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Author |
Ventrella, D.; Charfeddine, M.; Moriondo, M.; Rinaldi, M.; Bindi, M. |
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Title |
Agronomic adaptation strategies under climate change for winter durum wheat and tomato in southern Italy: irrigation and nitrogen fertilization |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg Environ Change |
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Volume |
12 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
407-419 |
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Keywords |
Modelling; Climate change; Agronomic adaptation strategies; Yield; Tomato; Winter durum wheat; air co2 enrichment; change scenarios; cropping systems; change impacts; simulation; agriculture; variability; increase; model; responses; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
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Agricultural crops are affected by climate change due to the relationship between crop development, growth, yield, CO2 atmospheric concentration and climate conditions. In particular, the further reduction in existing limited water resources combined with an increase in temperature may result in higher impacts on agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area than in other regions. In this study, the cropping system models CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO-Tomato of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) were used to analyse the response of winter durum wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) crops to climate change, irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer managements in one of most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia). For this analysis, three climatic datasets were used: (1) a single dataset (50 km x 50 km) provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975-2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2A degrees C (centred over 2030-2060) and +5A degrees C (centred over 2070-2099), respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG). Adaptation strategies, such as irrigation and N fertilizer managements, have been investigated to either avoid or at least reduce the negative impacts induced by climate change impacts for both crops. Warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate wheat and tomato phenology, thereby resulting in decreased total dry matter accumulation for both tomato and wheat under the +5A degrees C future climate scenario. Under the +2A degrees C scenario, dry matter accumulation and resulting yield were also reduced for tomato, whereas no negative yield effects were observed for winter durum wheat. In general, limiting the global mean temperature change of 2A degrees C, the application of adaptation strategies (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) showed a positive effect in minimizing the negative impacts of climate change on productivity of tomato cultivated in southern Italy. |
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1436-3798 1436-378x |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4480 |
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Stürck, J.; Levers, C.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verkerk, P.J.; Kuemmerle, T.; Helming, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Tabeau, A.; Popp, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Verburg, P. |
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Title |
Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg. Environ. Change |
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in press |
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Keywords |
land use change; land system; modeling; scenario; Europe; ecosystem services |
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Abstract |
Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets. |
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1436-3798 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4996 |
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Kros, J.; Bakker, M.M.; Reidsma, P.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Jamal Alam, S.; de Vries, W. |
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Title |
Impacts of agricultural changes in response to climate and socioeconomic change on nitrogen deposition in nature reserves |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Landscape Ecology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Landscape Ecol. |
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30 |
Issue |
5 |
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871-885 |
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Keywords |
Agricultural adaptation; Climate change; Land use change; Environmental; impact; Farming system; Nitrogen losses; netherlands; diversity; scenario |
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This paper describes the environmental consequences of agricultural adaptation on eutrophication of the nearby ecological network for a study area in the Netherlands. More specifically, we explored (i) likely responses of farmers to changes in climate, technology, policy, and markets; (ii) subsequent changes in nitrogen (N) emissions in responses to farmer adaptations; and (iii) to what extent the emitted N was deposited in nearby nature reserves, in view of the potential impacts on plant species diversity and desired nature targets. For this purpose, a spatially-explicit study at landscape level was performed by integrating the environmental model INITIATOR, the farm model FSSIM, and the land-use model RULEX. We evaluated two alternative scenarios of change in climate, technology, policy, and markets for 2050: one in line with a ‘global economy’ (GE) storyline and the other in line with a ‘regional communities’ (RC) storyline. Results show that the GE storyline resulted in a relatively strong increase in agricultural production compared to the RC storyline. Despite the projected conversions of agricultural land to nature (as part of the implementation of the National Ecological Network), we project an increase in N losses and N deposition due to N emissions in the study area of about 20 %. Even in the RC storyline, with a relatively modest increase in agricultural production and a larger expansion of the nature reserve, the N losses and deposition remain at the current level, whereas a reduction is required. We conclude that more ambitious green policies are needed in view of nature protection. |
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0921-2973 1572-9761 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4565 |
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Dumont, B.; Basso, B.; Leemans, V.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
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Title |
Systematic analysis of site-specific yield distributions resulting from nitrogen management and climatic variability interactions |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
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Precision Agriculture |
Abbreviated Journal |
Precision Agric. |
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16 |
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4 |
Pages |
361-384 |
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Keywords |
nitrogen management; climatic variability; lars-wg weather generator; stics soil-crop model; pearson system; probability risk assessment; crop model stics; fertilizer nitrogen; generic model; wheat yield; maize; simulation; skewness; field; agriculture; scenarios |
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At the plot level, crop simulation models such as STICS have the potential to evaluate risk associated with management practices. In nitrogen (N) management, however, the decision-making process is complex because the decision has to be taken without any knowledge of future weather conditions. The objective of this paper is to present a general methodology for assessing yield variability linked to climatic uncertainty and variable N rate strategies. The STICS model was coupled with the LARS-Weather Generator. The Pearson system and coefficients were used to characterise the shape of yield distribution. Alternatives to classical statistical tests were proposed for assessing the normality of distributions and conducting comparisons (namely, the Jarque-Bera and Wilcoxon tests, respectively). Finally, the focus was put on the probability risk assessment, which remains a key point within the decision process. The simulation results showed that, based on current N application practice among Belgian farmers (60-60-60 kgN ha(-1)), yield distribution was very highly significantly non-normal, with the highest degree of asymmetry characterised by a skewness value of -1.02. They showed that this strategy gave the greatest probability (60 %) of achieving yields that were superior to the mean (10.5 t ha(-1)) of the distribution. |
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1385-2256 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4519 |
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Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Drews, M.; Halsnaes, K.; Jeppesen, E.; Madsen, H.; Markandya, A.; Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R.; Christensen, J.H. |
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The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies – a Danish water management example |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
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Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change |
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18 |
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3 |
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337-359 |
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Climate change; Adaptation; Uncertainty; Risk; Water sectors; Multi-disciplinary; change impacts; global change; winter-wheat; models; scenarios; ensembles; denmark; vulnerability; community; knowledge |
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We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation. |
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1381-2386 1573-1596 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4613 |
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