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Author |
Nieróbca, A. |
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The regional trends in maize yield in Poland and its prediction according regional GLOBIOM –CAPRI baseline analysis for 2010, 2030 and 2050 |
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Year |
2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Pages |
Sp5-40 |
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The increase of maize production in Polish agriculture is considered as one of the indicators showing temporal climate change impact. The sowing area of grain maize in Poland increased from 152 thousand hectares in 2000 to 614 thousand hectares in 2013. In the same time, the area of maize production for forage in Poland has increased from 162 to 462 thousand hectares. There is observed increase of yield level but the regional differentiation of this trend is also visible. In the paper we discuss the temporal regional trends in maize yield in Poland connected to the limitation factors (soil, climate, fertilisation) and prognosis for further climate change impact using GLOBIOM-CAPRI regional simulations. The data for the analysis of regional trends for maize production level in 16th regions in Poland (NUTS2) were taken from National Statistical Offices Reports. The GLOBIOM-CAPRI regional simulations for baseline analysis 2010, 2030 and 2050 were obtained from MASCUR knowledge-hab evaluation exercises. As a limitation factors for of maize yield we considered the index for suitable soil and climate suitability index for climate developed in Poland and fertilisation. We have identified that observed positive trend in yield level at NUTS2 is correlated with the climate suitability index and level of NPK fertilisation, whilst there is no statistical relations with soil quality index. The GLOBIOM –CAPRI regional simulation for 2030 shows that the maize yield in Poland will further increase and it can be explained by realisation of existing trends. In simulations for the baseline 2050 year there is visible negative trend in yield level in some regions, where even in current climate there is high probability of deficit precipitation (eg. Wielkopolskia region). No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2155 |
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Llonch, P.; Lawrence, A.B.; Haskell, M.J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.; Turner, S.P. |
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Title |
The need for a quantitative assessment of animal welfare trade-offs in climate change mitigation scenarios |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
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Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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6 |
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01 |
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9-11 |
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Keywords |
GHG mitigation; animal welfare; sustainable production |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4677 |
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Waterworth, W.M.; Bray, C.M.; West, C.E. |
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Title |
The importance of safeguarding genome integrity in germination and seed longevity |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
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Journal of Experimental Botany |
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J. Experim. Bot. |
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66 |
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12 |
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3549-3558 |
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DNA Damage/genetics; DNA Repair/genetics; *Genome, Plant; Germination/*genetics; Plant Physiological Phenomena/*genetics; Seeds/*genetics; Ageing; DNA repair; double-strand break; germination; longevity; recombination; seed vigour; viability |
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Seeds are important to agriculture and conservation of plant biodiversity. In agriculture, seed germination performance is an important determinant of crop yield, in particular under adverse climatic conditions. Deterioration in seed quality is associated with the accumulation of cellular damage to macromolecules including lipids, protein, and DNA. Mechanisms that mitigate the deleterious cellular damage incurred in the quiescent state and in cycles of desiccation-hydration are crucial for the maintenance of seed viability and germination vigour. In early-imbibing seeds, damage to the embryo genome must be repaired prior to initiation of cell division to minimize growth inhibition and mutation of genetic information. Here we review recent advances that have established molecular links between genome integrity and seed quality. These studies identified that maintenance of genome integrity is particularly important to the seed stage of the plant lifecycle, revealing new insight into the physiological roles of plant DNA repair and recombination mechanisms. The high conservation of DNA repair and recombination factors across plant species underlines their potential as promising targets for the improvement of crop performance and development of molecular markers for prediction of seed vigour. |
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0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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Review |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4579 |
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Author |
Mittenzwei, K. |
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Title |
The importance of climate and policy uncertainty in Norwegian agriculture |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-39 |
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The paper addresses future climate and policy uncertainty for agricultural production and food security in Norway. The two crop simulation models, CSM-CERES-Wheat and, the LINGRA model, were used to determine the impact of climate change on grain yield of spring wheat, and harvest security and biomass yield of timothy, an important forage grass in Northern Europe, respectively. Harvestable yield distributions from the crop models were fed into a stochastic version of the economic sector model Jordmod. Distributions of the rates of agricultural subsidies rates were assessed based on past policy changes and prospective reforms. The model was used to assess the effects of both climate and policy uncertainty on agricultural production, land use, and national food security. Jordmod is comprised of a supply module in which stochastic profits for more than 300 regional farms are maximized and a deterministic market module which maximizes social welfare in the agricultural sector. Socio-economic scenarios were developed around the level of ambition of Norwegian agricultural policy makers. The model results were contrasted with the deterministic results based on average yield and payment rates. The innovation of this paper lays in assessing the combined effects of future climate and policy uncertainty for the agricultural sector in Norway. It also highlights the potential errors made by neglecting these types of uncertainty in economic modelling. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2154 |
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Zhao, G.; Webber, H.; Hoffmann, H.; Wolf, J.; Siebert, S.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European-wide study |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
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21 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
4031-4048 |
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CO2 effects; Lintul; Simplace; climate change; crop model; irrigation; water availability; yield change |
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This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO2 effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982-2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040-2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process-based crop model, SIMPLACE <LINTUL5, DRUNIR, HEAT>. We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr(-1)). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO2 effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO2 effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area. |
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1354-1013 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4716 |
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