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Sandars, D. (2015). Understanding Europe’s future ability to feed itself within an uncertain climate change and socio economic scenario space (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Europe’s ability to feed its population depends on the balance of agricultural productivity (yields and land suitability) and demand which are affected by future climate and socio-economic change (arising from changing food demand; prices; technology change etc). Land use under 2050 climate change and socio-economic scenarios can be rapidly and systematically quantified with a modelling system that has been developed from meta-models of optimal cropping and crop and forest yields derived from the outputs of the previously developed complex models (Audsley et al; 2015). Profitability of each possible land use is modelled for every soil in every grid across the EU. Land use in a grid is then allocated based on profit thresholds set for intensive agriculture extensive agriculture, managed forest and finally unmanaged forest or unmanaged land. The European demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available. The model iterates until demand is satisfied (or cannot be met at any price). Results are presented as contour plots of key variables. For example, given a 40% increase in population from the baseline socio-economic scenario, adapting by increasing crop yields by 40% will leave a 38% probability that the 2050 future climate will be such that we cannot feed ourselves – considering “all” the possible climate scenarios. No Label
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Sándor, R. (2015). Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of grassland models in Europe and Israel (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Grassland models are valuable tools to test hypotheses on grassland ecosystem functioning. In the frame of FACCE MACSUR LiveM, a model intercomparison was conducted using a dataset from an observational and experimental network of nine multi-year grassland sites spread across Europe (France, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands, and United Kingdom) and Israel, and a suite of nine models to understand grassland functioning in the region. Grassland-specific approaches were compared to approaches mainly conceived to simulate crops and plant functional types. Model evaluation against actual measurements was performed before and after model calibration. The calibrated models were used to analyze their sensitivity to independent variations of temperature, precipitation and [CO2]. The results show to which extent calibration can accommodate model discrepancies. The sensitivity of simulated gross primary production to [CO2] and temperature is an important outcome, considering the fundamental effect of rising temperature and [CO2] on the C cycling of terrestrial ecosystems in the Euro-Mediterranean region. Overall, alternative models exhibit a different sensitivity to climate change factors, with different performances over different conditions. Explained by the basic processes of each model and also induced by different calibration methods, this difference is indicative that more models can be complementary and deliver greater insights than if they were applied individually. No Label
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Saetnan, E. (2015). Are we building a better connected community (Vol. 5).
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Rusu, T. (2015). Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Technology Management in the Transylvanian Plain, Romania (Vol. 5).
Abstract: The condition of land degradation in Transylvanian Plain and its effects, being the result of local extreme physical-geographical conditions, susceptible to degradation (evidenced by the erodibility index), which overlap the extreme climatic conditions. Thermal and hydric regime monitoring is necessary in order to identify and implement measures of adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Soil moisture and temperature regimes were evaluated using a set of 20 data logging stations positioned throughout the plain. Each station stores electronic data of ground temperature at 3 depths (10, 30, 50 cm), the humidity at the depth of 10 cm, the air temperature (at 1 m) and precipitations. Climate change in the past few years have significantly altered the climatic indicators of the Transylvanian Plain. Precipitations, although deficient in terms of annual amounts, through their regime, have a negative influence on the plant carpet. Pluvial aggressiveness index reveals, for the research period, a first peak of pluvial aggressiveness during the months of February-April, then in July and in autumn, the months of October-November. This requires special measures for soil conservation, both in autumn and early spring, soil tillage measures being recommended which ensure the presence of plant debris and vegetation in early spring but especially in summer and autumn. Climatic indicators determined for the period 2009-2013 point out, in Transylvanian Plain, a semi-arid and mediterranean climate through the rain factor Lang, respectively semi-arid (in the South), semi-humid (in the North) according to the De Martonne index. This climatic characterization requires special technological measures for soil conservation (green curtains, green manure, no-tillage and minimum tillage with mulch layer). The biologically active temperature recorded in the TP demonstrates the need to renew the division of the crop areas reported in the literature. No Label
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Ruiz-Ramos, M. (2015). Simulating wheat adaptation to climate change in Europe using an ensemble approach with impact response surfaces (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Adaptation can reduce climate change risks to crop production and is best analyzed at local scales considering regional specificities. Uncertainty inherent in modelling adaptation options is due to climate projections, downscaling and imperfections of crop models. The challenge of making effective adaptation decisions requires powerful approaches for exploiting the potential of genotype by environment by management interactions, and for generating projections informed with uncertainty.Here we present a methodology that constructs impact response surfaces (IRSs) from an ensemble of crop models and applies these to explore the adaptation potential of rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain) in a water-limited environment. The simulation experiment includes: 1) a systematic sensitivity analysis to changes to baseline temperature and precipitation (1981-2010) through a delta change approach that accounts for seasonal differences, 2) three levels of CO2 representing present-day and future conditions until 2050 (A1B scenario), and 3) soil profiles representative for the variable conditions around Lleida. The adaptation simulations represent adjusted management practices about sowing, supplementary irrigation, and the thermal and vernalisation requirements of cultivars used.A pre-selection of the adaptation options was done iteratively, in ranges supported by literature review of crop adaptation in the Mediterranean (e.g. shifts from current sowing date between -30 and +45 days). This procedure allowed to identify a limited number of effective and feasible adaptations to be evaluated combining IRSs and probabilistic projections of climate change. No Label
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