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Cortignani, R. |
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Common Agricultural Policy and climate variability changes: an impact assessment of the first-pillar reform on an agricultural area of Grana Padano in different climate scenarios |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-12 |
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The reform of the Common Agricultural Policy it started in 2015 with several innovative aspects. Regarding the first pillar, such aspects are especially the convergence of the basic payments, the green payments and the coupled payments. In this regard seems interesting carry out analysis about to evaluate the policy impact considering the risks and opportunities due to climate change.In this study the impact of the convergence of basic payments, the introduction of the green payments and the coupled payments has been evaluated on dairy cattle farms in the Grana Padano area. The impact has been evaluated in different climate scenarios by economic, social and environmental indicators. The methodology used is the mathematical programming and especially a model of Discrete Stochastic Programming has been used to represents farms of the FADN database.The main results show that a significant part of the farms is affected by the diversification constraint that reduces the land devoted to corn silage. Farmers could cultivate corn silage after a principal crop (e.g. ryegrass) in order to avoid the diversification constraint, however, determining a negative impact on the use of environmental resources. To consider also that in the future there is an increase of corn silage yields with long cycle.Another result to underline is that which concerns the possibility of soybean cultivation in the ecological focus areas. In fact, considering the coupled payment provided for this crop, the ecological focus areas seem to be an important source of income for the farms.Finally, the analysis shows that the convergence of the basic payment will result in a reallocation of direct payments between farms with a significant impact on farm incomes. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2127 |
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Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Kros, J.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Britz, W.; Reinds, G.J.; Ewert, F.; de Vries, W. |
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Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe |
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2015 |
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Agricultural Systems |
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Agricultural Systems |
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140 |
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56-73 |
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agriculture; capri; climate change; environmental impact; farming system; fssim; integrated assessment; integrator; model linkage; n emission; price change; scenarios; simplace; technological change; crop simulation-models; agricultural land-use; integrated assessment; growth; strategies; nitrogen; soils; environment; scenarios; emissions |
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In this study, we compare the relative importance of climate change to technological, management, price and policy changes on European arable farming systems. This required linking four models: the SIMPLACE crop growth modelling framework to calculate future yields under climate change for arable crops; the CAPRI model to estimate impacts on global agricultural markets, specifically product prices; the bio-economic farm model FSSIM to calculate the future changes in cropping patterns and farm net income at the farm and regional level; and the environmental model INTEGRATOR to calculate nitrogen (N) uptake and losses to air and water. First, the four linked models were applied to analyse the effect of climate change only or a most likely baseline (i.e. B1) scenario for 2050 as well as for two alternative scenarios with, respectively, strong (i.e. A1-b1) and weak economic growth (B2) for five regions/countries across Europe (i.e. Denmark, Flevoland, Midi Pyrenees, Zachodniopomorsld and Andalucia). These analyses Were repeated but assuming in addition to climate change impacts, also the effects of changes in technology and management on crop yields, the effects of changes in prices and policies in 2050, and the effects of all factors together. The outcomes show that the effects of climate change to 2050 result in higher farm net incomes in the Northern and Northern-Central EU regions, in practically unchanged farm net incomes in the Central and Central-Southern EU regions, and in much lower farm net incomes in Southern EU regions compared to those in the base year. Climate change in combination with improved technology and farm management and/or with price changes towards 2050 results in a higher to much higher farm net incomes. Increases in farm net income for the B1 and A1-b1 scenarios are moderately stronger than those for the B2 scenario, due to the smaller increases in product prices and/or yields for the B2 scenario. Farm labour demand slightly to moderately increases towards 2050 as related to changes in cropping patterns. Changes in N2O emissions and N leaching compared to the base year are mainly caused by changes in total N inputs from the applied fertilizers and animal manure, which in turn are influenced by changes in crop yields and cropping patterns, whereas NH3 emissions are mainly determined by assumed improvements in manure application techniques. N emissions and N leaching strongly increase in Denmark and Zachodniopomorski, slightly decrease to moderately increase in Flevoland and Midi-Pyrenees, and strongly decrease in Andalucia, except for NH3 emissions which zero to moderately decrease in Flevoland and Denmark. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved. |
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2015-10-12 |
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0308-521x |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4703 |
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Dumont, B.; Basso, B.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
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Climatic risk assessment to improve nitrogen fertilisation recommendations: A strategic crop model-based approach |
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2015 |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
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65 |
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10-17 |
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climatic variability; stochastically generated weather; lars-wg; crop model; stics; nitrogen management; yield skewness; wheat yield; generic model; stics; management; variability; simulation; field; balances; impact |
