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Author |
Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Sinabell, F. |
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Title |
Integrated modelling of protein crop production responses to climate change and agricultural policy scenarios in Austria |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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65 |
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205-220 |
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Keywords |
Climate change impact; Adaptation; Soybean; EPIC; Common Agricultural Policy; Land use |
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Abstract |
Climate and policy changes are likely to affect protein crop production and thus trade balances in Europe, which is highly dependent on imports. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we developed an integrated modelling framework to analyze climate change and policy scenario impacts on protein crop production and environmental outcomes. The integrated modelling framework consists of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. EPIC is applied to simulate annual dry matter crop yields for different crop management practices including crop rotations, fertilization intensities, and irrigation, as well as for 3 regional climate change scenarios until 2040 at a 1 km grid resolution. BiomAT maximizes total gross margins by optimizing land use choices and crop management practices subject to spatially explicit cropland endowments. The model results indicate that changes in agricultural policy conditions, cropland use, and higher flexibility in crop management practices may reduce protein import dependence under changing climatic conditions. Expanding protein crop production is most attractive in south-eastern Austria with its Central European continental climate where maize is most often replaced in crop rotations. However, the acreage of protein crops is limited by agronomically suitable cropland. An intended side effect is the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer inputs by about 0.1% if total protein crop production increases by 1%. |
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0936-577x |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5012 |
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Author |
Ahmadi, V. |
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Title |
Impacts of Common Agricultural Policy 2015 reforms on animal health and welfare of Scottish dairy herds |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-1 |
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The latest Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2015 reforms bring a substantial change in the way farm support is paid in Scotland where previous direct CAP payments were largely based on historical entitlements. Under the new payment scheme, three rates of payment are designated based on land uses and capabilities. As a result, it is anticipated that, average large dairy farms will lose out up to 32% of their farm net margins, while small dairy farms will lose out between 7-20% of their farm net margins. Such reductions of payment support may force dairy farmers to cut costs of production on farms especially livestock variable costs including labour costs and costs of prevention, control, treatment and management of livestock diseases and welfare conditions. This will have direct and indirect consequences on health and welfare of dairy cattle. This study aims to assess the impact of new support payments under CAP 2015 reforms on financial capabilities of dairy herds in tackling three conditions namely: infertility, mastitis and lameness. A detailed inventory of 42 commercial dairy farms in Scotland that contains both physical (i.e. farm area, nutrition and labour supply, etc.) and health data collected in 2013 and was used to parameterise an optimisation model. The model is a linear programme (LP) model which optimises farm net margin under limiting farm resources. The model also consists of feed demand and supply components that are used to determine monthly feed requirements for each of the animals on a farm as well as grass yield for pasture area of the land. The model is run for both ‘healthy’ and ‘diseased’ herds under previous and future CAP support payments. Details of the model and the dataset used as well as some results will be presented at the conference. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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2273 |
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Author |
Zander, P. |
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Modelling regional agricultural land use and climate change adaptation strategies in 4 case study regions Northern Germany |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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4 |
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SP4-22 |
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TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, 25–27 November 2014, Hurdalsjø, Norway |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2212 |
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Author |
Steen, M. |
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Title |
Warmer, Wetter, Wilder? Climatic Evidence from the Grain Markets |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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4 |
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SP4-21 |
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TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, 25–27 November 2014, Hurdalsjø, Norway |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2211 |
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Author |
Sinabell, F. |
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Title |
Integrated assessment of policy and climate change impacts: A case study on protein crop production in Austria |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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4 |
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SP4-20 |
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TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, 25–27 November 2014, Hurdalsjø, Norway |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2210 |
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