Abstract: Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

Abstract: Improving health and welfare is an important adaptation and mitigation strategyDeveloping process based modelling, responsive to adaptationLinks to climate and land use change modelling are essential Livestock systems likely to be hit hardest by climate changeNeed to develop animal health models that respond to adaptation by farmersBringing together direct and indirect impacts of climate change vitalAdaptation and mitigation need to be considered and modelled togetherLinking models across scales is important to support policy decisionsLearning between sectors carries potential for novel solutions and methodological advancesEffective communication of outcomes to stakeholders (how?) No Label