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Schönhart, M., Schauppenlehner, T., Kuttner, M., & Schmid, E. (2015). Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Impacts at Landscape level: Mostviertel, Austria. In FACCE MACSUR Reports (Vol. 6, SPp. 6). Brussels.
Abstract: ConclusionsIncreasing productivity can increase intensification pressuresThreatened permanent (extensive) grasslands and landscape elements, butsubject to resource constraints, costs and prices andfuture production potential to increase global food supplyFuture RDP and environmental policy design (e.g. WFD) should take changing productivity into accountHeterogeneity matters at farm and regional levelChanging relative competitiveness of farmsFuture research: analyze uncertainties No Label
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Scollan, N., Bannink, A., Kipling, R., Saetnan, E., & Van Middelkoop, J. (2015). Livestock and feed production, especially dairy and beef. In FACCE MACSUR Reports (Vol. 6, pp. Sp6–3). Brussels.
Abstract: Improving health and welfare is an important adaptation and mitigation strategyDeveloping process based modelling, responsive to adaptationLinks to climate and land use change modelling are essential Livestock systems likely to be hit hardest by climate changeNeed to develop animal health models that respond to adaptation by farmersBringing together direct and indirect impacts of climate change vitalAdaptation and mitigation need to be considered and modelled togetherLinking models across scales is important to support policy decisionsLearning between sectors carries potential for novel solutions and methodological advancesEffective communication of outcomes to stakeholders (how?) No Label
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Köchy, M. (2015). Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A workshop for decisionmakers. Workshop Programme (Vol. 6).
Abstract: Local agricultural production is strongly affected by the weather. Climate change is likely to cause increases in extreme weather events, as well as underlying changes in average conditions. If agriculture is to be sustainable and profitable, farmers will need to adapt to these changes. What impacts could climate change have on farming systems across Europe, and how important are they likely to be compared to the impacts of policies?In order to better answer these questions, the FACCE JPI knowledge hub MACSUR, comprising more than 300 researchers in 18 countries, is assessing the current state of the art in the modelling of agricultural systems for food security.At this workshop we invited policymakers and other stakeholders to learn about regional impacts of climate change on European agriculture relative to policies and to inform researchers about the consultation needs of stakeholders. No Label
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Pohanková, E., Hlavinka, P., Kersebaum, K. C., Dubrovský, M., Fischer, M., Balek, J., et al. (2015). Pilot study: Field crop rotations modeling under present and future conditions in the Czech Republic using HERMES model (Vol. 5).
Abstract: The aim of this study is to compare the water and organic material balance, yields and other aspects estimated within crop rotations by the Hermes crop model for present and future climatic conditions in the Czech Republic. Moreover, this is a pilot study for the complex and continuous crop rotations modeling (using both single crop models and ensembles) in connection with transient climate change scenarios. For this purpose, three locations representing important agricultural regions of the Czech Republic (with different climatic conditions) were selected. The crop rotation (including spring barley, silage maize, winter wheat, winter rape, and winter wheat in the listed order) was simulated from 1981-2080. The period 1981-2010 was covered by measured meteorological data, and the period 2011-2080 was represented by a transient synthetic weather series from the weather generator M&Rfi. The generated data was based on five circulation models representing an ensemble of 18 CMIP3 global circulation models to preserve to a large degree the uncertainty of the original ensemble. Two types of crop management were compared, and the influences of soil quality, increasing atmospheric CO2 and magnitude of adaptation measure (in the form of sowing date changes) were also considered. According to the results, if a “dry” scenario (such as GFCM21) would occur, then all the C3 crops produced in drier regions would be devastated in a significant number of seasons; for example, by the 2070s, up to 19.5%, 21.5% and 47.0% of seasons with winter rape, spring barley and winter wheat, respectively, would have a yield level below 50% of the present yield. Negative impacts are likely even on premium-quality soils regardless of the use of a flexible sowing date and accounting for increasing CO2 concentrations. Moreover, in some cases, the use of catch crops can have negative impacts, exacerbating the soil water deficit for the subsequent crops. This study (submitted to Climate Research journal) will be used as a pilot for subsequent activities. In this area, following calculations (the same set of stations and updated climate scenarios) using growth models ensemble (currently includes 12 modeling approaches) started to estimate uncertainty aspects. Consequently, the analysis within wider range of conditions (across continents) and farming methods will be conducted. No Label
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Topp, C. (2015). Pesticide management in Scottish spring barley – insights from sowing dates (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Better management of pesticides is a potentially important strategy for reducing environmental impact while maintaining yields. Pesticide use is influenced by several drivers, including sowing date, which can directly impact disease burden. Analysis of sowing dates for spring barley was the first stage of this project, which aims to provide insight into areas of farm management which can be optimised to reduce environmental impact. Sowing dates were taken from the Adopt a Crop database, which contains data from 1983 onwards for commercial farms across Scotland. Work was carried out at three levels: national, to provide an overall picture of historical patterns; regional, to highlight differences within Scotland; and case study, to determine whether the national trend was visible in a single region. A general trend towards later sowing of spring barley in Scotland is visible – yet, this pattern is less pronounced in certain regions. Future work must therefore consider what factors have lead to this shift, to more fully understand interactions between sowing date and the environment. No Label
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