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Banse, M. (2013). FACCE-JPI Achievements to date: MACSUR..
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Bojar, W. (2013). Factsheets of the models (Vol. 1).
Abstract: The exploration of adaptation and mitigation measures in the context of global challenges like climate change, food security and expected demographic boom is an field of research of growing importance. Over the last decades many research groups have been developing economic-trade models to analyse consequences on farm welfare, market supply and trade, some of them also address food security and other global concerns. There are many different ways to tackle these issues and the specific advantages and limitations of alternative modelling strategies are not yet well understood. The objective of the WP1 T1.1 task within TradeM theme of MACSUR is to use the results of a survey on trade and economic models of MACSUR Consortium partners to show which topics are currently addressed in the different models, which methods are used and how well these tools are prepared for an integration with other models like climate, crop and livestock models. This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label
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Lehtonen, H., Rötter, R., & T., P. (2013). Farm level analysis as a key to integrated regional case studies in Finland..
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Leclère, D., Jayet, P. - A., & de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. (2013). Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change. Ecol. Econ., 87, 1–14.
Abstract: The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Zimmermann, A., Witzke, H. - P., & Heckelei, T. (2013). Filling gaps: AgMIP scenario results from CAPRI (Vol. 2).
Abstract: Climate change impacts on food production, socioeconomic changes (population and income growth in large parts of the world) and biofuel policies affecting demand quantities have risen scientific, political and public interest in long-term forecasts on food security. Whereas first quantitative analyses from global economic models are starting to appear (e.g. (von Lampe et al., under review)), similar studies on smaller regional scales are not yet available. However, acknowledging that climate change affects crop yields differently across scales and regions (e.g. (Reidsma et al., 2007)) and considering the specific political setting given through the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in Europe, the MACSUR project focuses on the impact of climate change and socioeconomic changes on European agriculture and its contribution to global food security. We present a Europe-wide analysis of the effect of selected climate and socioeconomic scenarios on food security in terms of food prices using the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact modelling system (CAPRI). No Label
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