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Author Hoveid, Ø. url  openurl
  Title (down) Prototype of stochastic equilibrium model of the food system Type Report
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages D-T2.5  
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  Abstract Food security is an issue of risk. If climate change is not responded to with diet, technology and/or policy changes, it may lead to reduced food security for the world population, in particular the poorer part which in longer periods may not afford to purchase food in sufficient quantity and quality. In order to improve the situation, certain policy changes may be required.  In some cases are policy recommendations relatively obvious, while in other cases a deeper insight in the stochastic dynamics of food supply and storage is required to assess the consequences of policy proposals. The relatively obvious part is that farmers need be responsive in periods of low total production, so that sufficient supply restores quickly. Moreover, trade should allow local shortages to be covered. Many national policies with the goal of self-sufficiency aim in the opposite direction with stable prices and production and relatively less flexibility in production. The stochastic dynamics of food supply can be analysed in more detail with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE). Although agriculture by nature is about taking decisions under uncertainty, quantitative stochastic dynamic models for policy analysis in agriculture have not yet emerged. The contribution in MACSUR is a formalization of a class of DSGE-s based on representation of biological processes managed with regard to outcomes due to uncertain nature. No Label  
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  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2115  
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Author Van Middelkoop, J. url  openurl
  Title (down) Promoting climate mitigation on agricultural and forest land through the CAP Type Conference Article
  Year 2015 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords LiveM  
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  Area Expedition Conference Workshop European Commission Brussels, 2015-03-06 to 2015-03-06  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2872  
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Author Powell, J. url  openurl
  Title (down) Productivity Implications of Extreme Precipitation Events: the case of Dutch Wheat Farmers Type
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 5 Issue Pages Sp5-48  
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  Abstract The paper applies a stochastic production frontier model to measure factor productivity and assess the impact of large variations in precipitation on production and the technical efficiency of farms that grow wheat in the Netherlands.  A crop level analysis is conducted using an unbalanced panel of 322 farms in 129 regions that grew wheat for at least two years in the period 2002-2013.  In general, higher rates of precipitation were found to reduce wheat production. However, those effects were found to be dependent on the type of soil and the month in which the precipitation was realized.  Heavy precipitation in December and August were found to decrease efficiency, while increasing efficiency in April.  Results show the importance of controlling for local conditions and interaction effects between variables when assessing the implications of extreme weather events. No Label  
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  Area Expedition Conference MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2163  
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Author Halford, N.G.; Foyer, C.H. url  doi
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  Title (down) Producing a road map that enables plants to cope with future climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Journal of Experimental Botany Abbreviated Journal J. Experim. Bot.  
  Volume 66 Issue 12 Pages 3433-3434  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0022-0957 ISBN Medium Editorial Material  
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  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4704  
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Author Mansouri, M.; Destain, M.-F. url  doi
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  Title (down) Predicting biomass and grain protein content using Bayesian methods Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Abbreviated Journal Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess.  
  Volume 29 Issue 4 Pages 1167-1177  
  Keywords crop model; particle filter; prediction; ensemble kalman filter; parameter-estimation; particle filters; decision-support; state estimation; model; nitrogen; navigation; tracking; systems  
  Abstract This paper deals with the problem of predicting biomass and grain protein content using improved particle filtering (IPF) based on minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The performances of IPF are compared with those of the conventional particle filtering (PF) in two comparative studies. In the first one, we apply IPF and PF at a simple dynamic crop model with the aim to predict a single state variable, namely the winter wheat biomass, and to estimate several model parameters. In the second study, the proposed IPF and the PF are applied to a complex crop model (AZODYN) to predict a winter-wheat quality criterion, namely the grain protein content. The results of both comparative studies reveal that the IPF method provides a better estimation accuracy than the PF method. The benefit of the IPF method lies in its ability to provide accuracy related advantages over the PF method since, unlike the PF which depends on the choice of the sampling distribution used to estimate the posterior distribution, the IPF yields an optimum choice of this sampling distribution, which also utilizes the observed data. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated in terms of estimation accuracy, root mean square error, mean absolute error and execution times.  
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  ISSN 1436-3240 1436-3259 ISBN Medium Article  
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  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4664  
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