MACSUR Literature Database -- Query Results

Rivington, M., & Wallach, D. (2015). Information to support input data quality and model improvement (Vol. 6). Abstract: Data quality is a key factor in determining the quality of model estimates and hence a models’ overall utility. Good models run with poor quality explanatory variables and parameters will produce meaningless estimates. Many models are now well developed and have been shown to perform well where and when good quality data is available. Hence a major limitation now to further use of models in new locations and applications is likely to be the availability of good quality data. Improvements in the quality of data may be seen as the starting point of further model improvement, in that better data itself will lead to more accurate model estimates (i.e. through better calibration), and it will facilitate reduction of model residual error by enabling refinements to model equations. This report sets out why data quality is important as well as the basis for additional investment in improving data quality. No Label http://reference.macsur.eu/show.php?record=2103
Rivington, M., & Wallach, D. (2015). Communication strategy, including design of tools for more effective communication of uncertainty (Vol. 6). Abstract: Communication is the key link between the generation of information by MACSUR about the uncertainty of climate change impacts on future food security and how information is used by decision makers. It is therefore important to make available the common tools for reporting uncertainty, with a discussion of the advantages or difficulties of each. That is the purpose of this report. No Label http://reference.macsur.eu/show.php?record=2099
Wallach, D., & Rivington, M. (2015). Standardised methods and protocols based on current best practices to conduct sensitivity analysis (Vol. 6). Abstract: The purpose of this report is to propose a general procedure for sensitivity analysis when used to evaluate system sensitivity to climate change, including uncertainty information. While sensitivity analysis has been largely used to evaluate how uncertainties in inputs or parameters propagate through the model and manifest themselves in uncertainties in model outputs, there is much less experience with sensitivity analysis as a tool for studying how sensitive a system is to changes in inputs. This report should help make clear the differences between these two uses of sensitivity analysis, and provide guidance as to the procedure for using sensitivity analysis for evaluating system sensitivity to climate change. No Label http://reference.macsur.eu/show.php?record=2100
Wallach, D., & Rivington, M. (2015). Identification and quantification of differences between models (Vol. 6). Abstract: A major goal of crop model inter-comparison is model improvement, and an important intermediate step toward that goal is understanding in some detail how models differ, and the consequences of those differences. This report is intended as a first attempt at describing possible techniques for relating differences between model outputs to specific aspects of the models. No Label http://reference.macsur.eu/show.php?record=2101
Reidsma, P., Wolf, J., Kanellopoulos, A., Schaap, B. F., Mandryk, M., Verhagen, J., et al. (2015). Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands (Vol. 6). Abstract: Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that 1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and 2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world. No Label http://reference.macsur.eu/show.php?record=2097

Rivington, M., & Wallach, D. (2015). Information to support input data quality and model improvement (Vol. 6).

Rivington, M., & Wallach, D. (2015). Communication strategy, including design of tools for more effective communication of uncertainty (Vol. 6).

Wallach, D., & Rivington, M. (2015). Standardised methods and protocols based on current best practices to conduct sensitivity analysis (Vol. 6).

Wallach, D., & Rivington, M. (2015). Identification and quantification of differences between models (Vol. 6).

Reidsma, P., Wolf, J., Kanellopoulos, A., Schaap, B. F., Mandryk, M., Verhagen, J., et al. (2015). Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands (Vol. 6).