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Castañeda-Vera, A.; Leffelaar, P.A.; Álvaro-Fuentes, J.; Cantero-Martínez, C.; Mínguez, M.I. |
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Title  |
Selecting crop models for decision making in wheat insurance |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
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68 |
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97-116 |
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aquacrop; ceres-wheat; cropsyst; wofost; model choice; rainfed semi-arid areas; radiation use efficiency; water deficit; use efficiency; management-practices; farming systems; field-capacity; soil; yield; evaporation; photosynthesis; transpiration; irrigation |
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In crop insurance, the accuracy with which the insurer quantifies the actual risk is highly dependent on the availability on actual yield data. Crop models might be valuable tools to generate data on expected yields for risk assessment when no historical records are available. However, selecting a crop model for a specific objective, location and implementation scale is a difficult task. A look inside the different crop and soil modules to understand how outputs are obtained might facilitate model choice. The objectives of this paper were (i) to assess the usefulness of crop models to be used within a crop insurance analysis and design and (ii) to select the most suitable crop model for drought risk assessment in semi-arid regions in Spain. For that purpose first, a pre-selection of crop models simulating wheat yield under rainfed growing conditions at the field scale was made, and second, four selected models (Aquacrop, CERES-Wheat, CropSyst and WOFOST) were compared in terms of modelling approaches, process descriptions and model outputs. Outputs of the four models for the simulation of winter wheat growth are comparable when water is not limiting, but differences are larger when simulating yields under rainfed conditions. These differences in rainfed yields are mainly related to the dissimilar simulated soil water availability and the assumed linkages with dry matter formation. We concluded that for the simulation of winter wheat growth at field scale in such semi-arid conditions, CERES-Wheat and CropSyst are preferred. WOFOST is a satisfactory compromise between data availability and complexity when detail data on soil is limited. Aquacrop integrates physiological processes in some representative parameters, thus diminishing the number of input parameters, what is seen as an advantage when observed data is scarce. However, the high sensitivity of this model to low water availability limits its use in the region considered. Contrary to the use of ensembles of crop models, we endorse that efforts be concentrated on selecting or rebuilding a model that includes approaches that better describe the agronomic conditions of the regions in which they will be applied. The use of such complex methodologies as crop models is associated with numerous sources of uncertainty, although these models are the best tools available to get insight in these complex agronomic systems. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4710 |
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Lehtonen, H. |
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Title |
Sector level agricultural development following different adaptations to climate change |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-36 |
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Future crop yields in northern Europe are subject to many factors and uncertainties, according to recent agro-ecological studies. Based on our farm level analysis, we concluded that prices of agricultural products are the primary drivers in the adaptation to climate change. They, as well as the policy conditions, affect the level of fertilization and the use of other inputs, land use and the intensity and the volume of agricultural production. We outlined 5 main scenarios of agricultural adaptation in Finland, and used an agricultural sector model to assess the impacts of the 5 scenarios on total production and land use in the whole country and in its four main regions. In the scenarios with unchanged product prices in the real terms, we find that a small increase or decrease in crop yields is possible. Significantly higher yields would require also 20-30% higher prices of crop products. Our sector modeling results suggest that avoiding decreases in crop yields is important for agricultural income in the long-term, even if livestock production in also maintained by national subsidies. Decreasing yields will result in increasing nutrient surplus and most likely in increased nutrient leaching, while increasing crop yields, even slightly, would significantly decrease nutrient surplus and increase farm income. Significant increases in crop yields and prices, however, are required before production clearly increases in Finland. Interestingly, cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, in the case of high future prices. This is explained by the abundant land resources, as well as the high opportunity cost of labor and policy systems maintaining current livestock production. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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2151 |
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Lacetera, N. |
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Season and temperature humidity index related changes of productive and health parameters in dairy cows and pigs |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-33 |
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The work described herein was based on construction and query of four different large databases which included multiannual (5-7 years) meteorological, productive and health data from the field. Productive data were referred to dairy cows and included milk yield and composition (total bacterial count, fat and protein percentages) whereas health data were relative both to dairy cows (milk somatic cell counts and mortality data) and pigs (mortality data during transport and at lairage). The analysis pointed out significant seasonal variations of parameters under study. In synthesis, summer/hot season was associated with significant worsening of cows’ milk composition and with significant higher risk of death in pigs. The analysis also permitted to establish the themperature humidity index values above which a significant decline of performance and health of dairy cows or pigs has to expected. These results may help to predict the consequences of climate change in economically important sectors of the livestock industry, to identify and target adaptation options that are appropriate for specific contexts and that can contribute to environmental sustainability as well as to economic development. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2148 |
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Lotze-Campen, H.; von Witzke, H.; Noleppa, S.; Schwarz, G. |
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Science for food, climate protection and welfare: An economic analysis of plant breeding research in Germany |
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2015 |
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Agricultural Systems |
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Agric. Syst. |
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136 |
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79-84 |
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Plant breeding; CO2 emissions; Cost–benefit analysis; Social rate of return; Agricultural research policy |
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Highlights • We analyze the economic effects of plant breeding research in Germany. • Effects of reduced CO2 emissions due to productivity increases are being quantified. • Expansion of global agricultural area has been reduced by 1–1.5 million ha. • CO2 emissions have been reduced by 160–235 million tons. • German plant breeding research has an economic value of 10.8–15.6 billion EUR. Abstract We analyze the economic effects of plant breeding research in Germany. In addition to market effects, for the first time also effects of reduced CO2 emissions due to productivity increases are being quantified. The analysis shows that investments in German plant breeding research in the period 1991–2010 have reduced the global expansion of agricultural area by 1–1.5 million hectares. This has led to reduced CO2 emissions of 160–235 million tons. The economic value generated by plant breeding research, through increased production and reduced greenhouse gas emissions, is estimated at 10.8–15.6 billion EUR in the same period. This can be translated into a social rate of return on research investment in the range of 40–80% per year. Projections for the period 2011–2030 generate a return rate in the range of 65–140% per year. Investments into plant breeding research in Germany are highly profitable from a societal point of view. At the same time, our results show significant under-investments in agricultural research in Germany. These results provide a good justification for policy-makers to reverse funding cuts for public agricultural research over the last decades and to improve institutional conditions for private research, e.g. through better protection of intellectual property rights. |
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0308521x |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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4999 |
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Zander, P. |
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Scenarios of regional agricultural land use under climate change for 4 case study regions in Northern Germany |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-73 |
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Agricultural land use in Northern Germany is characterized by a gradient of decreasing precipitation from west to east. Climate change is expected to increase temperature and decrease summer precipitation. In the context of a nationally funded project we aim to analyze climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural land use. The research is focused in 4 study regions from Eastern to Western Germany. The presented modelling approach analyses agricultural land use under climate change and for three policy scenarios (business as usual, biodiversity and climate protection). The biodiversity and climate protection scenarios each reserve area for specific scenario objectives: 10% for specific biodiversity measures and 20% for N-fixing legumes in case of the climate protection scenario. All scenarios are executed for three time steps representing year 2010, 2020 and 2030 with a constant yield increase, extrapolated from past observations. Building on IACS data for a farm typology and expert assessments of current and future land use options, we applied a linear programming farm model. Prices are exogenous and derived from CAPRI model runs for 2020 and 2030. First preliminary results show strong impacts of price assumptions and yield assessments. This results in 2020 in lower gross margins for a number of crops and finally to higher set aside areas in eastern Germany. For 2030 input–output price relations are more favourable for farmers and thus lead to lower set aside areas. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2188 |
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