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Semenov, M. A., & Stratonovitch, P. (2013). Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate. Food Energy Secur., 2(3), 185–196.
Abstract: Global warming is characterized by shifts in weather patterns and increases in climatic variability and extreme events. New wheat cultivars will be required for a rapidly changing environment, putting severe pressure on breeders who must select for climate conditions which can only be predicted with a great degree of uncertainty. To assist breeders to identify key wheat traits for improvements under climate change, wheat ideotypes can be designed and tested in silico using a wheat simulation model for a wide range of future climate scenarios predicted by global climate models. A wheat ideotype is represented by a set of cultivar parameters in a model, which could be optimized for best wheat performance under projected climate change. As an example, high-yielding wheat ideotypes were designed at two contrasting European sites for the 2050 (A1B) climate scenario. Simulations showed that wheat yield potential can be substantially increased for new ideotypes compared with current wheat varieties under climate change. The main factors contributing to yield increase were improvement in light conversion efficiency, extended duration of grain filling resulting in a higher harvest index, and optimal phenology.
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Rötter, R. P., Höhn, J., Trnka, M., Fronzek, S., Carter, T. R., & Kahiluoto, H. (2013). Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change. Ecol. Evol., 3(12), 4197–4214.
Abstract: THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.
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Rocca, A., Bellocchi, G., Giussani, A., Sanna, M., Perego, A., Fumagalli, M., et al. (2013). Correlation between evaluation model indicators..
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Rötter, R. P., & et, A. (2013). Uncertainties in modelling impacts of climate change and variability on crop production – focus on Europea-led efforts in FACCE MACSUR..
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Rötter, P., & Höhn, J. (2013). Climate change impacts on crop production and its variability in Europe: an overview..
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