, and S. rueppellii, implying cues other than visual for these insects under our experimental conditions. Further effects of photoselective enclosures on greenhouse pests and their natural enemies are discussed.
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Kyle, P., Müller, C., Calvin, K., & Thomson, A. (2014). Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts. Earth’s Future, 2, 83–98.
Abstract: This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6W/m(2) in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.
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Reidsma, P., Bakker, M. M., Kanellopoulos, A., Alam, S. J., Paas, W., Kros, J., et al. (2015). Impacts of climate and socio-economic change at farm and landscape level in the Netherlands: climate smart agriculture..
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Tao, F., Rötter, R. P., Palosuo, T., Hernández, C. G., Mínguez, M. I., Semenov, M., et al. (2016). Using crop model ensembles to design future climate-resilient barley cultivars.. Berlin (Germany).
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