| Records |
| Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R. |
Title  |
Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
| Volume |
61 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
502-510 |
| Keywords |
climate changes; decision-making tools; estimation of parameters; forecasted outputs; gamma distribution; predicting yields; climate-change; emissions scenarios; impacts; potato; yield; growth; policy; scale; water |
| Abstract |
Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of our research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, we analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate parameters of the distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed using a method of maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of stored raw food materials and import/export policies. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
0139-570x |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4644 |
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| Author |
Schönhart et al. |
| Title |
Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Farms and Ecosystems in a Grassland Dominated Austrian Landscape |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
8 |
Issue |
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Pages |
SP8-16 |
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Conference presentation PDF |
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Conference |
LiveM2016: International livestock modelling conference – Modelling grassland-livestock systems under climate change |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4844 |
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| Author |
Menardo et al. |
| Title |
INNO Mil-CH4 GHG Emissions from Milk Production |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
8 |
Issue |
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Pages |
SP8-4 |
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LiveM2016: International livestock modelling conference – Modelling grassland-livestock systems under climate change |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4845 |
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| Author |
Heinschink et al. |
| Title |
Index-based costs of livestock production (INCAP.l) in Austria – the suckler cow and beef calf production activity |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
8 |
Issue |
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Pages |
SP8-1 |
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LiveM2016: International livestock modelling conference – Modelling grassland-livestock systems under climate change |
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Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4846 |
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| Author |
Kuhnert, M.; Yeluripati, J.; Smith, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Constantin, J.; Coucheney, E.; Dechow, R.; Eckersten, H.; Gaiser, T.; Grosz, B.; Haas, E.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Kiese, R.; Klatt, S.; Lewan, E.; Nendel, C.; Raynal, H.; Sosa, C.; Specka, X.; Teixeira, E.; Wang, E.; Weihermüller, L.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, Z.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
Impacts of soil and weather data aggregation in spatial modelling of net primary production of croplands |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
CropM; |
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Place of Publication |
Belrin (Germany) |
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International Crop Modelling Symposium iCropM 2016, 2016-03-15 to 2016-03-17, Belrin |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2579 |
| Permanent link to this record |
