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Nelson, G.C.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Calvin, K.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Mason, d’C., Daniel; van Meijl, H.; Müller, C.; Reilly, J.; Robertson, R.; Sands, R.D.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Takahashi, K.; Valin, H.; Willenbockel, D. |
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Title  |
Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don’t the models agree |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
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Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
85-101 |
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Keywords |
climate change impacts; economic models of agriculture; scenarios; system model; demand; CMIP5 |
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Abstract |
Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty. |
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English |
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0169-5150 |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4536 |
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Author |
Klosterhalfen, A.; Herbst, M.; Schmidt, M.; Weihermüller, L.; Vanderborght, J.; Vereecken, H. |
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Title |
AgroC – Development and evaluation of a model for carbon fluxes in agroecosystems |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2015 |
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CropM |
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European GeoSciences Union (EGU), General Assembly 2015, 2015-12-04 to 2015-04-17 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2546 |
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Author |
Klosterhalfen, A.; Weihermüller, L.; Herbst, M.; Schmidt, M.; Vanderborght, J.; Vereecken, H. |
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Title |
AgroC – Development and Evaluation of a Model for Carbon Fluxes in Agroecosystems |
Type |
Conference Article |
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2014 |
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CropM |
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2014 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA, 2014-12-15 to 2014-12-19 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2544 |
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Klosterhalfen, A.; Herbst, M.; Schmidt, M.; Vereecken, H.; Weihermüller, L. |
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Title |
AgroC – Development and First Evaluation of a Model for Carbon Fluxes in Agroecosystems |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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CropM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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2545 |
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Author |
Weihermüller, L. |
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Title |
AgroC – Development and first evaluation of a model for carbon fluxes in agroecosystems |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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Agroecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change. To predict and describe the processes, interactions and feedbacks in the plant-soil-system a model accounting for both compartments at an appropriate level of complexity is required.To describe the processes of crop development, crop growth, water flux, heat transport, and carbon cycling three process models were coupled and adjusted to each other: the one-dimensional soil water, heat and CO2 transport model SOILCO2, the carbon turnover model RothC, and the plant growth model SUCROS. Thereby, the main focus was on the full description of the CO2 flux into the atmosphere via plant and soil processes and finally on simulating the net ecosystem exchange. Additionally, the model was modified to work at the temporal resolution between 0.5 and 24 hours.For a first model evaluation a winter wheat data set obtained within the TERENO Rur catchment (North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany) during 2009 was used. For model initialisation soil carbon fractions were available. Plant specific parameters and soil properties were taken from literature. Measured soil water contents, soil temperatures, crop measurements, autotrophic, and heterotrophic chamber-based respiration measurements were used for validation and calibration.The coupled agroecosystem model AgroC described the crop development and heat transport well. Minor adjustments had to be made for carbon cycling, and to adapt the model to site specific conditions the soil hydraulic coefficients for soil water transport had to be determined by inverse modelling. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5052 |
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