Abstract: Local-scale daily climate scenarios are required for assessment of climate change impacts. ELPIS is a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for Europe, which are based on the LARS-WG weather generator and future projections from 2 multi-model ensembles, CMIP3 and EU-ENSEMBLES. In ELPIS, the site parameters for the 1980-2010 baseline scenarios were estimated by LARS-WG using daily weather from the European Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) used in many European agricultural assessment studies. The objective of this paper was to compare ELPIS baseline scenarios with observed daily weather obtained independently from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) data set. Several statistical tests were used to compare distributions of climatic variables derived from ECA-observed daily weather and ELPIS-generated baseline scenarios. About 30% of selected sites have a difference in altitude of > 50 m compared with the CGMS grid-cell altitude that was selected to represent agricultural land within a grid-cell. Differences in altitude can explain significant Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test) results for distribution of daily temperature and in t-tests for temperature monthly means, because of the well-known negative correlation between temperature and elevation. For daily precipitation, the KS-test showed little difference between generated and observed data; however, the more sensitive t-test showed significant results for the sites where altitude differences were large. Approximately 11% of sites showed small positive or negative bias in monthly solar radiation, although 86% sites showed > 3 significant t-test results for monthly means. These results can be explained by differences in conversion of sunshine hours to solar radiation used in CGMS and LARS-WG. We conclude that, considering the limitations above, ELPIS baseline scenarios are suitable for agricultural impact assessments in Europe.

Abstract: The data set for this study comprised 1,488,474 test-day records for milk, fat, and protein yields and fat and protein percentages from 191,012 first-, second-, and third-parity Holstein cows from 484 farms. Data were collected from 2001 through 2007 and merged with meteorological data from 35 weather stations. A linear model (M1) was used to estimate the effects of the temperature-humidity index (THI) on production traits. Least squares means from M1 were used to detect the THI thresholds for milk production in all parities by using a 2-phase linear regression procedure (M2). A multiple-trait repeatability test-model (M3) was used to estimate variance components for all traits and a dummy regression variable (t) was defined to estimate the production decline caused by heat stress. Additionally, the estimated variance components and M3 were used to estimate traditional and heat-tolerance breeding values (estimated breeding values, EBV) for milk yield and protein percentages at parity 1. An analysis of data (M2) indicated that the daily THI at which milk production started to decline for the 3 parities and traits ranged from 65 to 76. These THI values can be achieved with different temperature/humidity combinations with a range of temperatures from 21 to 36°C and relative humidity values from 5 to 95%. The highest negative effect of THI was observed 4 d before test day over the 3 parities for all traits. The negative effect of THI on production traits indicates that first-parity cows are less sensitive to heat stress than multiparous cows. Over the parities, the general additive genetic variance decreased for protein content and increased for milk yield and fat and protein yield. Additive genetic variance for heat tolerance showed an increase from the first to third parity for milk, protein, and fat yield, and for protein percentage. Genetic correlations between general and heat stress effects were all unfavorable (from -0.24 to -0.56). Three EBV per trait were calculated for each cow and bull (traditional EBV, traditional EBV estimated with the inclusion of THI covariate effect, and heat tolerance EBV) and the rankings of EBV for 283 bulls born after 1985 with at least 50 daughters were compared. When THI was included in the model, the ranking for 17 and 32 bulls changed for milk yield and protein percentage, respectively. The heat tolerance genetic component is not negligible, suggesting that heat tolerance selection should be included in the selection objectives.

Abstract: Assessing the impact of macro-level policy driven land use changes on regional sustainability is an important task that can facilitate complex decision making processes of introducing reforms. The research work demonstrates the ability of Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT), a meta-model, in conducting ex ante spatially explicit cross sectoral impact assessments of changes in common agricultural policy (CAP). The meta-model is able to appraise impacts of CAP amendments on land use and their repercussions on multiple indicators of sustainability. The presented study comprehensively analyses the possible impacts of discontinuing direct financial support to farmers under CAP. The simulations of the meta-model are able to reveal the land use changes both at EU and regional levels as well as to bring forth the subsequent changes in a number of indicators representing the regional sustainability (for five case study regions). In a nutshell, the simulations indicate that a reduction in direct support brings in general, a decrease in farmed area, an increase in forested land, less fluctuation in natural vegetation coverage, increase in abandoned arable land area and negligible changes in built-up area despite regionally diverging land use trends. The simulated changes in sustainability indicators for the study regions in consequence to these land use changes show that the discontinuation of subsidies evokes responses that are in general climate friendly (reduction in methane and N2O emissions, diminishing energy use and reduction in global warming potential), economically beneficial (increase in gross value of agriculture) and socially desired (decrease in unemployment rate) as well as environmentally harmful (increase in pesticide use). Even though the appraisals of diversity indicators such as forest deadwood and farmland birds are not conclusive for all regions, the changes are positive for the former indicator and slightly negative for the latter in general. The trade-offs among these regional sustainability indicators using their directional associations are also presented for a comprehensive assessment of the impacts. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.