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Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Pasqui, M.; Primicerio, J.; Toscano, P.; Semenov, M.; Bindi, M. |
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Title |
Within-season predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin |
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2014 |
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Crop yield is the result of the interactions between weather in the incoming season and how farmers decide to manage and protect their crops. According to Jones et al. (2000), uncertainties in the weather of the forthcoming season leads farmers to lose some productivity by taking management decisions based on their own experience of the climate or by adopting conservative strategies aimed at reducing the risks. Accordingly, predicting crop yield in advance, in response to different managements, environments and weathers would assist farm-management decisions(Lawless and Semenov, 2005). Following the approach described by Semenov and Doblas-Reyes (2007), this study aimed at assessing the utility of different seasonal forecasting methodologies in predicting durum wheat yield at 10 different sites across the Mediterranean Basin. The crop model, SiriusQuality (Martre et al., 2006), was used to compute wheat yield over a 10-years period. First, the model was run with a set of observed weather data to calculate the reference yield distributions. Then, starting from 1st January, yield predictions were produced at a monthly time-step using seasonal forecasts. The results were compared with the reference yields to assess the efficacy of the forecasting methodologies to estimate within-season yields. The results indicate that durum wheat phenology and yield can be accurately predicted under Mediterranean conditions well before crop maturity, although some differences between the sites and the forecasting methodologies were revealed. Useful information can be thus provided for helping farmers to reduce negative impacts or take advantage from favorable conditions. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5142 |
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Dibari, C.; Argenti, G.; Catolfi, F.; Moriondo, M.; Staglianò, N.; Bindi, M. |
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Title |
Climate change impacts on natural pasturelands of Italian Apennines |
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2014 |
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As well as the entire Mediterranean area, the Italian Apennines have been affected by increasing temperatures, rainfall extreme events and decreases in annual precipitation due to climate change. Moreover, permanent grasslands, species-diverse ecosystems characterizing the marginal areas of the Apennines landscape, are acknowledged as very sensitive and vulnerable to climate variation. Building on these premises, statistical classification models coupled with data integration by GIS techniques, were used to territorially assess future climate change impacts on pastoral communities on the Italian Apennines chain. Specifically, a machine learning approach (Random Forest – RF), firstly calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM), was used to simulate potential expansion/reduction and/or altitudinal shifts of the Apennine pasturelands in two time slices, centred on 2050 and 2080, under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. RF classification model proved to be robust and very efficient to predict lands suited to pastures with regards to present period (classification error: 12%). Furthermore, according to RF simulations, relevant reductions (46 and 34%) of areas potentially suitable for pastoral resource are expected under A2 at the middle and end of the century, respectively, as depicted by the GCM and SRES scenarios. Moreover, progressive upwards shifts are predicted by the model under both SRES scenarios. These reductions will likely interest the central area of the chain threatening the typical and unique herbaceous biodiversity characterizing the Apennine pasturelands. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5062 |
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Daccache, A. |
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Title |
Assessing water and energy footprint of irrigated agriculture in the Mediterranean |
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2014 |
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Agriculture in the Mediterranean, one of the water scarcest regions in the world is by far the largest water consuming sector. Dwindling water supply, increase in drought frequency and uncertainties associated with climate change have raised the alerts on the region’s food security and environmental sustainability. In this study, a large geo-database of global climate, soil and crop were combined with national irrigation statistics to run a water balance model to estimate the theoretical irrigation volumetric needs of the Mediterranean main strategic crops and their relative CO2 emissions. When associated with the reported crop yield and water resources availability, the spatial variability of water (m3/kg) and energy (CO2/kg) productivity across the Mediterranean region are obtained and vulnerable areas are identified. The estimated total water needs for the Mediterranean irrigated agriculture under current climate, land cover and irrigation methods was estimated to be around 46km3/year releasing more than 3Mt of CO2 in the atmosphere only from water abstraction and farm application. Currently, 59% of total irrigation water needs are located in catchments that are classified as under high and extremely high water risk. With climate change, water resources are expected to become scarcer and agriculture more dependent on irrigation to satisfy the continuous increase in food demand. Adaptation and mitigation options to tackle water scarcity and improve productivity under current and future climate will be discussed. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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5056 |
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Author |
Schönhart, M.; Schauppenlehner, T.; Schmid, E. |
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Title |
Integrated land use modelling of climate change impacts – preliminary results from two Austrian case study landscapes |
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2014 |
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We present an integrated land use modelling framework (ILM) to analyze impacts of climate change and CAP reform as well as farm adaptation using economic, biotic and abiotic indicators at field, farm and landscape scales. The IML is applied on the two contrasting landscapes in the Austrian MACSUR regional pilot study. The scenarios cover climate and policy changes until 2040. The anticipated policy changes lead to declines in farm gross margins by -36% and -5% in the two landscapes, respectively. In contrast, climate change leads to higher gross margins, where farms can reach pre-reform levels on average. Environmental impacts such as removing of landscape elements and increasing fertilization can be moderated by an agri-environmental program, but the opportunity costs of program participation may increase. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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5091 |
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Author |
Curnel, Y.R.W. |
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Title |
Meteorological risks as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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The extreme weather events, projected to increase both in frequency and magnitude with climate change have significant impact on agro-ecosystem services and pose severe limitations to sustainable agricultural land management. The proposed activities start from the hypothesis that these meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management. These activities deal with risks associated with extreme weather phenomena and with risks of biological origin (e.g. pests and diseases). In order to reach this objective, the following elements of the chain of risk should be considered: • Hazard (assessment of the likely frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events)• Impact (analysis of the potential bio-physical and socio-economic impact of extreme weather events on agro-ecosystems)• Vulnerability (identification of the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems)• Risk Management (uncovering innovative risk management and adaptation options)These activities will concentrate on promoting a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. Impacts developed from physically based models will not only provide information on the state of the damage at any given time, but also assist in understanding the links between different factors causing damage and determining bio-physical vulnerability. Socio-economic impacts will enlarge the basis for vulnerability mapping, risk management and adaptation options. A strong expert and end-user network will be established to help exploiting project results to meet user needs |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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Series Volume |
3(S) Sassari, Italy |
Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
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Conference |
FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5101 |
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