| Records |
| Author |
Fetzel et al. |
| Title |
Towards sustainable livestock production systems: Analyzing ecological constraints to grazing intensity |
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Report |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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| Volume |
8 |
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Pages |
SP8-8 |
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Conference presentation PDF |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4833 |
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| Author |
Foskolis, A.; Moorby, J. |
| Title |
Lifetime nitrogen efficiency of dairy cattle: Model description and sensitivity analysis |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
8 |
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Pages |
SP8-9 |
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Conference poster PDF |
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LiveM2016: International livestock modelling conference – Modelling grassland-livestock systems under climate change |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4842 |
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| Author |
Knox, J.; Daccache, A.; Hess, T.; Haro, D. |
| Title |
Meta-analysis of climate impacts and uncertainty on crop yields in Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
| Volume |
11 |
Issue |
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Pages |
113004 |
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| Abstract |
Future changes in temperature, rainfall and soil moisture could threaten agricultural land use and crop productivity in Europe, with major consequences for food security. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven major crop types (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) grown in Europe using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 41 original publications from an initial screening of 1748 studies. Our approach adopted an established SR procedure developed by the Centre for Evidence Based Conservation constrained by inclusion criteria and defined methods for literature searches, data extraction, meta-analysis and synthesis. Whilst similar studies exist to assess climate impacts on crop yield in Africa and South Asia, surprisingly, no comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Based on the reported results (n = 729) we show that the projected change in average yield in Europe for the seven crops by the 2050s is +8%. For wheat and sugar beet, average yield changes of +14% and +15% are projected, respectively. There were strong regional differences with crop impacts in northern Europe being higher (+14%) and more variable compared to central (+6%) and southern (+5) Europe. Maize is projected to suffer the largest negative mean change in southern Europe (−11%). Evidence of climate impacts on yield was extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato, but very limited for barley, rice and rye. The implications for supporting climate adaptation policy and informing climate impacts crop science research in Europe are discussed. |
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1748-9326 |
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| Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5011 |
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| Author |
Jägermeyr, J.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Heinke, J.; Lucht, W.; Rockström, J. |
| Title |
Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
| Volume |
11 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
025002 |
| Keywords |
sustainable intensification; yield gap; water harvesting; conservation agriculture; irrigation efficiency; food security; climate change adaptation; sub-saharan africa; rain-fed agriculture; dry-spell mitigation; supplemental irrigation; climate-change; smallholder irrigation; environmental impacts; developing-countries; semiarid region; south-africa |
| Abstract |
As planetary boundaries are rapidly being approached, humanity has little room for additional expansion and conventional intensification of agriculture, while a growing world population further spreads the food gap. Ample evidence exists that improved on-farm water management can close water-related yield gaps to a considerable degree, but its global significance remains unclear. In this modeling study we investigate systematically to what extent integrated crop water management might contribute to closing the global food gap, constrained by the assumption that pressure on water resources and land does not increase. Using a process-based bio-/agrosphere model, we simulate the yield-increasing potential of elevated irrigation water productivity (including irrigation expansion with thus saved water) and optimized use of in situ precipitation water (alleviated soil evaporation, enhanced infiltration, water harvesting for supplemental irrigation) under current and projected future climate (from 20 climate models, with and without beneficial CO2 effects). Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements can save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an ‘ambitious’ scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighboring rainfed systems, can boost kcal production significantly (26% global increase). Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, the ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies explored in this study could increase global production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Unabated climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but improvements in water management as analyzed here can buffer such effects to a significant degree. |
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English |
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1748-9326 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, TradeM |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4733 |
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| Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R. |
| Title |
Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
| Volume |
61 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
502-510 |
| Keywords |
climate changes; decision-making tools; estimation of parameters; forecasted outputs; gamma distribution; predicting yields; climate-change; emissions scenarios; impacts; potato; yield; growth; policy; scale; water |
| Abstract |
Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of our research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, we analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate parameters of the distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed using a method of maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of stored raw food materials and import/export policies. |
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| ISSN |
0139-570x |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4644 |
| Permanent link to this record |
