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Topp, K.; Eory, V.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D.J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.; Cortignani, R.; Del Prado, A.; Dono, G.; Faverdin, P.; Graux, A.-I.; Hutchings, N.; Lauwers, L.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Rolinski, S.; Ruiz Ramos, M.; Sandars, D.L.; Sándor, R.; Schoenhart, M.; Seddaiu, G.; van Middelkoop, J.; Weindl, I.; Kipling, R.P. |
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Title |
Modelling climate change adaptation in European agriculture: Definitions and Current Modelling |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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L2.3.2-D |
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Confidential content, in preparation for a peer-reviewed publication. |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4959 |
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Hlavinka, P.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Trnka, M.; Pohankova, E.; Stella, T.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Hoogenbom, G.; Shelia, V.; Nendel, C.; Wimmerová, M.; Topaj, A.; Medvedev, S.; Ventrella, D.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Rodríguez Sánchez, A.; Takáč, J.; Patil, R.H.; Öztürk, I.; Hoffmann, M.; Gobin, A.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Modelling long term effects of cropping and managements systems on soil organic matter, C/N dynamics and crop growth |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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10 |
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C1.3-D |
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While simulation of cropping systems over a few years might reflect well the short term effects of management and cultivation, long term effects on soil properties and their consequences for crop growth and matter fluxes are not captured. Especially the effect on soil carbon sequestration/depletion is addressed by this task. Simulations of an ensemble of crop models are performed as transient runs over a period of 120 year using observed weather from three stations in Czech Republic (1961-2010) and transient long time climate change scenarios (2011-2080) from five GCM of the CMIP5 ensemble to assess the effect of different cropping and management systems on carbon sequestration, matter fluxes and crop production in an integrative way. Two cropping systems are regarded comprising two times winter wheat, silage maize, spring barley and oilseed rape. Crop rotations differ regarding their organic input from crop residues, nitrogen fertilization and implementation of catch crops. Models are applied for two soil types with different water holding capacity. Cultivation and nutrient management is adapted using management rules related to weather and soil conditions. Data of phenology and crop yield from the region of the regarded crops were provided to calibrate the models for crops of the rotations. Twelve models were calibrated in this first step. For the transient long term runs results of four models were submitted so far. Outputs are crop yields, nitrogen uptake, soil water and mineral nitrogen contents, as well as water and nitrogen fluxes to the atmosphere and groundwater. Changes in the carbon stocks and the consequences for nitrogen mineralisation, N fertilization and emissions also considered. |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4976 |
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Leolini, L.; Moriondo, M.; De Cortazar-Atauri, I.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Spanna, F.; Ramos, M.C.; Costafreda-Aumedes, S.; Ferrise, R.; Bindi, M. |
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Modelling different cropping systems |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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10 |
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C1.4-D |
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Grapevine is a worldwide valuable crop characterized by a high economic importance for the production of high quality wines. However, the impact of climate change on the narrow climate niches in which grapevine is currently cultivated constitute a great risk for future suitability of grapevine. In this context, grape simulation models are considered promising tools for their contribution to investigate plant behavior in different environments. In this study, six models developed for simulating grapevine growth and development were tested by focusing on their performances in simulating main grapevine processes under two calibration levels: minimum and full calibration. This would help to evaluate major limitations/strength points of these models, especially in the view of their application to climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Preliminary results from two models (GrapeModel and STICS) showed contrasting abilities in reproducing the observed data depending on the site, the year and the target variable considered. These results suggest that a limited dataset for model calibration would lead to poor simulation outputs. However, a more complete interpretation and detailed analysis of the results will be provided when considering the other models simulations. |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5033 |
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Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Dosio, A.; Goodess, C.M.; Harpham, C.; Minguez, M.I.; Sanchez, E. |
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Comparing correction methods of RCM outputs for improving crop impact projections in the Iberian Peninsula for 21st century |
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2016 |
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Climatic Change |
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Clim. Change |
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134 |
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1-2 |
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283-297 |
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regional climate model; bias correction; weather generator; circulation model; simulations; temperature; precipitation; ensemble; uncertainty; extremes |
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Assessment of climate change impacts on crops in regions of complex orography such as the Iberian Peninsula (IP) requires climate model output which is able to describe accurately the observed climate. The high resolution of output provided by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is expected to be a suitable tool to describe regional and local climatic features, although their simulation results may still present biases. For these reasons, we compared several post-processing methods to correct or reduce the biases of RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES project for the IP. The bias-corrected datasets were also evaluated in terms of their applicability and consequences in improving the results of a crop model to simulate maize growth and development at two IP locations, using this crop as a reference for summer cropping systems in the region. The use of bias-corrected climate runs improved crop phenology and yield simulation overall and reduced the inter-model variability and thus the uncertainty. The number of observational stations underlying each reference observational dataset used to correct the bias affected the correction performance. Although no single technique showed to be the best one, some methods proved to be more adequate for small initial biases, while others were useful when initial biases were so large as to prevent data application for impact studies. An initial evaluation of the climate data, the bias correction/reduction method and the consequences for impact assessment would be needed to design the most robust, reduced uncertainty ensemble for a specific combination of location, crop, and crop management. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0165-0009 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4805 |
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Gabaldón-Leal, C.; Lorite, I.J.; Mínguez, M.I.; Lizaso, J.I.; Dosio, A.; Sanchez, E.; Ruiz-Ramos, M. |
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Strategies for adapting maize to climate change and extreme temperatures in Andalusia, Spain |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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65 |
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159-173 |
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climate change; impact; adaptation; maize; crop model; regional climate model; extreme temperature; elevated carbon-dioxide; iberian peninsula; future climate; mediterranean environment; crop productivity; model simulations; pollen viability; european climate; bias correction; change impacts |
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Climate projections indicate that rising temperatures will affect summer crops in the southern Iberian Peninsula. The aim of this study was to obtain projections of the impacts of rising temperatures, and of higher frequency of extreme events on irrigated maize, and to evaluate some adaptation strategies. The study was conducted at several locations in Andalusia using the CERES-Maize crop model, previously calibrated/validated with local experimental datasets. The simulated climate consisted of projections from regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; these were corrected for daily temperature and precipitation with regard to the E-OBS observational dataset. These bias-corrected projections were used with the CERES-Maize model to generate future impacts. Crop model results showed a decrease in maize yield by the end of the 21st century from 6 to 20%, a decrease of up to 25% in irrigation water requirements, and an increase in irrigation water productivity of up to 22%, due to earlier maturity dates and stomatal closure caused by CO2 increase. When adaptation strategies combining earlier sowing dates and cultivar changes were considered, impacts were compensated, and maize yield increased up to 14%, compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), with similar reductions in crop irrigation water requirements. Effects of extreme maximum temperatures rose to 40% at the end of the 21st century, compared with the baseline. Adaptation resulted in an overall reduction in extreme T-max damages in all locations, with the exception of Granada, where losses were limited to 8%. |
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2016-06-01 |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4738 |
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