Dono, G. (2013). Storylines regarding climate change and scenarios (Vol. 1).
Abstract: WP3 develops the tools for assessing the productive and economic impact of climate change and the potential of mitigation and adaptation strategies. This is achieved by focussing, along with CropM and LiveM, on significant crossing issues in specific geographical areas, natural and human resources, and farming systems. Following, the storylines regarding climate change and scenarios in the hot-spots. No Label
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Wallach, D., & Rivington, M. (2015). Standardised methods and protocols based on current best practices to conduct sensitivity analysis (Vol. 6).
Abstract: The purpose of this report is to propose a general procedure for sensitivity analysis when used to evaluate system sensitivity to climate change, including uncertainty information. While sensitivity analysis has been largely used to evaluate how uncertainties in inputs or parameters propagate through the model and manifest themselves in uncertainties in model outputs, there is much less experience with sensitivity analysis as a tool for studying how sensitive a system is to changes in inputs. This report should help make clear the differences between these two uses of sensitivity analysis, and provide guidance as to the procedure for using sensitivity analysis for evaluating system sensitivity to climate change. No Label
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Kipling, R., & Özkan, Ş. (2016). Stakeholder engagement and the perceptions of researchers: How agricultural modellers view challenges to communication (Vol. 8).
Abstract: Conference presentation PDF
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Lehtonen, H. S., Kässi, P., Korhonen, P., Niskanen, O., Rötter, R., Palosuo, T., et al. (2014). Specific problems and solutions in climate change adaptation in North Savo region (Vol. 3).
Abstract: Crop production for feed dominates land use in North Savo in eastern Finland. The value of dairy and beef production is appr. 70 % of the total value of agricultural production of the region. In climate change adaptation research we are especially interested in dairy and meat sectors, which are directly dependent on the development of productivity of crop production. Climate change implies changes in cereals and forage crop yields and nutritive quality. There are most likely increasing problems and risks related to overwintering and growing periods. Grass silage is mainly self-produced on farms and most often there is no market for silage. Silage production and use are vulnerable to changes in local climate, because lost yield cannot be easily replaced from market. Risks and costs due to increasing inter-annual yield volatility can be reduced by good management practices, such as crop rotation, plant protection, soil improvements and better crop protection against plant diseases.However the profitability of such measures is dependent on market and policy conditions. Nevertheless new cultivars and species, as well as various options for production and risk management, are most likely needed in future climate. Some adaptations may have multiple benefits which however may realize only in medium or long run. It is important to safeguard the most important and obviously needed adaptations, and identify market and socio-economic conditions which inhibit farmers from necessary adaptations and lead to reduced productivity and increased production costs. No Label
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Ruiz-Ramos, M. (2015). Simulating wheat adaptation to climate change in Europe using an ensemble approach with impact response surfaces (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Adaptation can reduce climate change risks to crop production and is best analyzed at local scales considering regional specificities. Uncertainty inherent in modelling adaptation options is due to climate projections, downscaling and imperfections of crop models. The challenge of making effective adaptation decisions requires powerful approaches for exploiting the potential of genotype by environment by management interactions, and for generating projections informed with uncertainty.Here we present a methodology that constructs impact response surfaces (IRSs) from an ensemble of crop models and applies these to explore the adaptation potential of rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain) in a water-limited environment. The simulation experiment includes: 1) a systematic sensitivity analysis to changes to baseline temperature and precipitation (1981-2010) through a delta change approach that accounts for seasonal differences, 2) three levels of CO2 representing present-day and future conditions until 2050 (A1B scenario), and 3) soil profiles representative for the variable conditions around Lleida. The adaptation simulations represent adjusted management practices about sowing, supplementary irrigation, and the thermal and vernalisation requirements of cultivars used.A pre-selection of the adaptation options was done iteratively, in ranges supported by literature review of crop adaptation in the Mediterranean (e.g. shifts from current sowing date between -30 and +45 days). This procedure allowed to identify a limited number of effective and feasible adaptations to be evaluated combining IRSs and probabilistic projections of climate change. No Label
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