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Gutzler, C.; Helming, K.; Balla, D.; Dannowski, R.; Deumlich, D.; Glemnitz, M.; Knierim, A.; Mirschel, W.; Nendel, C.; Paul, C.; Sieber, S.; Stachow, U.; Starick, A.; Wieland, R.; Wurbs, A.; Zander, P. |
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Title |
Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Ecological Indicators |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecological Indicators |
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48 |
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505-517 |
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scenarios; impact assessment; agricultural intensification; land use change; irrigation; bioenergy; social and environmental indicators; climate-change; landscape; model |
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Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government. The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5 million tons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials. In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
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1470-160x |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4561 |
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Helming, K.; Podhora, A.; König, H. |
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Title |
Policy impact assessment – a venue for the science policy interface |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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Policy making aims to align agricultural production with multifunctional services such as environmental conservation, rural development, and economic competitiveness. Policies counteract or reinforce external driving forces such as climate change, global economic developments, demography, consumption patterns. They considerably affect decision making of farmers. Because of the interaction and non-linear feedback loops with socio-economic and geophysical processes of the land use systems, policies are difficult to design, and their impacts are difficult to anticipate. The policy making community articulates an emerging demand for science based evidence in support of the policy process. Ex-ante impact assessment of policy making provides the legal basis to fuel scientific evidence into the policy process. For researchers, impact assessment is a means to structure the analysis of human-environment interactions. For policy makers, impact assessment is a means to better target policy decisions towards sustainable development. The integration of both requires a mutual understanding of the respective objectives and operational restrictions within the scientific and policy-making domains. This paper provides insight into the process of policy impact assessment and how research based methods and tools can best feed into it. Three aspects are outlined: the co-design of the assessment between policy makers and researchers; the integration of quantitative analysis with participatory valuation methods; and the robustness and transparency of the analytical methods. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5112 |
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Helming, K.; Janssen, S. |
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Title |
LIAISE – Linking Impact Assessment instruments with sustainability expertise |
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2014 |
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Impact Assessment for Sustainable Development: Knowledge Systems for the Future The ex ante Impact Asssessment of planned policies has developed as an important part of policy making within the European institutions as well as in Member States. The analysis of expected economic, social and environmental impacts informs the decision making. Collecting relevant and trustworthy evidence is a challenge for policy decisions. At the same time, Impact Assessment is an opportunity for researchers, research organisations and funding agencies to develop knowledge relevant for societal decision making.As a European research consortium LIAISE investigated over the past 4.5 years the Impact Assessment (IA) practices in relation to Sustainable Development (SD). Specific attention was given to the question how the process of IA in various venues (i.e. nation states, supra national organizations and local organizations) is related to the processes of research and knowledge production. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5096 |
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König, H.; Helming, K.; Ayalon, O.; Benami, E.; Palatnik, R.R. |
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Curriculum for training course on policy impact assessment |
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2014 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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3 |
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D-T4.1 |
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A one-week MACSUR training course on policy impact assessment was held in March 2014 at Haifa University in Israel. The course was organised by ZALF (Hannes König, Katharina Helming) and Haifa University (Ofira Ayalon, Edan Benami, Ruslana Palatnik), targeting at the participation of Post-Docs and PhD students associated to the MACSUR consortium. The Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) was used as the main method for the course to support structuring the policy impact assessment. The Israelian MACSUR case study of the Ramat Menashe Biosphere was used the test case of assessing alternative policy options and sustainability trade-offs. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2236 |
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Köchy, M.; Bishop, J.; Lehtonen, H.; Scollan, N.; Webber, H.; Zimmermann, A.; Bellocchi, G.; Bannink, A.; Biewald, A.; Ferrise, R.; Helming, K.; Kipling, R.P.; Milford, A.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Curth-van Middelkoop, J. |
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Title |
Challenges and research gaps in the area of integrated climate change risk assessment for European agriculture and food security |
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Report |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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10 |
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H0.1-D |
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Priorities in addressing research gaps and challenges should follow the order of importance, which in itself would be a matter of defining goals and metrics of importance, e.g. the extent, impact and likelihood of occurrence. For improving assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture for achieving food security and other sustainable development goals across the European continent, the most important research gaps and challenges appear to be the agreement on goals with a wide range of stakeholders from policy, science, producers and society, better reflection of political and societal preferences in the modelling process, and the reflection of economic decisions in farm management within models. These and other challenges could be approached in phase 3 of MACSUR. |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4950 |
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