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| Author | Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Åby, B.A.; Persson, T.; Höglind, M.; Mittenzwei, K. | ||||
| Title | Combining models to estimate the impacts of future climate scenarios on feed supply, greenhouse gas emissions and economic performance on dairy farms in Norway | Type | Journal Article | ||
| Year | 2017 | Publication | Agricultural Systems | Abbreviated Journal | Agric. Syst. |
| Volume | 157 | Issue | Pages | 157-169 | |
| Keywords | Climate change; Dairy farming; Dry matter yield; Economics; Greenhouse gas emission; Modelling | ||||
| Abstract | • This study combines crop, livestock and economic models. • Models interaction is through use of relevant input and output variables. • Future climate change will result in increased grass and wheat dry matter yields. • Changes in grass, wheat and milk yields in future reduce farm emissions intensity. • Changes in future dry matter yields and emissions lead to increased profitability. There is a scientific consensus that the future climate change will affect grass and crop dry matter (DM) yields. Such yield changes may entail alterations to farm management practices to fulfill the feed requirements and reduce the farm greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from dairy farms. While a large number of studies have focused on the impacts of projected climate change on a single farm output (e.g. GHG emissions or economic performance), several attempts have been made to combine bio-economic systems models with GHG accounting frameworks. In this study, we aimed to determine the physical impacts of future climate scenarios on grass and wheat DM yields, and demonstrate the effects such changes in future feed supply may have on farm GHG emissions and decision-making processes. For this purpose, we combined four models: BASGRA and CSM-CERES-Wheat models for simulating forage grass DM and wheat DM grain yields respectively; HolosNor for estimating the farm GHG emissions; and JORDMOD for calculating the impacts of changes in the climate and management on land use and farm economics. Four locations, with varying climate and soil conditions were included in the study: south-east Norway, south-west Norway, central Norway and northern Norway. Simulations were carried out for baseline (1961–1990) and future (2046–2065) climate conditions (projections based on two global climate models and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B GHG emission scenario), and for production conditions with and without a milk quota. The GHG emissions intensities (kilogram carbon dioxide equivalent: kgCO2e emissions per kg fat and protein corrected milk: FPCM) varied between 0.8 kg and 1.23 kg CO2e (kg FPCM)− 1, with the lowest and highest emissions found in central Norway and south-east Norway, respectively. Emission intensities were generally lower under future compared to baseline conditions due mainly to higher future milk yields and to some extent to higher crop yields. The median seasonal above-ground timothy grass yield varied between 11,000 kg and 16,000 kg DM ha− 1 and was higher in all projected future climate conditions than in the baseline. The spring wheat grain DM yields simulated for the same weather conditions within each climate projection varied between 2200 kg and 6800 kg DM ha− 1. Similarly, the farm profitability as expressed by total national land rents varied between 1900 million Norwegian krone (NOK) for median yields under baseline climate conditions up to 3900 million NOK for median yield under future projected climate conditions. |
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| Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
| Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
| Language | Summary Language | phase 2 | Original Title | ||
| Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
| Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
| ISSN | ISBN | Medium | |||
| Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
| Notes | CropM, LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 5172 | ||
| Permanent link to this record | |||||
| Author | Yin, X.G.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kollas, C.; Manevski, K.; Baby, S.; Beaudoin, N.; Ozturk, I.; Gaiser, T.; Wu, L.H.; Hoffmann, M.; Charfeddine, M.; Conradt, T.; Constantin, J.; Ewert, F.; de Cortazar-Atauri, I.G.; Giglio, L.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Launay, M.; Louarn, G.; Manderscheid, R.; Mary, B.; Mirschel, W.; Nende, C.; Pacholskin, A.; Palosuo, T.; Ripoche-Wachter, D.; Rotter, R.P.; Ruget, F.; Sharif, B.; Trnka, M.; Ventrella, D.; Weigel, H.J.; Olesen, J.E.; Yin, X.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kollas, C.; Manevski, K.; Baby, S.; Beaudoin, N.; Ozturk, I.; Gaiser, T.; Wu, L.; Hoffmann, M.; Charfeddine, M.; Conradt, T.; Constantin, J.; Ewert, F.; de Cortazar-Atauri, I.G.; Giglio, L.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Launay, M.; Louarn, G.; Manderscheid, R.; Mary, B.; Mirschel, W.; Nende, C.; Pacholskin, A.; Palosuo, T.; Ripoche-Wachter, D.; Roetter, R.P.; Ruget, F.; Sharif, B.; Trnka, M.; Ventrella, D.; Weigel, H.-J.; Olesen, J.E. | ||||
| Title | Performance of process-based models for simulation of grain N in crop rotations across Europe | Type | Journal Article | ||
| Year | 2017 | Publication | Agricultural Systems | Abbreviated Journal | Agric. Syst. |
| Volume | 154 | Issue | Pages | 63-77 | |
| Keywords | Calibration, Crop model, Crop rotation, Grain N content, Model evaluation, Model initialization; Climate-Change; Winter-Wheat; Nitrogen-Fertilization; Agroecosystem; Models; Multimodel Ensembles; Yield Response; Use Efficiency; Soil-Moisture; Oilseed Rape; Elevated Co2 | ||||
| Abstract | The accurate estimation of crop grain nitrogen (N; N in grain yield) is crucial for optimizing agricultural N management, especially in crop rotations. In the present study, 12 process-based models were applied to simulate the grain N of i) seven crops in rotations, ii) across various pedo-climatic and agro-management conditions in Europe, under both continuous simulation and single year simulation, and for iv) two calibration levels, namely minimal and detailed calibration. Generally, the results showed that the accuracy of the simulations in predicting grain N increased under detailed calibration. The models performed better in predicting the grain N of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), winter barley (Hordewn vulgare L.) and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) compared to spring oat (Avena saliva L.), winter rye (Secale cereale L.), pea (Piswn sativum L.) and winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.). These differences are linked to the intensity of parameterization with better parameterized crops showing lower prediction errors. The model performance was influenced by N fertilization and irrigation treatments, and a majority of the predictions were more accurate under low N and rainfed treatments. Moreover, the multi-model mean provided better predictions of grain N compared to any individual model. In regard to the Individual models, DAISY, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA and STICS are suitable for predicting grain N of the main crops in typical European crop rotations, which all performed well in both continuous simulation and single year simulation. Our results show that both the model initialization and the cover crop effects in crop rotations should be considered in order to achieve good performance of continuous simulation. Furthermore, the choice of either continuous simulation or single year simulation should be guided by the simulation objectives (e.g. grain yield, grain N content or N dynamics), the crop sequence (inclusion of legumes) and treatments (rate and type of N fertilizer) included in crop rotations and the model formalism. | ||||
