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Author |
Webber, H.; Ewert, F.; Olesen, J.E.; Müller, C.; Fronzek, S.; Ruane, A.C.; Bourgault, M.; Martre, P.; Ababaei, B.; Bindi, M.; Ferrise, R.; Finger, R.; Fodor, N.; Gabaldón-Leal, C.; Gaiser, T.; Jabloun, M.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Lizaso, J.I.; Lorite, I.J.; Manceau, L.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Rodríguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Siebert, S.; Stella, T.; Stratonovitch, P.; Trombi, G.; Wallach, D. |
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Title |
Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Nature Communications |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Comm. |
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Volume |
9 |
Issue |
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Pages |
4249 |
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Keywords |
Climate-Change Impacts; Air CO2 Enrichment; Food Security; Heat-Stress; Nitrogen Dynamics; Semiarid Environments; Canopy Temperature; Simulation-Model; Crop Production; Elevated CO2 |
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Abstract |
Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984-2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years. |
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2018-10-25 |
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ISSN |
2041-1723 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5211 |
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Author |
Mäkinen, H.; Kaseva, J.; Trnka, M.; Balek, J.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Gobin, A.; Olesen, J.E.; Bindi, M.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Takáč, J.; Bezák, P.; Ventrella, D.; Ruget, F.; Capellades, G.; Kahiluoto, H. |
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Title |
Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
222 |
Issue |
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Pages |
209-217 |
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Keywords |
European wheat; Cultivar; Weather; Extreme; Climate change; Yield response; High-Temperature; Heat-Stress; Use Efficiency; Growth-Stages; Winter-Wheat; Yield; Crop; Barley; Tolerance |
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Abstract |
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21 degrees to 61.34 degrees and longitudes- 6.02 degrees to 26.24 degrees) during the period 1991-2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (>= 31 degrees C, >= 35 degrees C, or drought around heading; >= 35 degrees C from heading to maturity; excessive rainfall; heavy rainfall and low global radiation) led to marked yield penalties in a selected set of European cultivars, whereas few cultivars were found to with no yield penalty in such conditions. There were no European wheat cultivars that responded positively (+ 10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (- 15 degrees C and – 20 degrees C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently, a major future breeding challenge will be to evaluate the potential of combining such cultivar properties with other properties required under different growing conditions with, for example, long day conditions at higher latitudes, when the intensity and frequency of extremes rapidly increase. |
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2018-06-05 |
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ISSN |
0378-4290 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5200 |
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Author |
Lizaso, J.I.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Rodriguez, L.; Gabaldon-Leal, C.; Oliveira, J.A.; Lorite, I.J.; Rodriguez, A.; Maddonni, G.A.; Otegui, M.E. |
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Title |
Modeling the response of maize phenology, kernel set, and yield components to heat stress and heat shock with CSM-IXIM |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
214 |
Issue |
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Pages |
239-252 |
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Keywords |
Heat stress, Maize; CSM-IXIM; CSM-CERES-maize; Beta function; CERES-MAIZE; DEVELOPMENTAL PROCESSES; TEMPERATURE RESPONSES; CROSS-VALIDATION; GRAIN-SORGHUM; GROWTH; SIMULATION; PLANTS; SENESCENCE; NITROGEN |
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Abstract |
The available evidence suggests that the current increasing trend in global surface temperatures will continue during this century, which will be accompanied by a greater frequency of extreme events. The IPCC has projected that higher temperatures may outscore the known optimal and maximum temperatures for maize. The purpose of this study was to improve the ability of the maize model CSM-IXIM to simulate crop development, growth, and yield under hot conditions, especially with regards to the impact of above-optimal temperatures around anthesis. Field and greenhouse experiments that were performed over three years (2014-2016) using the same short-season hybrid, PR37N01 (FAO 300), provided the data for this work. Maize was sown at a target population density of 5 plants M-2 on two sowing dates in 2014 and 2015 and on one in 2016 at three locations in Spain (northern, central, and southern Spain) with a well-defined thermal gradient. The same hybrid was also sown in two greenhouse chambers with daytime target temperatures of approximately 25 and above 35 degrees C. During the nighttime, the temperature in both chambers was allowed to equilibrate with the outside temperature. The greenhouse treatments consisted of moving 18 plants at selected phenological stages (V4, V9, anthesis, lag phase, early grain filling) from the cool chamber to the hot chamber over a week and then returning the plants back to the cool chamber. An additional control treatment remained in the cool chamber all season, and in 2015 and 2016, one treatment remained permanently in the hot chamber. Two maize models in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) V4.6 were compared, namely CERES and IXIM. The HUM version included additional components that were previously developed to improve the crop N simulation and to incorporate the anthesis-silking interval (ASI). A new thermal time calculation, a heat stress index, the impact of pollen-sterilizing temperatures, and the explicit simulation of male and female flowering as affected by the daily heat conditions were added to IXIM. The phenology simulation in field experiments by IXIM improved substantially. The RMSE for silking and maturity in CERES were 7.9 and 13.7 days, decreasing in DCIM to 2.8 and 7.3 days, respectively. Similarly, the estimated kernel numbers, kernel weight, grain yield and final biomass were always closer to the measurements in HUM than in CERES. The worst simulations were for kernel weight, and for that reason, the differences in grain yield between the models were small (the RMSE in CERES was 1219 kg ha(-1) vs. 1082 kg ha(-1) in IXIM). The greenhouse results also supported the improved estimations of crop development by IXIM (RMSE of 2.6 days) relative to CERES (7.4 days). The impact of the heat treatments on grain yield was consistently overestimated by CERES, while HUM captured the general trend. The new HUM model improved the CERES simulations when elevated temperatures were included in the evaluation data. Additional model testing with measurements from a wider latitudinal range and relevant heat conditions are required. |
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2017-11-24 |