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Within the context of nitrogen (N) management, since 1950, with the rapid intensification of agriculture, farmers have often applied much larger fertiliser quantities than what was required to reach the yield potential. However, to prevent pollution of surface and groundwater induced by nitrates, The European Community launched The European Nitrates Directive 91/6/76/EEC. In 2002, in Wallonia (Belgium), the Nitrates Directive has been transposed under the Sustainable Nitrogen Management in Agriculture Program (PGDA), with the aim of maintaining productivity and revenue for the country’s farmers, while reducing the environmental impact of excessive N application. A feasible approach for addressing climatic uncertainty lies in the use of crop models such as the one commonly known as STICS (simulateur multidisciplinaire pour les cultures standard). These models allow the impact on crops of the interaction between cropping systems and climatic records to be assessed. Comprehensive historical climatic records are rare, however, and therefore the yield distribution values obtained using such an approach can be discontinuous. In order to obtain better and more detailed yield distribution information, the use of a high number of stochastically generated climate time series was proposed, relying on the LARS-Weather Generator. The study focused on the interactions between varying N practices and climatic conditions. Historically and currently, Belgian farmers apply 180 kg N ha(-1), split into three equal fractions applied at the tillering, stem elongation and flag-leaf stages. This study analysed the effectiveness of this treatment in detail, comparing it to similar practices where only the N rates applied at the flag-leaf stage were modified. Three types of farmer decision-making were analysed. The first related to the choice of N strategy for maximising yield, the second to obtaining the highest net revenue, and the third to reduce the environmental impact of potential N leaching, which carries the likelihood of taxation if inappropriate N rates are applied. The results showed reduced discontinuity in the yield distribution values thus obtained. In general, the modulation of N levels to accord with current farmer practices showed considerable asymmetry. In other words, these practices maximised the probability of achieving yields that were at least superior to the mean of the distribution values, thus reducing risk for the farmers. The practice based on applying the highest amounts (60-60-100 kg N ha(-1)) produced the best yield distribution results. When simple economical criteria were computed, the 60-60-80 kg N ha(-1) protocol was found to be optimal for 80-90% of the time. There were no statistical differences, however, between this practice and Belgian farmers’ current practice. When the taxation linked to a high level of potentially leachable N remaining in the soil after harvest was considered, this methodology clearly showed that, in 3 years out of 4,30 kg N ha(-1) could systematically be saved in comparison with the usual practice. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4646 |
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Palatnik, R.R. |
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Climate-dependent yields |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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D-T2.1 |
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In this report we summarize the contributions made by four groups to the subject of climate dependent yields. The first is by Waldemar Bojar, Leszek Knopik, Jacek Zarski, Cezary Slawinski, Piotr Baranowski and Wojciech Zarski on the subject of “the impact of extreme climate changes on the forecasted agriculture production”. It presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie (K&P) and Lubelskie regions, based on statistical databases and the literature review. In this study, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences and Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecasted agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the found dependencies’ yields – precipitation and the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices, areas of farmland and yields. The second contribution is by Bojar W., Knopik L. and Zarski J. on the subject of “integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability to use in food supply forecasting”. It examines the proposals to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods without rain. This model is based on a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. The third contribution is by Iddo Kan on the Vegetative Agricultural Land Use Economic (VALUE) model. It discusses the sub-task with respect to crops of statistically estimating with statistical methods predictions of expected crop-yield contingent on climate, soil and production cost for use in existing trade models, or refined versions thereof, and how VALUE can contribute to this sub-task. The fourth contribution was made by Christoph Muller and Richard D. Robertson on the subject of “projecting future crop productivity for global economic modelling”. It supplies a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. No Label |
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2114 |
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Köchy, M. |
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Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A workshop for decisionmakers. Workshop Programme |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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Sp6-0 |
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Local agricultural production is strongly affected by the weather. Climate change is likely to cause increases in extreme weather events, as well as underlying changes in average conditions. If agriculture is to be sustainable and profitable, farmers will need to adapt to these changes. What impacts could climate change have on farming systems across Europe, and how important are they likely to be compared to the impacts of policies?In order to better answer these questions, the FACCE JPI knowledge hub MACSUR, comprising more than 300 researchers in 18 countries, is assessing the current state of the art in the modelling of agricultural systems for food security.At this workshop we invited policymakers and other stakeholders to learn about regional impacts of climate change on European agriculture relative to policies and to inform researchers about the consultation needs of stakeholders. No Label |
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2081 |
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