| Records |
| Author |
Schönhart, M.; Schauppenlehner, T.; Schmid, E. |
Title  |
Integrated land use modelling of climate change impacts – preliminary results from two Austrian case study landscapes |
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| Year |
2014 |
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We present an integrated land use modelling framework (ILM) to analyze impacts of climate change and CAP reform as well as farm adaptation using economic, biotic and abiotic indicators at field, farm and landscape scales. The IML is applied on the two contrasting landscapes in the Austrian MACSUR regional pilot study. The scenarios cover climate and policy changes until 2040. The anticipated policy changes lead to declines in farm gross margins by -36% and -5% in the two landscapes, respectively. In contrast, climate change leads to higher gross margins, where farms can reach pre-reform levels on average. Environmental impacts such as removing of landscape elements and increasing fertilization can be moderated by an agri-environmental program, but the opportunity costs of program participation may increase. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5091 |
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| Author |
Schönhart, M.; Schauppenlehner, T.; Schmid, E. |
| Title |
Integrated Land Use modelling of climate change impacts in two Austrian case study landscapes at field level |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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TradeM |
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14th EAAE Congress, Ljubljana (Slovenia), 2014-08-26 to 2014-08-29 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2813 |
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Mitter, H.; Schönhart, M.; Schmid, E. |
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Integrated climate change impact and adaptation assessment for the agricultural sector in Austria |
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2014 |
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TradeM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2650 |
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Schönhart, M.; Schauppenlehner, T.; Kuttner, M.; Kirchner, M.; Schmid, E. |
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Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Impacts at Field and Farm level in the Austrian Mostviertel Region |
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2014 |
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TradeM |
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TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, Hurdalsjøen, Norway, 2014-11-25 to 2014-11-27 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2812 |
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Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Zarski, J. |
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Integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability for use in food supply forecasting |
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2014 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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3 |
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Sp3-7 |
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Climate change suggests long periods without rainfall will occur in the future quite often. Previous approach on dependence crop-yields from size of rain confirms the existence of a statistically significant relation. We built a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods of drought, using a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed from rainfall data using the method of maximum likelihood. Long series of days or decades of drought allow to determine the probabilities of adverse developments in agriculture as the basis for forecasting crop yields in the future (years 2030, 2050). Forecasted yields can be used for assessment of productivity and profitability of some selected crops in Kujavian-Pomeranian region. Assumptions and parameters of large-scale spatial economic models will be applied to build up relevant solutions. Calculated with this approach output could be useful to expect decrease in agricultural output in the region. It will enable to shape effective agricultural policy to know how to balance food supply and demand through appropriate managing with stored food raw material and/or import/export policies. Used precipitation-yields dependencies method let verify earlier used methodology through comparison of obtained solutions concerning forecasted yields and closed to it uncertainty analysis.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2224 |
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