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Author | Siebert, S.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F.; Siebert, S.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F. | ||||
Title | Heat stress is overestimated in climate impact studies for irrigated agriculture | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2017 | Publication | Environmental Research Letters | Abbreviated Journal | Environ. Res. Lett. |
Volume | 12 | Issue | 5 | Pages | 054023 |
Keywords | heat stress; climate change impact assessment; irrigation; canopy temperature; CANOPY TEMPERATURE; WINTER-WHEAT; WATER-STRESS; CROP YIELDS; GROWTH; MAIZE; DROUGHT; UNCERTAINTY; ENVIRONMENT; PHENOLOGY | ||||
Abstract | Climate change will increase the number and severity of heat waves, and is expected to negatively affect crop yields. Here we show for wheat and maize across Europe that heat stress is considerably reduced by irrigation due to surface cooling for both current and projected future climate. We demonstrate that crop heat stress impact assessments should be based on canopy temperature because simulations with air temperatures measured at standard weather stations cannot reproduce differences in crop heat stress between irrigated and rainfed conditions. Crop heat stress was overestimated on irrigated land when air temperature was used with errors becoming larger with projected climate change. Corresponding errors in mean crop yield calculated across Europe for baseline climate 1984-2013 of 0.2 Mg yr(-1) (2%) and 0.6 Mg yr(-1) (5%) for irrigated winter wheat and irrigated grain maize, respectively, would increase to up to 1.5 Mg yr (1) (16%) for irrigated winter wheat and 4.1 Mg yr (1) (39%) for irrigated grain maize, depending on the climate change projection/GCM combination considered. We conclude that climate change impact assessments for crop heat stress need to account explicitly for the impact of irrigation. | ||||
Address | 2017-06-22 | ||||
Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
ISSN | 1748-9326 | ISBN | Medium | ||
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | CropM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 5035 | ||
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Author | Challinor, A.J.; Müller, C.; Asseng, S.; Deva, C.; Nicklin, K.J.; Wallach, D.; Vanuytrecht, E.; Whitfield, S.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Koehler, A.-K. | ||||
Title | Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2017 | Publication | Agricultural Systems | Abbreviated Journal | Agric. Syst. |
Volume | 159 | Issue | Pages | 296-306 | |
Keywords | Crop model; Risk assessment; Climate change impacts; Adaptation; Climate models; Uncertainty | ||||
Abstract | Highlights • 14 criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk • Working with stakeholders to identify timing of risks is key to risk assessments. • Multiple methods needed to critically assess the use of climate model output • Increasing transparency and inter-comparability needed in risk assessments Abstract Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1. Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk? 2. Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output. 3. Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions underlying these ranges are not always clear. We suggest that the contingency of results upon assumptions is made explicit via a common uncertainty reporting format; and/or that studies are assessed against a set of criteria, such as those presented in this paper. |
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Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
Language | Summary Language | phase 2+ | Original Title | ||
Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
ISSN | 0308521x | ISBN | Medium | ||
Area | CropM | Expedition | Conference | ||
Notes | CropM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 5175 | ||
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Author | Schönhart, M.; Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Heinrich, G.; Gobiet, A. | ||||
Title | Integrated analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2014 | Publication | German Journal of Agricultural Economics | Abbreviated Journal | German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
Volume | 63 | Issue | 3 | Pages | 156-176 |
Keywords | land use; modelling; climate change impact; adaptation; integrated analysis; epic; pasma; crop production; land-use; management-practices; model projections; central-europe; soil-erosion; water; variability; strategies; region | ||||
Abstract | An integrated modelling framework (IMF) has been developed and applied to analyse climate change impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture. The IMF couples the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bottom-up economic land use model PASMA at regional level (NUTS-3) considering agri-environmental indicators. Four contrasting regional climate model (RCM) simulations represent climate change until 2050. The RCM simulations are applied to a baseline and three adaptation and policy scenarios. Climate change increases crop productivity on national average in the IMF. Changes in average gross margins at national level range from 0% to + 5% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. The impacts at NUTS-3 level range from -5% to + 7% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. Adaptation measures such as planting of winter cover crops, reduced tillage and irrigation are effective in reducing yield losses, increasing revenues, or in improving environmental states under climate change. Future research should account for extreme weather events in order to analyse whether average productivity gains at the aggregated level suffice to cover costs from expected higher climate variability. | ||||
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Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
ISSN | 0002-1121 | ISBN | Medium | Article | |
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | TradeM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4652 | ||
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Author | Mitter, H.; Schmid, E.; Sinabell, F. | ||||
Title | Integrated modelling of protein crop production responses to climate change and agricultural policy scenarios in Austria | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2015 | Publication | Climate Research | Abbreviated Journal | Clim. Res. |
Volume | 65 | Issue | Pages | 205-220 | |
Keywords | Climate change impact; Adaptation; Soybean; EPIC; Common Agricultural Policy; Land use | ||||
Abstract | Climate and policy changes are likely to affect protein crop production and thus trade balances in Europe, which is highly dependent on imports. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we developed an integrated modelling framework to analyze climate change and policy scenario impacts on protein crop production and environmental outcomes. The integrated modelling framework consists of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. EPIC is applied to simulate annual dry matter crop yields for different crop management practices including crop rotations, fertilization intensities, and irrigation, as well as for 3 regional climate change scenarios until 2040 at a 1 km grid resolution. BiomAT maximizes total gross margins by optimizing land use choices and crop management practices subject to spatially explicit cropland endowments. The model results indicate that changes in agricultural policy conditions, cropland use, and higher flexibility in crop management practices may reduce protein import dependence under changing climatic conditions. Expanding protein crop production is most attractive in south-eastern Austria with its Central European continental climate where maize is most often replaced in crop rotations. However, the acreage of protein crops is limited by agronomically suitable cropland. An intended side effect is the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer inputs by about 0.1% if total protein crop production increases by 1%. | ||||
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Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
Language | Summary Language | Original Title | |||
Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
ISSN | 0936-577x | ISBN | Medium | ||
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | TradeM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 5012 | ||
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Author | Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, M.; Semenov, M.A. | ||||
Title | Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security INTRODUCTION | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2015 | Publication | Climate Research | Abbreviated Journal | Clim. Res. |
Volume | 65 | Issue | Pages | 3-5 | |
Keywords | Crop production; Climate change impact and adaptation assessments; Upscaling; Model ensembles | ||||
Abstract | Process-based crop models that synthesise the latest scientific understanding of biophysical processes are currently the primary scientific tools available to assess potential impacts of climate change on crop production. Important obstacles are still present, however, and must be overcome for improving crop modelling application in integrated assessments of risk, of sustainability and of crop-production resilience in the face of climate change (e.g. uncertainty analysis, model integration, etc.). The research networks MACSUR and AGMIP organised the CropM International Symposium and Workshop in Oslo, on 10-12 February 2014, and present this CR Special, discussing the state-of-the-art-as well as future perspectives-of crop modelling applications in climate change risk assessment, including the challenges of integrated assessments for the agricultural sector. | ||||
Address | 2016-10-31 | ||||
Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
ISSN | 0936-577x | ISBN | Medium | Editorial Material | |
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | CropM, ftnotmacsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4785 | ||
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