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Quaranta, G. |
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Model integration with economist perspectives |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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D-T2.4 |
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Models integration and possible contrasts with up-scaling activities has received increasing attention in recent years especially with respect to the relationship between farm-economics and biophysical assessments. Current bio-economic models that analyse the trade-offs between farm income and interventions on eco-bio-environmental parameters such as maintenance of biodiversity, reduction of erosion and nitrate pollution and more, include static models. Agricultural systems are facing a series of threats, including climate change, land degradation, price volatility and intensification processes, which put their long-term sustainability into question. The University of Basilicata in collaboration with local representatives from various sectors of production in the Basilicata region of Southern Italy has developed an integrated study to define a model system to assess the dynamics at play in rural territories. The study tested the explanatory usefulness of resilience theory for the Basilicata agricultural social-ecological system, applying the adaptive cycle as a diagnostic tool to explore the dynamics and trajectories of change in the coupled social-ecological systems, and evaluating the performance of social, economic and social capitals, which are subject to the same dynamics. The use of dynamic analysis of the social, economic and natural capitals as the key to interpret the various phases of the adaptive cycle of the two agricultural systems proved a powerful tool in analysing the relationships between resilience and sustainable development in rural territories. The adoption of capitals and their inter-relations proved fundamental to the elaboration of adaptation strategies which were compatible with patterns of sustainability. The adaptive cycle heuristic, despite some methodological difficulties, remains useful to describe processes of change in rural socio-ecological systems. There could be enormous potential in adopting these instruments to help identify of the needs of different territories and help the framing and implementation of rural policies. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2113 |
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Biewald, A. |
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Title |
Climate dependent equilibrium model |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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D-T2.3 |
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In the framework of AgMIP (Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project; www.agmip.org), several articles have been published in which about 10 leading, agro-economic models analysed the impact of climate change on agricultural yields, area, consumption and food prices (Lotze-Campen et al. 2014, Nelson et. al 2014a,b Schmitz et al. 2014). A part of these articles are available freely through the publisher (e.g. http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3274). PIK has not only contributed through model simulations with the spatially explicit, agro-economic model MAgPIE, but also by coordinating this activity. Starting with AgMIP phase II in 2015, AgMIP has now for the first time conducted the model-analysis for different “Shared Socio-economic Pathways” (short SSPs). A first study has been published in the renowned journal “Environmental Research Letters” (Wiebe et al. 2015). These are important contributions to task 2.3 which aimed at simulating the impact of global climate changes on agricultural systems.Another study which is under revision in the journal PNAS, investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural welfare. The results of this paper are based on simulations with 20 different General Circulation Models (GCMs). This provides the opportunity to understand the uncertainty inherent in the different climate models better and improves the credibility of results.All mentioned articles and results are based on harmonized yield changes, which are a result of multi-model simulations, conducted in the framework of ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) and coordinated at PIK. These model results are publicly available (www.isi-mip.org) and part of an open source strategy of the institute. The modelling group around the agro-economic model MAgPIE (Model of Agriculture and its Impact on the Environment) currently discusses an open source strategy for publishing the model code. As a first step, a detailed description of the model will be available shortly (http://redmine.pik-potsdam.de/projects/magpie/wiki).PIK and the modelling group around MAgPIE have also contributed to the geoportal GLUES (Global Assessment of Land Use Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Ecosystem Services) where project partners can publish and share global and regional data sets as well as model results on scenarios of land use, climate change and economic development. MAgPIE results on landuse change, emissions and deforestation for different socio-economic scenarios have been made available there (http://catalog-glues.ufz.de/terraCatalog/Start.do;jsessionid=80F6A3D2C446674B898881D0589887E4). No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2112 |
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Palatnik, R.R. |
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Climate-dependent yields |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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D-T2.1 |
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In this report we summarize the contributions made by four groups to the subject of climate dependent yields. The first is by Waldemar Bojar, Leszek Knopik, Jacek Zarski, Cezary Slawinski, Piotr Baranowski and Wojciech Zarski on the subject of “the impact of extreme climate changes on the forecasted agriculture production”. It presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie (K&P) and Lubelskie regions, based on statistical databases and the literature review. In this study, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences and Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecasted agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the found dependencies’ yields – precipitation and the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices, areas of farmland and yields. The second contribution is by Bojar W., Knopik L. and Zarski J. on the subject of “integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability to use in food supply forecasting”. It examines the proposals to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods without rain. This model is based on a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. The third contribution is by Iddo Kan on the Vegetative Agricultural Land Use Economic (VALUE) model. It discusses the sub-task with respect to crops of statistically estimating with statistical methods predictions of expected crop-yield contingent on climate, soil and production cost for use in existing trade models, or refined versions thereof, and how VALUE can contribute to this sub-task. The fourth contribution was made by Christoph Muller and Richard D. Robertson on the subject of “projecting future crop productivity for global economic modelling”. It supplies a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2114 |
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Kjeldsen, C.; Sørensen, A.-M.L.; Dalgaard, T.; Graversgard, M. |
