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Author |
Bojar, W.; Sinabell, F.; Verburg, R. |
Title |
Economic and Trade Models to Analyze Climate Change Risk and Food Security for European Agriculture – A Survey |
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Conference Article |
Year |
2013 |
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TradeM |
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MACSUR TradeM workshop: Exploring new ideas for trade and agriculture model integration for assessing the impacts of climate change on food security, The Natural Resource and Environmental Research Center (NRERC), University of Haifa, Israel, 2013-03-03 t |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2332 |
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Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. |
Title |
Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
Volume |
3 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
827-832 |
Keywords |
crop production; models; food; co2; temperature; projections; adaptation; scenarios; ensemble; impacts |
Abstract |
Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking. |
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English |
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1758-678x |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4599 |
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Virkajärvi, P.; Jing, Q.; Bélanger, G.; Baron, V.; Bonesmo, H.; Young, D. |
Title |
Modeling grassland with CATIMO – focus on the second cut |
Type |
Conference Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
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Volume |
9(1) |
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Pages |
9-13 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2881 |
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Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Zarski, J. |
Title |
Analiza wplywu warunków klimatycznych na plonowanie roslin uprawnych w regionie kujawsko-pomorskim (Analysis of impact of climate conditions on yielding of crops in Kujavian & Pomeranian region) |
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Report |
Year |
2013 |
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Studies & Proceedings of Polish Association for Knowledge Management |
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64 |
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Pages |
31-44 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2070 |
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Nendel, C.; Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Asseng, S.; Ruane, A.C.; Banse, M.; Tiffin, R.; Brouwer, F.; Sinabell, F.; Scollan, N.; Meijs, J.; Angulo, C.; Antle, J.M.; Baigorria, G.; Basso, B.; Bindi, M.; Boote, K.J.; Gaiser, T.; Janssen, S.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nelson, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Palosuo, T.; Porter, C.H.; Porter, J.R.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.; Stewart, D.; Thorburn, P.; Trnka, M.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Verhagen, J.; Wallach, D.; Winter, J.M. |
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Addressing challenges and uncertainties for, the use of agro-ecosystem models to, assess climate change impact and food security across scales |
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Conference Article |
Year |
2013 |
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CropM |
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Climate Change and Regional Responses Conference, Dresden, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-27 |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2679 |
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