|
Records |
Links ![sorted by URL field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
|
Author |
Holman, I.P.; Brown, C.; Carter, T.R.; Harrison, P.A.; Rounsevell, M. |
![find record details (via OpenURL) openurl](img/xref.gif)
|
|
Title |
Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg. Environ. Change |
|
|
Volume |
19 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
711-721 |
|
|
Keywords |
Adaptive capacity; Limits; Water; Land; Decision making; Integrated assessment; Land-Cover Change; Global Change; River-Basin; Integrated Assessment; Adaptive Capacity; Vulnerability; Variability; Precautionary; Agriculture; Management |
|
|
Abstract |
Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate. |
|
|
Address |
2019-04-27 |
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1436-3798 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5220 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P. |
![find record details (via OpenURL) openurl](img/xref.gif)
|
|
Title |
Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Food and Energy Security |
Abbreviated Journal |
Food Energy Secur. |
|
|
Volume |
2 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
185-196 |
|
|
Keywords |
Climate change impacts; crop modeling; LARS-WG; Sirius; wheat |
|
|
Abstract |
Global warming is characterized by shifts in weather patterns and increases in climatic variability and extreme events. New wheat cultivars will be required for a rapidly changing environment, putting severe pressure on breeders who must select for climate conditions which can only be predicted with a great degree of uncertainty. To assist breeders to identify key wheat traits for improvements under climate change, wheat ideotypes can be designed and tested in silico using a wheat simulation model for a wide range of future climate scenarios predicted by global climate models. A wheat ideotype is represented by a set of cultivar parameters in a model, which could be optimized for best wheat performance under projected climate change. As an example, high-yielding wheat ideotypes were designed at two contrasting European sites for the 2050 (A1B) climate scenario. Simulations showed that wheat yield potential can be substantially increased for new ideotypes compared with current wheat varieties under climate change. The main factors contributing to yield increase were improvement in light conversion efficiency, extended duration of grain filling resulting in a higher harvest index, and optimal phenology. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
2048-3694 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4505 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Lehtonen, H. |
|
|
Title |
Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Food Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Food Science |
|
|
Volume |
24 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
219-234 |
|
|
Keywords |
agricultural sector modelling; economic adjustment; global prices; climate change; finnish agriculture; crop production; land-use; challenge; ensembles; Finland; Europe; policy |
|
|
Abstract |
Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production. |
|
|
Address |
2016-07-22 |
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1459-6067 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4750 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Dono, G.; Raffaele, C.; Luca, G.; Roggero, P.P. |
|
|
Title |
Income Impacts of Climate Change: Irrigated Farming in the Mediterranean and Expected Changes in Probability of Favorable and Adverse Weather Conditions |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
|
|
Volume |
63 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
177-186 |
|
|
Keywords |
discrete stochastic programming; rdp measures to adapt to climate change; economic impact of climate change; irrigated agriculture and climate change; insurance tools for adaptation to climate change; water markets; risk; variability; management; systems |
|
|
Abstract |
EU rural development policy (RDP) regulation 1305/2013 aims to protect farmers’ incomes from ongoing change of climate variability (CCV), and the increase in frequency of adverse climatic events. An income stabilization tool (IST) is provided to compensate drastic drops in income, including those caused by climatic events. The present study examines some aspect of its application focussing on Mediterranean irrigation area where frequent water shortages may generate significant income reductions in the current climate conditions, and may be further exacerbated by climate change. This enhanced loss of income in the future would occur due to a change in climate variability. This change would appreciably reduce the probability of weather conditions that are favourable for irrigation, but would not significantly increase either the probability of unfavourable weather conditions or the magnitude of their impact. As the IST and other insurance tools that protect against adversity and catastrophic events are only activated under extreme conditions, farmers may not consider them to be suitable in dealing with the new climate regime. This would leave a portion of the financial resources allocated by the RDP unused, resulting in less support for climate change adaptation. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
0002-1121 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4669 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Ventrella, D.; Giglio, L.; Charfeddine, M.; Dalla Marta, A. |
|
|
Title |
Consumptive use of green and blue water for winter durum wheat cultivated in Southern Italy |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Italian Journal of Agrometeorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Italian Journal of Agrometeorology |
|
|
Volume |
20 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
33-44 |
|
|
Keywords |
irrigation; water productivity; model simulation; climate change; climate-change scenarios; air co2 enrichment; impact; footprint; irrigation; simulation; yield; agriculture; variability; resources |
|
|
Abstract |
In this study at the regional scale, the model DSSAT CERES-Wheat was applied in order to simulate the cultivation of winter durum wheat (WW) and to estimate the green water (GW) and the blue water (BW) through a dual-step approach (with and without supplemental irrigation). The model simulation covered a period of 30 years for three scenarios including a reference period and two future scenarios based on forecasted global average temperature increase of 2 and 5 degrees C. The GW and BW contribution for evapo transpiration requirement is presented and analyzed on a distributed scale related to the Puglia region (Southern Italy) characterized by high evaporative demand of the atmosphere. The GW component was dominant compared to BW, covering almost 90% of the ETc of WW Under a Baseline scenario the weight BW was 11%, slightly increased in the future scenarios. GW appeared dependent on the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall during the crop cycle, and to the hydraulic characteristics of soil for each calculation unit. After considering the effects of climate change on irrigation requirement of WW we carried out an example of analysis in order to verify the economic benefit of supplemental irrigation for WW cultivation. The probability that irrigation generates a negative or zero income ranged between 55 and 60% and climate change did not impact the profitability of irrigation for WW as simulated for the economic and agro-pedoclimatic conditions of Puglia region considered in this study. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4653 |
|
Permanent link to this record |