| Records |
| Author |
Teixeira, E.I.; Fischer, G.; van Velthuizen, H.; Walter, C.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
| Volume |
170 |
Issue |
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Pages |
206-215 |
| Keywords |
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| Abstract |
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Place of Publication |
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Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0168-1923 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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| Area |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4929 |
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| Author |
Tao, F.; Zhang, S.; Zhang, Z.; Rötter, R.P. |
| Title |
Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. |
| Volume |
208 |
Issue |
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Pages |
12-20 |
| Keywords |
agronomic management; climate change; food security; impact; water stress; yield potential; resource use efficiency; northeast china; climate-change; food security; environmental-quality; crop productivity; plain; agriculture; management; intensification |
| Abstract |
The precise spatially explicit knowledge about crop yield potentials and yield gaps is essential to guide sustainable intensification of agriculture. In this study, the maize yield potentials from 1980 to 2008 across the major maize production regions of China were firstly estimated by county using ensemble simulation of a well-validated large scale crop model, i.e., MCWLA-Maize model. Then, the temporal and spatial patterns of maize yield potentials and yield gaps during 1980-2008 were presented and analyzed. The results showed that maize yields became stagnated at 32.4% of maize-growing areas during the period. In the major maize production regions, i.e., northeastern China, the North China Plain (NCP) and southwestern China, yield gap percentages were generally less than 40% and particularly less than 20% in some areas. By contrast, in northern and southern China, where actual yields were relatively lower, yield gap percentages were generally larger than 40%. The areas with yield gap percentages less than 20% and less than 40% accounted for 8.2% and 27.6% of maize-growing areas, respectively. During the period, yield potentials decreased in the NCP and southwestern China due to increase in temperature and decrease in solar radiation; by contrast, increased in northern, northeastern and southeastern China due to increases in both temperature and solar radiation. Yield gap percentages decreased generally by 2% per year across the major maize production regions, although increased in some areas in northern and northeastern China. The shrinking of yield gap was due to increases in actual yields and decreases in yield potentials in the NCP and southwestern China; and due to larger increases in actual yields than in yield potentials in northeastern and southeastern China. The results highlight the importance of sustainable intensification of agriculture to close yield gaps, as well as breeding new cultivars to increase yield potentials, to meet the increasing food demand. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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0167-8809 |
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Article |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4715 |
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| Author |
Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C. |
| Title |
Forecasting technological change in agriculture—An endogenous implementation in a global land use model |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
| Volume |
81 |
Issue |
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Pages |
236-249 |
| Keywords |
Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration |
| Abstract |
► Endogenous technological change in an economic land use model ► Estimation of yield elasticity with respect to investments in technological change ► Projections of future agricultural productivity rates ► Validation with observed data and historic trends ► Trade-off between required technological change and forest protection objectives Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 0.29 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995–2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0040-1625 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4518 |
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| Author |
Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Drews, M.; Halsnaes, K.; Jeppesen, E.; Madsen, H.; Markandya, A.; Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R.; Christensen, J.H. |
| Title |
The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies – a Danish water management example |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change |
| Volume |
18 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
337-359 |
| Keywords |
Climate change; Adaptation; Uncertainty; Risk; Water sectors; Multi-disciplinary; change impacts; global change; winter-wheat; models; scenarios; ensembles; denmark; vulnerability; community; knowledge |
| Abstract |
We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1381-2386 1573-1596 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4613 |
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| Author |
Kim, Y.; Berger, S.; Kettering, J.; Tenhunen, J.; Haas, E.; Kiese, R. |
| Title |
Simulation of N2O emissions and nitrate leaching from plastic mulch radish cultivation with LandscapeDNDC |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Ecological Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Res. |
| Volume |
29 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
441-454 |
| Keywords |
biogeochemical modeling; landscapedndc; N2O; nitrate leaching; plastic mulch; nitrous-oxide emissions; semiarid loess plateau; biogeochemical model; soil-erosion; no emissions; forest soils; dndc model; film mulch; china; field |
| Abstract |
Radish is one of the major dry field crops in Asia commonly grown with plastic mulch and high rates of N fertilization, and potentially harming the environment due to N2O emissions and nitrate leaching. Despite the widespread use of plastic mulch, biogeochemical models so far do not yet consider impacts of mulch on soil environmental conditions and biogeochemistry. In this study, we adapted and successfully tested the LandscapeDNDC model against field data by simulating crop growth, C and N turnover and associated N2O emissions as well as nitrate leaching for radish cultivation with plastic mulch and in conjunction with different rates of N fertilization (465-765 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)). Due to the sandy soil texture and monsoon climate, nitrate leaching with rates up to 350 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) was the dominant reason for overall low nitrogen use efficiency (32-43 %). Direct or indirect N2O emissions (calculated from simulated nitrate leaching rates and IPCC EFind = 0.0075) ranged between 2 and 3 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), thus contributing an equal amount to total field emissions of about 5 kg N ha(-1) year(-1). Based on our results, emission factors for direct N2O emissions ranged between 0.004 and 0.005. These values are only half of the IPCC default value (0.01), demonstrating the need of biogeochemical models for developing site and/or region specific EFs. Simulation results also revealed that changes in agricultural management by applying the fertilizer only to the rows would be an efficient mitigation strategy, effectively decreasing field nitrate leaching and N2O emissions by 50-60 %. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0912-3814 1440-1703 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4528 |
| Permanent link to this record |
