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Sandars, L., & Audsley, E. (2014). Optimal Land-use Future Scenarios Nordic Area..
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König, H. J. (2014). Operationalising sustainability impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries: A stakeholder-based approach with case studies in China, India, Indonesia, Kenya, and Tunisia. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Growing populations, continued economic development, and limited natural resources are critical factors affecting sustainable development. Ex-ante impact assessment is an emerging field poised at the science-policy interface and is used to assess the potential impacts of policy while also exploring trade-offs between economic, social and environmental sustainability targets. The Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) was selected for this study because it allows for the integration of various sustainability dimensions, the handling of complexity, and the incorporation of local stakeholder perceptions. FoPIA was adapted to the conditions of developing countries, and its implementation was demonstrated in five selected case studies. Based on the findings from the five case studies, FoPIA was found to be suitable for implementing the impact assessment at case study level while ensuring a high level of transparency. FoPIA supports the identification of causal relationships underlying regional land use problems, facilitates communication among stakeholders and illustrates the effects of alternative decision options with respect to all three dimensions of sustainable development.
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Gøtke, N. (2014). Opening remarks by the chair of the FACCE JPI Governing Board. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
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Porter, J. R., & Wratten, S. (2014). National carbon stocks: Move on to a carbon currency standard. Nature, 506, 295.
Abstract: Alongside Robert Costanza and colleagues’ plea to abandon gross domestic product as a measure of national success (see Nature 505, 283–285; 2014), we believe that there is an urgent need to change the way currencies are valued — by using a new ‘carbon standard’ that links economy to ecology. This would work in a similar way to the old gold-exchange standard, except that a country’s currency value would instead be determined by its saved and standing stocks of fossil and non-fossil carbon. Governments would need to decide whether to risk devaluing their currency by depleting carbon stocks — while still honouring a commitment to keep fossil-carbon stocks at 80% as a safeguard against extreme climate change. After the Second World War, huge investments radically altered the economies of the United States, the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom. In the face of climate change, it is now the global energy system that needs reinvention.
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Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T. A., Clark, D. B., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., et al. (2014). Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 111(9), 3233–3238.
Abstract: The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.
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