Abstract: The workshop was called to define an overarching question to be answered by all Regional  Pilot Studies and to select from the existing studies those that fit best to the aims of  MACSUR. The question that evolved from the discussions is “What would be the different  contributions of different European adaptation strategies to ensure global food security  until 2050 at different scales (farm to EU) while keeping the GHG targets?” Workshop  participants agreed to use the newest climate simulations related to Representative  Concentration Pathways that were also used by the AgMIP and ISI-MIP projects. There was  also agreement to use a subset of the AgMIP scenarios (S2-S6) for impact assessments, with  AgMIP scenario S1 as the reference scenario, for details see Table 3 below. The selection  of Regional Pilot Studies was discussed separately for European Grand Regions, but there  was no concluding decision taken. The Project Steering Committee will finally decide on  showcase studies at a meeting in the first week of July based on characterisations sent in  by interested members. Questionnaires for characterising the Regional Pilot Studies will be  sent by the Hub to the regional contact persons mentioned in Table 2 to fill in. The  characterization list can be extended. The questionnaires should be filled in by the end of  June. Stakeholder meetings are planned for October 2013 in each region where  preliminary/sample outputs of the regional pilot studies should be presented. Results will  be presented at the mid-term meeting in April 2014. The last year of MACSUR is then  available to improve the studies.The geographic extent of the Regional Pilot Studies is  approximately county level – representing the area of the studies they are based on. The  Regional Pilot Studies will be linked within the grand regions (northern, central, southern  Europe) by consistent regional and continental Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAP).  These regional RAPs will feed into the RAP process underway at AgMIP. Through the  common RAPs the Regional Pilot Studies will reflect the common challenges of the greater  region and by having several Regional Pilot Studies the diversity of the environment,  farming systems, and political systems is represented. The workshop was a first step into  further planning and performing the Regional Pilot Studies that will fine-tune the results of  the workshop. No Label

Abstract: In a cross country analysis using national data for both OECD and developing countries, we estimate a regression model with different coefficients for different drivers for per capita meat consumption. The model contains data from approximately 125 countries (depending on the variables included) on meat consumption and production, relative size of agricultural area and pasture and meadows, PPP adjusted consumer prices for meat (and for food as control variable), PPP adjusted GNI per capita, HDI, degree of urbanisation, religion and geographical/cultural belonging.A regression analysis has been conducted, using OLS with data from 2011 and an aggregation of all meat types as the dependent variable. In the results all of the mentioned variables have a significant impact on meat consumption.Based on a first scenario analysis which has been presented on a TradeM Workshop of MACSUR in September 2014, this paper will extend the approach of an estimated cross-country analysis to improve the demand elasticities in the MAGNET model for meat and meat products. Further other demand determining factors of meat consumption, e.g. behavioural change towards less meat consumption (vegetarian or vegan) derived from the regression analysis will be fed into the MAGNET model. This extended approach will help to analyse the resulting market effects of a changing demand pattern for meat.  MAGNET will provide insights in consequences on supply and international trade for meat and meat products.The aim of this combined approach is to further explore the relationship between production and consumption, and to what extent the one is driving the other. Based on the application of the panel data method for a detailed demand analysis with the combination of the feedback from the supply and trade side based on the MAGNET model we will be able to provide a tool which is able to address the important questions of demand responses under different adaptation or mitigation strategies towards clime change, such as tax measures like fat taxes. This extended tool also contributes to an improved decision making process of policy makers under different options to respond to climate change issues – not only with regard to the supply side of agricultural production but also to the consumption side. No Label