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Dono, G. (2015). Climate change impact on production and income of Mediterranean farming systems: a case study (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Adaptation to climate change calls for local responses. The impact of a 2020-30 climate scenario was assessed on a 54,000 ha Mediterranean district characterized by a variety of farming systems (FS), ranging from low-input rainfed (42% of the district area and 16% of the district net income) to high-input irrigated. Climate was generated with a Regional Atmospheric Modelling System nested into a full coupled atmosphere-ocean global simulation model, under the A1B emission scenario. Crop responses to climate were assessed using EPIC after calibration. The Temperature Humidity Index was used to assess the impact on dairy cow milk yield. Farmer choices were simulated on 13 representative FS by an hybrid model of supply, territory and farm. The adaptive choices were simulated through Discrete Stochastic Programming, fed by probability distribution functions output of crop and animal models. The expected decrease in spring rainfall (-33%) will affect hay-crop production and the net income (NI) of rainfed livestock farms (-5 to -12%). The increased summer temperature will affect dairy cows NI up to -5.9%. Rice production is expected to increase up to +10%. Overall, the NI of irrigated and rainfed farms will be -2.1% and -5.4% of the current NI respectively, with livestock FS being the most affected and rice and horticultural FS the most resilient. Results will provide an ideal mediating object for engaging policy makers and stakeholders in designing visionary adaptive strategies. No Label
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Ventrella, D. (2015). Climate change impact on green and blue water consumptive use for winter durum wheat and tomato cultivated in Southern Italy (Vol. 5).
Abstract: In this study at regional scale, the model DSSAT was applied in order to simulate the cultivation of winter durum wheat and tomato to estimate the green water and the blue water through a dual-step approach (with and without supplemental irrigation). The model simulation covered a period of 30 years in three scenario including a reference period and two future scenarios based on forecasted global average temperature increase of 2 and 5°C. In this paper GW e BW contribution for evapotranspiration requirement is presented and analyzed on a distributed scale related to Puglia region (Southern Italy) characterized by high evaporative demand of the atmosphere. For winter durum wheat the GW component was predominant compared to BW, covering almost 90% of the ETc of WW. Under Baseline scenario the weight of BW was of 11%, slightly increasing in the future scenarios. After considering the probability the climate change determine an increase of irrigation practice for WW from climatic point of view we carried out an example of analysis in order to verify the economical convenience of supplemental irrigation for WW cultivation. The probability that irrigation has a negative or zero income ranged between 55 and 60% and the climate change did not impact the profitability of irrigation for WW as simulated for the economic and agro-pedoclimatic conditions of Puglia region considered in this study.For tomato, in the baseline and future scenarios affected by global warming, the analysis of ET components showed with strong evidence the importance of irrigation that is confirmed as irreplaceable practice for obtaining sustainable yield from productive and economical point of view.GW and BW, both in the case of wheat and tomato, appeared dependent on the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall during the crop cycle, but also on the hydraulic characteristics of soils corresponding to each calculation unit. No Label
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Reidsma, P., Wolf, J., Kanellopoulos, A., Schaap, B. F., Mandryk, M., Verhagen, J., et al. (2015). Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands (Vol. 6).
Abstract: Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that 1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and 2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world. No Label
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Sinabell, F. (2015). Climate change and policy impacts on protein crop production: a case study on integrated modeling (Vol. 5).
Abstract: This paper addresses protein crop production in Europe. European food and feed industries highly depend on imported protein crops and derived products and climate change is likely to affect domestic protein crop production and thus the import dependency. The recent reform of EU agricultural policy reform aims at promoting climate friendly agricultural practices and stimulating the production of protein crops. We choose three contrasting climate change scenarios as well as specifications of the recent CAP reform in order to investigate how farmers might adapt to changing land use restrictions and climate conditions. Output response, land allocation and nitrogen use are the main variables of interest. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we apply an integrated modeling framework consisting of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. This model maximizes total gross margins by optimizing for land use and crop management practices for different scenarios of climate change and market conditions. Results obtained at a 1 km grid are aggregated to the national level. The model results indicate that changes in policy conditions, cropland use, and flexibility in crop management practices may have stronger effects on total protein crop production than climate change in the next decades. An expansion of current protein crop production leads to an increase in marginal opportunity costs, reduces mineral fertilizer input demand, and mainly replaces maize in the crop rotations. No Label
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Antle, J. M. (2015). Climate Change and Food Security: Improving the Relevance and Credibility of Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (Vol. 4).
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