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Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R.P.; Lobell, D.B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B.A.; Ottman, M.J.; Wall, G.W.; White, J.W.; Reynolds, M.P.; Alderman, P.D.; Prasad, P.V.V.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L.A.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C.D.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ruane, A.C.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P.J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y. |
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Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production |
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2014 |
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Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
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5 |
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2 |
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143-147 |
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climate-change; spring wheat; dryland wheat; yield; growth; drought; heat; CO2; agriculture; adaptation |
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Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time. |
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1758-678x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4550 |
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Author |
Bodirsky, B.L.; Müller, C. |
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Title |
Robust relationship between yields and nitrogen inputs indicates three ways to reduce nitrogen pollution |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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9 |
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11 |
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111005 |
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nitrogen use efficiency; nitrogen; fertilizer; nitrogen pollution; agriculture; yields; mitigation; framework |
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Historic increases in agricultural production came at the expense of substantial environmental burden through nitrogen pollution. Lassaletta et al (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 105011) examine the historic relationship of crop yields and nitrogen fertilizer inputs globally and find a simple and robust relationship of declining nitrogen use efficiency with increasing nitrogen inputs. This general relationship helps to understand the dilemma between increased agricultural production and nitrogen pollution and allows identifying pathways towards more sustainable agricultural production and necessary associated policies. |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4514 |
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Carter, T. |
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Scenarios and related data for MACSUR2 Timothy Carter Finnish Environment |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-11 |
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Framing scenario selection (RCP/SSP)Ongoing scenario development in FP7 IMPRESSIONSSome examples of sources of data and scenarios No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2126 |
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Zander, P. |
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Scenarios of regional agricultural land use under climate change for 4 case study regions in Northern Germany |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-73 |
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Agricultural land use in Northern Germany is characterized by a gradient of decreasing precipitation from west to east. Climate change is expected to increase temperature and decrease summer precipitation. In the context of a nationally funded project we aim to analyze climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural land use. The research is focused in 4 study regions from Eastern to Western Germany. The presented modelling approach analyses agricultural land use under climate change and for three policy scenarios (business as usual, biodiversity and climate protection). The biodiversity and climate protection scenarios each reserve area for specific scenario objectives: 10% for specific biodiversity measures and 20% for N-fixing legumes in case of the climate protection scenario. All scenarios are executed for three time steps representing year 2010, 2020 and 2030 with a constant yield increase, extrapolated from past observations. Building on IACS data for a farm typology and expert assessments of current and future land use options, we applied a linear programming farm model. Prices are exogenous and derived from CAPRI model runs for 2020 and 2030. First preliminary results show strong impacts of price assumptions and yield assessments. This results in 2020 in lower gross margins for a number of crops and finally to higher set aside areas in eastern Germany. For 2030 input–output price relations are more favourable for farmers and thus lead to lower set aside areas. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2188 |
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Francioni, M.; D’Ottavio, P.; Lai, R.; Trozzo, L.; Budimir, K.; Foresi, L.; Kishimoto-Mo, A.W.; Baldoni, N.; Allegrezza, M.; Tesei, G.; Toderi, M. |
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Seasonal Soil Respiration Dynamics and Carbon-Stock Variations in Mountain Permanent Grasslands Compared to Arable Lands |
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2019 |
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Agriculture-Basel |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agriculture-Basel |
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9 |
Issue |
8 |
Pages |
165 |
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ecosystem services; C stock; CO2; GHG; land use change; Q(10); temperature; vegetation; patterns; emissions; climate |
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Permanent grasslands provide a wide array of ecosystem services. Despite this, few studies have investigated grassland carbon (C) dynamics, and especially those related to the effects of land-use changes. This study aimed to determine whether the land-use change from permanent grassland to arable lands resulted in variations in the soil C stock, and whether such variations were due to increased soil respiration or to management practices. To address this, seasonal variations of soil respiration, sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature (Q(10)), and soil C stock variations generated by land-use changes were analyzed in a temperate mountain area of central Italy. The comparisons were performed for a permanent grassland and two adjacent fields, one cultivated with lentil and the other with emmer, during the 2015 crop year. Soil respiration and its heterotrophic component showed different spatial and temporal dynamics. Annual cumulative soil respiration rates were 6.05, 5.05 and 3.99 t C ha(-1) year(-1) for grassland, lentil and emmer, respectively. Both soil respiration and heterotrophic soil respiration were positively correlated with soil temperature at 10 cm depth. Derived Q(10) values were from 2.23 to 6.05 for soil respiration, and from 1.82 to 4.06 for heterotrophic respiration. Soil C stock at over 0.2 m in depth was 93.56, 48.74 and 46.80 t C ha(-1) for grassland, lentil and emmer, respectively. The land-use changes from permanent grassland to arable land lead to depletion in terms of the soil C stock due to water soil erosion. A more general evaluation appears necessary to determine the multiple effects of this land-use change at the landscape scale. |
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2020-02-14 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5229 |
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