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Author |
Bojar, W.; Sinabell, F.; Verburg, R. |
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Title  |
Inventarisation of TradeM models |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2012 |
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TradeM |
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Kickoff Meeting and Workshop: Modelling, European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security, 2012-10-15 to 2012-10-16 |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2331 |
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Author |
Bojar, W.; Leszek, K., Jacek Zarski, Wojciech Zarski, Cezary Slawinski, Piotr Baranowski |
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Title |
Integrating TradeM and CropM MACSUR models for regional case studies in Poland |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2013 |
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Keywords |
TradeM |
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MACSUR TradeM Workshop on Global Food Security Challenges – European Research approaches. Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany, 2013-11-18 to 2013-11-20 |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2330 |
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Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R. |
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Title |
Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Economics – Czech |
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Volume |
61 |
Issue |
11 |
Pages |
502-510 |
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Keywords |
climate changes; decision-making tools; estimation of parameters; forecasted outputs; gamma distribution; predicting yields; climate-change; emissions scenarios; impacts; potato; yield; growth; policy; scale; water |
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Abstract |
Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of our research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, we analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate parameters of the distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed using a method of maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of stored raw food materials and import/export policies. |
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English |
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ISSN |
0139-570x |
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Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4644 |
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Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Zarski, J. |
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Title |
Integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability for use in food supply forecasting |
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Report |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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Volume |
3 |
Issue |
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Pages |
Sp3-7 |
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Keywords |
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Abstract |
Climate change suggests long periods without rainfall will occur in the future quite often. Previous approach on dependence crop-yields from size of rain confirms the existence of a statistically significant relation. We built a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods of drought, using a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed from rainfall data using the method of maximum likelihood. Long series of days or decades of drought allow to determine the probabilities of adverse developments in agriculture as the basis for forecasting crop yields in the future (years 2030, 2050). Forecasted yields can be used for assessment of productivity and profitability of some selected crops in Kujavian-Pomeranian region. Assumptions and parameters of large-scale spatial economic models will be applied to build up relevant solutions. Calculated with this approach output could be useful to expect decrease in agricultural output in the region. It will enable to shape effective agricultural policy to know how to balance food supply and demand through appropriate managing with stored food raw material and/or import/export policies. Used precipitation-yields dependencies method let verify earlier used methodology through comparison of obtained solutions concerning forecasted yields and closed to it uncertainty analysis.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2224 |
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Author |
Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J. |
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Title |
Integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability for use in food supply forecasting |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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Keywords |
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Abstract |
Climate change suggests long periods without rainfall will occur in the future quite often. Previous approach on dependence crop-yields from size of rain confirms the existence of a statistically significant relation. We built a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods of drought, using a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed from rainfall data using the method of maximum likelihood. Long series of days or decades of drought allow to determine the probabilities of adverse developments in agriculture as the basis for forecasting crop yields in the future (years 2030, 2050). Forecasted yields can be used for assessment of productivity and profitability of some selected crops in Kujavian-Pomeranian region. Assumptions and parameters of large-scale spatial economic models will be applied to build up relevant solutions. Calculated with this approach output could be useful to expect decrease in agricultural output in the region. It will enable to shape effective agricultural policy to know how to balance food supply and demand through appropriate managing with stored food raw material and/or import/export policies. Used precipitation-yields dependencies method let verify earlier used methodology through comparison of obtained solutions concerning forecasted yields and closed to it uncertainty analysis.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER |
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Series Editor |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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Series Volume |
3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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Conference |
FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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Notes |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5090 |
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