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Report on cross-cutting approaches for the assessment of climate change adaption on selected EU sites or hotspots and potentials for adaption and mitigation in the dairy sector |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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6 |
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D-L4.3 |
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Adaption to climate change in the context of agriculture involves collaborative planning and development of practices which is deemed more sustainable than preceeding practices. It is however not given that sustainable development will be the outcome of such efforts. In some cases, even motivated participants experience that despite good intentions, high levels of knowledge, feasible models, appropriate technologies and many other factors present, they still might not succeed bringing about the desired change. The reasons for this can not easily be reduced to just one factor, but is very likely to be the outcome of highly complex interactions between social, technological, institutional, or even personal factors. The report documents attempts to understand the complexities of climate change adaption in a Danish water catchment, Lundgaards Bæk, which is dominated by dairy farming. As part of the EU projects AQUARIUS and MACSUR, a local action group was formed which was composed of local farmers, local agricultural advisors, advisors from the national agricultural advisory service, environmental planners from the local municipality, and environmental planners from the national environmental agency in Denmark. The action group was supposed to develop specific measures, which were supposed to lead to an overall reduction in nitrogen loading of the neighboring fjord, Mariager Fjord. The report addresses three related research themes: (1) how do the stakeholders in question interact during the process of climate change adaption, (2) when do the stakeholders encounter opportunities and barriers during the process, and finally (3) does the adaption process in question lead to the desired outcomes? The empirical background of the report is a detailed process study of dynamics within a group of stakeholders, including farmers and extension officers, who were supposed to develop sustainable management practices in order to reduce nitrogen leaching to the Mariager Fjord. The study is based on the assumption that in order for research and policy to contribute to sustainable practices, deeper understanding of complex dynamics within stakeholder partnerships is needed. Based on a theoretical framework derived from social learning, adaptive co-management and Andrew Pickering’s notion of ‘the mangle’, different in-depth explanations to why sustainable development did not occur, are offered. One explanation concerns social-psychological dynamics of knowledge. Another explanation concerns the mechanisms by which social and material forces affect outcomes of the adaption process. The report concludes by exploring the study’s relevance in relation to policy, research and practice, followed by suggestions for further in-depth case studies and experimentation in practice. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2111 |
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Seddaiu, G.; Ruiu, M.L.; Kipling, R.P. |
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Report on Stakeholder Engagement Methodologies |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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4 |
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D-L4.2 |
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Stakeholder engagement in research projects can take a number of forms according to the scope of the project and the purpose of the interaction. L4.2. has focused on comparing different approaches to stakeholder engagement in collaborative projects. This report presents a synthesis of the experiences and lessons learnt through the stakeholder engagement activities of LiveM researchers within MACSUR, within an Italian (Oristano) case study, and within the SOLID (Sustainable, Organic and Low Input Dairying) project. An overview of these examples, and some of the lessons drawn from them, can also be found in the MACSUR paper on stakeholder engagement methods being developed by researchers from all three MACSUR themes (Koenig et al. under production). The first part of this report describes the stakeholder engagement strategy within the SOLID project. Stakeholder engagement methods are analysed through observations of activities and using semi-structured interviews with researchers and stakeholders. Two aspects of the SOLID approach are described – the stakeholder panel and the Future Dairying workshop. Transcripts of the workshop and the contribution of the stakeholder panel to the SOLID annual meeting in Helsinki are included (Appendices 1 and 2), as a contribution to the analysis of workshop outcomes being undertaken within the SOLID project. As part of a wider suite of stakeholder engagement activities, the SOLID stakeholder panel provided an example of how ongoing oversight of scientific outputs and direction by stakeholders can be effective in identifying weaknesses in approach and communication, and in suggesting relevant and effective directions for research activities. The stakeholder workshop demonstrated a useful structure for the exploration of stakeholder concerns, their view of ideal states and their solutions for reaching them. Low participation levels demonstrated the need to understand the motivations that drive stakeholders to engage in such projects, and highlighted the value of developing long-term relationships between stakeholders and researchers that allow scientific research to become an accepted part of practical problem-solving. The second part of the report describes stakeholder engagement activities carried out in the context of one of the MACSUR regional pilot studies (Oristanese case study in Sardinia, Italy). The Oristanese case study demonstrates the potentialities and constraints of participatory methodologies in relation to the different categories of stakeholder involved. It highlights the importance of creating new spaces for dialogue between farmers, researchers and policy makers in order to promote the generation of “hybrid knowledge” (Nguyen et al. 2013) for the emergence of more sustainable and longer-lasting strategies to adapt to CC. This would require the promotion of open knowledge generation platforms where multiple stakeholders are encouraged to participate and make their views heard. These approaches are designed in order to overcome the misalignment between scientists’ suggestions and policy implementation. In the third part of the report, the outcomes of a “learning event” held in Sassari (MACSUR mid-term meeting) with decision makers from different EU countries, are discussed. Finally, some reflections are presented on the importance of involving local stakeholders and decision makers in research projects, of sharing views and knowledge between scientists and stakeholders, and on the pros and cons of different methodologies at the different scales of stakeholder engagement, drawing on all three examples of practice. The research approach analysed includes two important components, which are represented by “transdisciplinarity” (to be included in the macro area of “scientific knowledge”) and “local knowledge”, as fundamental elements to fill the Science and Policy Gap. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2215 |
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