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Rötter, R. P., Höhn, J. G., & Fronzek, S. (2012). Projections of climate change impacts on crop production: A global and a Nordic perspective. Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science, 62(4), 166–180.
Abstract: Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections.
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Rötter, P., Höhn, J., & Fronzek, S. (2012). Projections of climate change impacts on crop production – a global and a Nordic perspective..
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Rötter, R. P., Höhn, J. G., & Fronzek, S. (2012). Projections of climate change impacts on crop production – a global and a Nordic perspective. Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science, 62, 166–180.
Abstract: Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections.
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Müller, C., & Robertson, R. D. (2014). Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling. Agric. Econ., 45(1), 37–50.
Abstract: Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10-38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change.
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Gallo, A., Mereu, V., & Spano, D. (2014). Projected climate change impact on wheat and maize in Italy. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Agriculture is one of the most important sectors for global economy. Its high vulnerability to climate conditions cause a serious concern for the consequence determined by the incoming climate changes. The increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall, projected for the next decades in the Mediterranean Basin, may cause a significant impact on crop development and production. In this contest, the assessment of the climate change impacts on crop growth and yield is necessary in order to identify the crops and areas more vulnerable and suggest adaptation strategies to cope with climate change. The use of crop simulation models, such as those implemented in DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer – Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5., is the most common approach for the assessment of climate change impacts on crop development and yields. These models are often used at field scale. However, recent studies have been carried out at both regional and continental scale. In this work, CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models, parameterized at Italian scale for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize, were applied to assess climate change impacts on crop phenology and productivity. Dynamically downscaled climate data, using by the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM, and RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for impact assessment. Moreover, some adaptation strategies were evaluated. Results, analyzed at regional level, will be discussed.
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