Records |
Author |
Bojar, W.; Żarski, J.; Knopik, L.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R.; Sikora, M.; Dzieża, G. |
Title |
Markov Chain as a Model of Daily Total Precipitation and a Prediction of Future Natural Events |
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Conference Article |
Year |
2016 |
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Berlin (Germany) |
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International Crop Modelling Symposium iCROPM 2016, 2016-05-15 to 2016-05-17, Berlin, Germany |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4911 |
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Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Sławiński, C.; Baranowski, P.; Żarski, W. |
Title |
Impact of extreme climate changes on the forecasted agriculture production |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Acta Agrophysica |
Abbreviated Journal |
Acta Agrophysica |
Volume |
21 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
415-431 |
Keywords |
agricultural economics; agriculture; climate change; crop production; integrating assessments |
Abstract |
The paper presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Lubelskie Regions, based on statistical databases and literature review. Some specific features of the regions, with special consideration for the predicted extreme climate changes, are also included. Next, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences, Bydgoszcz, and the Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Creating an appropriate method of forecasting long series of ten days without precipitation was necessary to find the desired dependencies. Third, some efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecast agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the yield-precipitation relations obtained and on the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices of farmland and produce. |
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English |
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Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4619 |
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Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R. |
Title |
Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
Volume |
61 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
502-510 |
Keywords |
climate changes; decision-making tools; estimation of parameters; forecasted outputs; gamma distribution; predicting yields; climate-change; emissions scenarios; impacts; potato; yield; growth; policy; scale; water |
Abstract |
Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of our research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, we analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate parameters of the distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed using a method of maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of stored raw food materials and import/export policies. |
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English |
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0139-570x |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4644 |
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