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Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Zarski, J. |
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Title |
Integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability for use in food supply forecasting |
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2014 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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3 |
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Sp3-7 |
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Climate change suggests long periods without rainfall will occur in the future quite often. Previous approach on dependence crop-yields from size of rain confirms the existence of a statistically significant relation. We built a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods of drought, using a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed from rainfall data using the method of maximum likelihood. Long series of days or decades of drought allow to determine the probabilities of adverse developments in agriculture as the basis for forecasting crop yields in the future (years 2030, 2050). Forecasted yields can be used for assessment of productivity and profitability of some selected crops in Kujavian-Pomeranian region. Assumptions and parameters of large-scale spatial economic models will be applied to build up relevant solutions. Calculated with this approach output could be useful to expect decrease in agricultural output in the region. It will enable to shape effective agricultural policy to know how to balance food supply and demand through appropriate managing with stored food raw material and/or import/export policies. Used precipitation-yields dependencies method let verify earlier used methodology through comparison of obtained solutions concerning forecasted yields and closed to it uncertainty analysis.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2224 |
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Author |
Bojar, W. |
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Title |
Short information on progress in MACSUR |
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Report |
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2014 |
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68 C6 - |
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63 |
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TradeM |
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2075 |
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Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Zarski, J. |
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Analiza wplywu warunków klimatycznych na plonowanie roslin uprawnych w regionie kujawsko-pomorskim (Analysis of impact of climate conditions on yielding of crops in Kujavian & Pomeranian region) |
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2013 |
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Studies & Proceedings of Polish Association for Knowledge Management |
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64 |
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31-44 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2070 |
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Bojar, W.; Verburg, R.; Zarski, J.; Brouwer, F. |
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Circumstances of climatic changes impacts on agricultural production taking attention regional characteristics |
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2012 |
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Studies & Proceedings of Polish Association for Knowledge Management |
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61 |
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29-44 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2066 |
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