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Author Watson, J.; Challinor, A.J.; Fricker, T.E.; Ferro, C.A.T.
Title Comparing the effects of calibration and climate errors on a statistical crop model and a process-based crop model Type (down) Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Climatic Change Abbreviated Journal Clim. Change
Volume 132 Issue 1 Pages 93-109
Keywords maize; yield; ensemble; impacts; design; heat
Abstract Understanding the relationship between climate and crop productivity is a key component of projections of future food production, and hence assessments of food security. Climate models and crop yield datasets have errors, but the effects of these errors on regional scale crop models is not well categorized and understood. In this study we compare the effect of synthetic errors in temperature and precipitation observations on the hindcast skill of a process-based crop model and a statistical crop model. We find that errors in temperature data have a significantly stronger influence on both models than errors in precipitation. We also identify key differences in the responses of these models to different types of input data error. Statistical and process-based model responses differ depending on whether synthetic errors are overestimates or underestimates. We also investigate the impact of crop yield calibration data on model skill for both models, using datasets of yield at three different spatial scales. Whilst important for both models, the statistical model is more strongly influenced by crop yield scale than the process-based crop model. However, our results question the value of high resolution yield data for improving the skill of crop models; we find a focus on accuracy to be more likely to be valuable. For both crop models, and for all three spatial scales of yield calibration data, we found that model skill is greatest where growing area is above 10-15 %. Thus information on area harvested would appear to be a priority for data collection efforts. These results are important for three reasons. First, understanding how different crop models rely on different characteristics of temperature, precipitation and crop yield data allows us to match the model type to the available data. Second, we can prioritize where improvements in climate and crop yield data should be directed. Third, as better climate and crop yield data becomes available, we can predict how crop model skill should improve.
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Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0165-0009 1573-1480 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4546
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Author Challinor, A.; Martre, P.; Asseng, S.; Thornton, P.; Ewert, F.
Title Making the most of climate impacts ensembles Type (down) Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change
Volume 4 Issue 2 Pages 77-80
Keywords uncertainty; model; adaptation
Abstract Increasing use of regionally and globally oriented impacts studies, coordinated across international modelling groups, promises to bring about a new era in climate impacts research. Coordinated cycles of model improvement and projection are needed to make the most of this potential.
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1758-678x 1758-6798 ISBN Medium Commentary
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4516
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Author Watson, J.; Challinor, A.
Title The relative importance of rainfall, temperature and yield data for a regional-scale crop model Type (down) Journal Article
Year 2013 Publication Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume 170 Issue Pages 47-57
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Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0168-1923 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4930
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Author Yang, H.; Dobbie, S.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Feng, K.; Challinor, A.J.; Chen, B.; Gao, Y.; Lee, L.; Yin, Y.; Sun, L.; Watson, J.; Koehler, A.-K.; Fan, T.; Ghosh, S.
Title Potential negative consequences of geoengineering on crop production: A study of Indian groundnut Type (down) Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Geophysical Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Geophys. Res. Let.
Volume 43 Issue 22 Pages 11786-11795
Keywords Mangrove Tidal Creek; Land-Ocean Boundary; Carbon-Dioxide; Organic-Matter; River Estuary; European Estuaries; CO2 Fluxes; NE Coast; Water; Bay; fCO(2) (water); air-water CO2 flux; Hugli Estuary; Matla Estuary; Blue Carbon; source of CO2
Abstract Geoengineering has been proposed to stabilize global temperature, but its impacts on crop production and stability are not fully understood. A few case studies suggest that certain crops are likely to benefit from solar dimming geoengineering, yet we show that geoengineering is projected to have detrimental effects for groundnut. Using an ensemble of crop-climate model simulations, we illustrate that groundnut yields in India undergo a statistically significant decrease of up to 20% as a result of solar dimming geoengineering relative to RCP4.5. It is somewhat reassuring, however, to find that after a sustained period of 50 years of geoengineering crop yields return to the nongeoengineered values within a few years once the intervention is ceased.
Address 2017-01-20
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0094-8276 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_MACSUR Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4936
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Author Liu, B.; Asseng, S.; Müller, C.; Ewert, F.; Elliott, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Martre, P.; Ruane, A. C.; Wallach, D.; Jones, J. W.; Rosenzweig, C.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Alderman, P. D.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.; Deryng, D.; Sanctis, G. D.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Folberth, C.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Kimball, B. A.; Koehler, A.-K.; Kumar, S. N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G. J.; Olesen, J. E.; Ottman, M. J.; Palosuo, T.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Priesack, E.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Reynolds, M.; Rezaei, E. E.; Rötter, R. P.; Schmid, E.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stehfest, E.; Stöckle, C. O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P.; Waha, K.; Wall, G. W.; Wang, E.; White, J. W.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.
Title Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods Type (down) Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change
Volume 6 Issue 12 Pages 1130-1136
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1758-678x ISBN Medium article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4965
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