| Address | 2017-06-12 | ||||
| Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
| Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
| Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
| Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
| Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
| ISSN | 0308-521x | ISBN | Medium | ||
| Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
| Notes | CropM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4963 | ||
| Permanent link to this record | |||||
| Author | Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, R.; Rodriguez, A.; Lorite, I.J.; Bindi, M.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Palosuo, T.; Pirttioja, N.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hoehn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Roetter, R.P. | ||||
| Title | Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment | Type | Journal Article | ||
| Year | 2018 | Publication | Agricultural Systems | Abbreviated Journal | Agric. Syst. |
| Volume | 159 | Issue | Pages | 260-274 | |
| Keywords | Wheat adaptation; Sensitivity analysis; Crop model ensemble; Rainfed, Mediterranean cropping system; AOCK concept; Iberian Peninsula; Simulation-Model; Change Impacts; Crop; Uncertainty; Ensemble; Europe; Yield; Productivity; Irrigation | ||||
| Abstract | Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the “According to Our Current Knowledge” (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T.),[CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | ||||
| Address | 2018-01-25 | ||||
| Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
| Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
| Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
| Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
| Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
| ISSN | 0308-521x | ISBN | Medium | ||
| Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
| Notes | CropM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 5184 | ||
| Permanent link to this record | |||||
| Author | Park, S.K.; Sungmin, O.; Cassardo, C. | ||||
| Title | Soil temperature response in Korea to a changing climate using a land surface model | Type | Journal Article | ||
| Year | 2017 | Publication | Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences | Abbreviated Journal | Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences |
| Volume | 53 | Issue | 4 | Pages | 457-470 |
| Keywords | Land surface process; soil temperature; climate change; soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) scheme; University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA); REGIONAL CLIMATE; SNOW COVER; WATER-RESOURCES; SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS; QUANTITATIVE-ANALYSIS; MESOSCALE MODEL; SRES EMISSIONS; FUTURE CLIMATE; CHANGE IMPACTS; SOUTH-AMERICA | ||||
| Abstract | The land surface processes play an important role in weather and climate systems through its regulation of radiation, heat, water and momentum fluxes. Soil temperature (ST) is one of the most important parameters in the land surface processes; however, there are few extensive measurements of ST with a long time series in the world. According to the CLImatology of Parameters at the Surface (CLIPS) methodology, the output of a trusted Soil-Vegetation- Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) scheme can be utilized instead of observations to investigate the regional climate of interest. In this study, ST in South Korea is estimated in a view of future climate using the output from a trusted SVAT scheme – the University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA), which is driven by a regional climate model. Here characteristic changes in ST are analyzed under the IPCC A2 future climate for 2046-2055 and 2091-2100, and are compared with those under the reference climate for 1996-2005. The UTOPIA results were validated using the observed ST in the reference climate, and the model proved to produce reasonable ST in South Korea. The UTOPIA simulations indicate that ST increases due to environmental change, especially in air temperature (AT), in the future climate. The increment of ST is proportional to that of AT except for winter. In wintertime, the ST variations are different from region to region mainly due to variations in snow cover, which keeps ST from significant changes by the climate change. | ||||
| Address | 2017-12-21 | ||||
| Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
| Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
| Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
| Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
| Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
| ISSN | 1976-7633 | ISBN | Medium | ||
| Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
| Notes | CropM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 5182 | ||
| Permanent link to this record | |||||
| Author | Wallach, D.; Mearns, L.O.; Ruane, A.C.; Rötter, R.P.; Asseng, S. | ||||
| Title | Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling | Type | Journal Article | ||
| Year | 2016 | Publication | Climatic Change | Abbreviated Journal | Clim. Change |
| Volume | 139 | Issue | 3-4 | Pages | 551-564 |
| Keywords | change projections; elevated CO2; uncertainty; wheat; water; soil; simulations; yield; rice; 21st-century; Model ensembles; Crop models; Climate models; Model weighting; Super ensembles | ||||
| Abstract | Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor. | ||||
| Address | 2017-01-06 | ||||
| Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
| Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
| Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
| Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
| Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
| ISSN | 0165-0009 | ISBN | Medium | Article | |
| Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
| Notes | CropM, ft_MACSUR | Approved | no | ||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4933 | ||
| Permanent link to this record | |||||