Abstract: Conference presentation PDF

Abstract: While simulation of cropping systems over a few years might reflect well the short term effects of management and cultivation, long term effects on soil properties and their consequences for crop growth and matter fluxes are not captured. Especially the effect on soil carbon sequestration/depletion is addressed by this task. Simulations of an ensemble of crop models are performed as transient runs over a period of 120 year using observed weather from three stations in Czech Republic (1961-2010) and transient long time climate change scenarios (2011-2080) from five GCM of the CMIP5 ensemble to assess the effect of different cropping and management systems on carbon sequestration, matter fluxes and crop production in an integrative way. Two cropping systems are regarded comprising two times winter wheat, silage maize, spring barley and oilseed rape. Crop rotations differ regarding their organic input from crop residues, nitrogen fertilization and implementation of catch crops. Models are applied for two soil types with different water holding capacity. Cultivation and nutrient management is adapted using management rules related to weather and soil conditions. Data of phenology and crop yield from the region of the regarded crops were provided to calibrate the models for crops of the rotations. Twelve models were calibrated in this first step. For the transient long term runs results of four models were submitted so far. Outputs are crop yields, nitrogen uptake, soil water and mineral nitrogen contents, as well as water and nitrogen fluxes to the atmosphere and groundwater. Changes in the carbon stocks and the consequences for nitrogen mineralisation, N fertilization and emissions also considered.

Abstract: Developing scenarios is a common interest within MACSUR researchers. This report  outlines the main results of a survey of TRADE-M participants with respect to the  scenarios used within modelling, the time frame and the importance of factors in  their development. Most researchers are generating their own regionally defined  scenarios, though some are basing these on IPCC scenarios. Generally, they adopt  a short-term time frame of up to 2020 to estimate impacts. Most see food  production as the main driver behind the scenarios followed by climate change  mitigation and adaptation. The main weakness seems to be lack of interest in  modelling variability due to weather effects, these may be an argument for  stronger cross-collaboration between different MACSUR consortia within the crops  and animals groups. No Label