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English |
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0378-4290 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5180 |
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Author |
Gabaldón-Leal, C.; Webber, H.; Otegui, M.E.; Slafer, G.A.; Ordonez, R.A.; Gaiser, T.; Lorite, I.J.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Modelling the impact of heat stress on maize yield formation |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
198 |
Issue |
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Pages |
226-237 |
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Keywords |
Heat stress; Maize; Zea mays (L); Crop models; HIGH-TEMPERATURE STRESS; KERNEL NUMBER; CROP GROWTH; GRAIN-YIELD; SIMULATION; CLIMATE; HYBRIDS; SET; VALIDATION; COMPONENTS |
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Abstract |
The frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature events are expected to increase with climate change. Higher temperatures near anthesis have a large negative effect on maize (Zea mays, L.) grain yield. While crop growth models are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on maize and other crops, it is only recently that they have accounted for such heat stress effects, despite limited field data availability for model evaluation. There is also increasing awareness but limited testing of the importance of canopy temperature as compared to air temperature for heat stress impact simulations. In this study, four independent irrigated field trials with controlled heating imposed using polyethylene shelters were used to develop and evaluate a heat stress response function in the crop modeling framework SIMPLACE, in which the Lintul5 crop model was combined with a canopy temperature model. A dataset from Argentina with the temperate hybrid Nidera AX 842 MG (RM 119) was used to develop a yield reduction function based on accumulated hourly stress thermal time above a critical temperature of 34 degrees C. A second dataset from Spain with a FAO 700 cultivar was used to evaluate the model with daily weather inputs in two sets of simulations. The first was used to calibrate SIMPLACE for conditions with no heat stress, and the second was used to evaluate SIMPLACE under conditions of heat stress using the reduction factor obtained with the Argentine dataset. Both sets of simulations were conducted twice; with the heat stress function alternatively driven with air and simulated canopy temperature. Grain yield simulated under heat stress conditions improved when canopy temperature was used instead of air temperature (RMSE equal to 175 and 309 g m(-2), respectively). For the irrigated and high radiative conditions, raising the critical threshold temperature for heat stress to 39 degrees C improved yield simulation using air temperature (RMSE: 221 gm(-2)) without the need to simulate canopy temperature (RMSE: 175 gm(-2)). However, this approach of adjusting thresholds is only likely to work in environments where climatic variables and the level of soil water deficit are constant, such as irrigated conditions and are not appropriate for rainfed production conditions. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-11-17 |
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English |
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0378-4290, 1872-6852 |
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Notes |
ft_macsur, CropM |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4880 |
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Author |
Tao, F.; Roetter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Diaz-Ambrona, C.G.H.; Ines Minguez, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Cammarano, D.; Hoffmann, H.; Ewert, F.; Dambreville, A.; Martre, P.; Rodriguez, L.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gaiser, T.; Hohn, J.G.; Salo, T.; Ferrise, R.; Bindi, M.; Schulman, A.H. |
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Title |
Designing future barley ideotypes using a crop model ensemble |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Europ. J. Agron. |
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Volume |
82 |
Issue |
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Pages |
144-162 |
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Keywords |
Water-Use Efficiency; Climate-Change; Nitrogen Dynamics; Systems; Simulation; Wheat Cultivars; Grain Weight; Yield; Growth; Fertilization; Adaptation; Adaptation; Breeding; Climate change; Crop simulation models; Impact; Genotype; Genetic traits |
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Abstract |
Climate change and its associated higher frequency and severity of adverse weather events require genotypic adaptation. Process-based ecophysiological modelling offers a powerful means to better target and accelerate development of new crop cultivars. Barley (Hordeum vulgare L) is an important crop throughout the world, and a good model for study of the genetics of stress adaptation because many quantitative trait loci and candidate genes for biotic and abiotic stress tolerance have been identified in it. Here, we developed a new approach to design future crop ideotypes using an ensemble of eight barley simulation models (i.e. APSIM, CropSyst, HERMES, MCWLA, MONICA, SIMPLACE, Sirius Quality, and WOFOST), and applied it to design climate-resilient barley ideotypes for Boreal and Mediterranean climatic zones in Europe. The results showed that specific barley genotypes, represented by sets of cultivar parameters in the crop models, could be promising under future climate change conditions, resulting in increased yields and low inter-annual yield variability. In contrast, other genotypes could result in substantial yield declines. The most favorable climate-zone-specific barley ideotypes were further proposed, having combinations of several key genetic traits in terms of phenology, leaf growth, photosynthesis, drought tolerance, and grain formation. For both Boreal and Mediterranean climatic zones, barley ideotypes under future climatic conditions should have a longer reproductive growing period, lower leaf senescence rate, larger radiation use efficiency or maximum assimilation rate, and higher drought tolerance. Such characteristics can produce substantial positive impacts on yields under contrasting conditions. Moreover, barley ideotypes should have a low photoperiod and high vernalization sensitivity for the Boreal climatic zone; for the Mediterranean, in contrast, it should have a low photoperiod and low vernalization sensitivity. The drought-tolerance trait is more beneficial for the Mediterranean than for the Boreal climatic zone. Our study demonstrates a sound approach to design future barley ideotypes based on an ensemble of well-tested, diverse crop models and on integration of knowledge from multiple disciplines. The robustness of model-aided ideotypes design can be further enhanced by continuously improving crop models and enhancing information exchange between modellers, agro-meteorologists, geneticists, physiologists, and plant breeders. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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Address |
2017-01-20 |
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English |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1161-0301 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_MACSUR |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4935 |
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