|
Records |
Links |
|
Author |
Sandor, R.; Ehrhardt, F.; Grace, P.; Recous, S.; Smith, P.; Snow, V.; Soussana, J.-F.; Basso, B.; Bhatia, A.; Brilli, L.; Doltra, J.; Dorich, C.D.; Doro, L.; Fitton, N.; Grant, B.; Harrison, M.T.; Kirschbaum, M.U.F.; Klumpp, K.; Laville, P.; Leonard, J.; Martin, R.; Massad, R.-S.; Moore, A.; Myrgiotis, V.; Pattey, E.; Rolinski, S.; Sharp, J.; Skiba, U.; Smith, W.; Wu, L.; Zhang, Q.; Bellocchi, G. |
|
|
Title |
Ensemble modelling of carbon fluxes in grasslands and croplands |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2020 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
|
|
Volume |
252 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
107791 |
|
|
Keywords |
C fluxes; croplands; grasslands; multi-model ensemble; multi-model; median (mmm); soil organic-carbon; greenhouse-gas emissions; climate-change impacts; crop model; data aggregation; use efficiency; n2o emissions; maize; yield; wheat; productivity |
|
|
Abstract |
Croplands and grasslands are agricultural systems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchanges of carbon (C). We evaluated and compared gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RECO), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2, and two derived outputs – C use efficiency (CUE=-NEE/GPP) and C emission intensity (IntC= -NEE/Offtake [grazed or harvested biomass]). The outputs came from 23 models (11 crop-specific, eight grassland-specific, and four models covering both systems) at three cropping sites over several rotations with spring and winter cereals, soybean and rapeseed in Canada, France and India, and two temperate permanent grasslands in France and the United Kingdom. The models were run independently over multi-year simulation periods in five stages (S), either blind with no calibration and initialization data (S1), using historical management and climate for initialization (S2), calibrated against plant data (S3), plant and soil data together (S4), or with the addition of C and N fluxes (S5). Here, we provide a framework to address methodological uncertainties and contextualize results. Most of the models overestimated or underestimated the C fluxes observed during the growing seasons (or the whole years for grasslands), with substantial differences between models. For each simulated variable, changes in the multi-model median (MMM) from S1 to S5 was used as a descriptor of the ensemble performance. Overall, the greatest improvements (MMM approaching the mean of observations) were achieved at S3 or higher calibration stages. For instance, grassland GPP MMM was equal to 1632 g C m−2 yr-1 (S5) while the observed mean was equal to 1763 m-2 yr-1 (average for two sites). Nash-Sutcliffe modelling efficiency coefficients indicated that MMM outperformed individual models in 92.3 % of cases. Our study suggests a cautious use of large-scale, multi-model ensembles to estimate C fluxes in agricultural sites if some site-specific plant and soil observations are available for model calibration. The further development of crop/grassland ensemble modelling will hinge upon the interpretation of results in light of the way models represent the processes underlying C fluxes in complex agricultural systems (grassland and crop rotations including fallow periods). |
|
|
Address |
2020-06-08 |
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
LiveM |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5230 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Webber, H.; Ewert, F.; Olesen, J.E.; Müller, C.; Fronzek, S.; Ruane, A.C.; Bourgault, M.; Martre, P.; Ababaei, B.; Bindi, M.; Ferrise, R.; Finger, R.; Fodor, N.; Gabaldón-Leal, C.; Gaiser, T.; Jabloun, M.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Lizaso, J.I.; Lorite, I.J.; Manceau, L.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Rodríguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Siebert, S.; Stella, T.; Stratonovitch, P.; Trombi, G.; Wallach, D. |
|
|
Title |
Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Nature Communications |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Comm. |
|
|
Volume |
9 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
4249 |
|
|
Keywords |
Climate-Change Impacts; Air CO2 Enrichment; Food Security; Heat-Stress; Nitrogen Dynamics; Semiarid Environments; Canopy Temperature; Simulation-Model; Crop Production; Elevated CO2 |
|
|
Abstract |
Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984-2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years. |
|
|
Address |
2018-10-25 |
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
2041-1723 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5211 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Salo, T.J.; Palosuo, T.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Nendel, C.; Angulo, C.; Ewert, F.; Bindi, M.; Calanca, P.; Klein, T.; Moriondo, M.; Ferrise, R.; Olesen, J.E.; Patil, R.H.; Ruget, F.; Takáč, J.; Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Rötter, R.P. |
|
|
Title |
Comparing the performance of 11 crop simulation models in predicting yield response to nitrogen fertilization |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Journal of Agricultural Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Agric. Sci. |
|
|
Volume |
154 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
1218-1240 |
|
|
Keywords |
northern growing conditions; climate-change impacts; spring barley; systems simulation; farming systems; soil properties; winter-wheat; dynamics; growth; management |
|
|
Abstract |
Eleven widely used crop simulation models (APSIM, CERES, CROPSYST, COUP, DAISY, EPIC, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA, STICS and WOFOST) were tested using spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) data set under varying nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates from three experimental years in the boreal climate of Jokioinen, Finland. This is the largest standardized crop model inter-comparison under different levels of N supply to date. The models were calibrated using data from 2002 and 2008, of which 2008 included six N rates ranging from 0 to 150 kg N/ha. Calibration data consisted of weather, soil, phenology, leaf area index (LAI) and yield observations. The models were then tested against new data for 2009 and their performance was assessed and compared with both the two calibration years and the test year. For the calibration period, root mean square error between measurements and simulated grain dry matter yields ranged from 170 to 870 kg/ha. During the test year 2009, most models failed to accurately reproduce the observed low yield without N fertilizer as well as the steep yield response to N applications. The multi-model predictions were closer to observations than most single-model predictions, but multi-model mean could not correct systematic errors in model simulations. Variation in soil N mineralization and LAI development due to differences in weather not captured by the models most likely was the main reason for their unsatisfactory performance. This suggests the need for model improvement in soil N mineralization as a function of soil temperature and moisture. Furthermore, specific weather event impacts such as low temperatures after emergence in 2009, tending to enhance tillering, and a high precipitation event just before harvest in 2008, causing possible yield penalties, were not captured by any of the models compared in the current study. |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
0021-8596 1469-5146 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4713 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Holman, I.P.; Brown, C.; Janes, V.; Sandars, D. |
|
|
Title |
Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
|
|
Volume |
151 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
126-135 |
|
|
Keywords |
Climate change, Socio-economic change, Impacts, Integrated assessment, Uncertainty; Climate-Change Impacts; Water-Based Sectors; North-West England; Socioeconomic Change; Change Vulnerability; East-Anglia; Adaptation; Policy; Uncertainties; Agriculture |
|
|
Abstract |
The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (<33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability. |
|
|
Address |
2017-02-23 |
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
LiveM, TradeM, ft_MACSUR |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4937 |
|
Permanent link to this record |