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Dono, G. (2015). The economic impact of changes in climate variability on milk production in the area of Grana Padano (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Climate variability (CV) normally influences production and farm management, and climate change (CC) has precisely the effect of changing this variability. Thus, models that estimate the economic impact of CC, integrating with climatic models, agronomic, and livestock, must represent the implications of this variability on farm management. This study describes an economic model based on Discrete Stochastic Programming (DSP) which assesses the impact of CC on milk production in the Grana Padano area. The model is based on 23 farm typologies from FADN that represent 856 farms in Piacenza and Cremona, two of the most important provinces for Grana Padano production. The results of the model were projected at the regional scale. The climate scenarios, current and future, are generated with a Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The forage production under these scenarios is estimated with the EPIC agronomic model. Estimates on milk production and livestock mortality are based on studies conducted in the Po valley. The nutritional needs of the cattle are estimated with the CNCPS model. Probability distribution functions (PDF) express the relations between the CV and the productive variables under both climate scenarios. These PDFs represent the expectations of farmers on the productive-climate variability in the DSP model, which is PMP calibrated based on land distribution observed in a reference year. Comparing the model results in the two scenarios indicates the effects of CC, given the opportunity to adapt the use of resources and techniques of cultivation. The structure of the model, and its economic results are presented and discussed, along with the strengths and weaknesses of this approach. No Label
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Dono, G. (2015). Climate change impact on production and income of Mediterranean farming systems: a case study (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Adaptation to climate change calls for local responses. The impact of a 2020-30 climate scenario was assessed on a 54,000 ha Mediterranean district characterized by a variety of farming systems (FS), ranging from low-input rainfed (42% of the district area and 16% of the district net income) to high-input irrigated. Climate was generated with a Regional Atmospheric Modelling System nested into a full coupled atmosphere-ocean global simulation model, under the A1B emission scenario. Crop responses to climate were assessed using EPIC after calibration. The Temperature Humidity Index was used to assess the impact on dairy cow milk yield. Farmer choices were simulated on 13 representative FS by an hybrid model of supply, territory and farm. The adaptive choices were simulated through Discrete Stochastic Programming, fed by probability distribution functions output of crop and animal models. The expected decrease in spring rainfall (-33%) will affect hay-crop production and the net income (NI) of rainfed livestock farms (-5 to -12%). The increased summer temperature will affect dairy cows NI up to -5.9%. Rice production is expected to increase up to +10%. Overall, the NI of irrigated and rainfed farms will be -2.1% and -5.4% of the current NI respectively, with livestock FS being the most affected and rice and horticultural FS the most resilient. Results will provide an ideal mediating object for engaging policy makers and stakeholders in designing visionary adaptive strategies. No Label
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Dell’Unto, D. (2015). Modeling the effects of Climate Change on dairy farms: an integration of livestock and economic models (Vol. 5).
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Dalgaard, T. (2015). Models for regional scale farming system evaluation of climate change mitigation options and environmental impact assessment (Vol. 5).
Abstract: The aim of the present paper is to exemplify and discuss the importance of farm scale modeling in relation to The EU Joint Programming Initiative (JPI-FACCE) knowledge hub on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change project.In particular, livestock production systems include complex interactions, with non-linear relationships between input factors, production, emissions, local climate as well as natural resources (e.g. soil types, rotational land versus permanent grasslands etc.). Moreover, management options pursued by the different types of farmers and other relevant decision makers are important to integrate. Consequently, results of regional scale impact assessments depend on the farming systems model approach, the approach to upscale results, and the inclusion of the relevant stakeholders and decision makers at the scales considered.Different farming systems models are reviewed, including the existing dynamic and static biophysical models. Finally, procedures for upscaling and validity testing of synthesized model results at regional scales are presented. Based on a discussion of these procedures, recommendations for hot-spot analyses in farming systems with regard to integrated climate change adaptation and mitigation for a sustainable food production are synthesized, and the potentials for integration of recommended policies and farm management options into overarching models in order to assess their impact on the regional to global scales are discussed. No Label
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Dader, B. (2015). Elevated CO2 impacts bell pepper growth with consequences in the feeding behaviour and performance of the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Future CO2 predictions estimate an increase up to 550 ppm within only few decades away. Among the observed effects on plants, increasing CO2 stimulates growth, reduces stomatal conductance and transpiration, improves water-use efficiency and induces photosynthesis. These changes have an indirect impact on pest biology and behaviour, e.g. altering their population growth or feeding habits.Our first aim was to study the effect of ambient (400 ppm) (aCO2) and elevated CO2 (650 ppm) (eCO2) on pepper (Capsicum annuum L.). Height, leaf area, dry weight and leaf temperature by thermal imaging were measured. Chlorophyll was measured in SPAD units as an indirect indicator of nitrogen foliar content. Peppers under eCO2 were significantly taller although they had the same number of leaves than under aCO2. SPAD was significantly lower under eCO2. Leaf, stem and above-ground dry weight were significantly higher under eCO2. There was a significant decrease in specific leaf area under eCO2. Canopy temperature was 1.2 °C higher under eCO2.Secondly, pepper plants were used to assess the development and fecundity of M. persicae. The pre-reproductive period was 11% longer in eCO2 peppers. Aphids grew significantly slower and produced fewer nymphs under eCO2. Lastly, aphid feeding behaviour was studied using the Electrical Penetration Graph (EPG) technique, which provides a live visualization and recording of plant penetration by aphid mouthparts. EPG results will be presented and discussed. No Label
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