| Records |
| Author |
Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
Title  |
Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of the Royal Society Interface |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. R. Soc. Interface |
| Volume |
12 |
Issue |
112 |
Pages |
20150721 |
| Keywords |
climate change; extreme events; food security; winter wheat |
| Abstract |
Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
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| Language |
English |
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| ISSN |
1742-5689 1742-5662 |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4819 |
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| Author |
Milford, A.B. |
| Title |
Achieving Emission Reduction Targets by Changing Eating Habits in Norway |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
TradeM |
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Forskermøtet 2015, The 37th Annual Meeting of the Norwegian Association of Economists, 2015-01-05 to 2015-01-06 |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2639 |
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| Author |
Abadie, L.M.; Galarraga, I.; Milford, A.B.; Gustavsen, G.W. |
| Title |
Achieving Emission Reduction Targets by Changing Eating Habits in Norway |
Type |
Manuscript |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
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TradeM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2271 |
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| Author |
Milford, A. |
| Title |
Achieving Emission Reduction Targets by Changing Eating Habits in Norway |
Type |
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| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
4 |
Issue |
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Pages |
SP4-11 |
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TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, 25–27 November 2014, Hurdalsjø, Norway |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2201 |
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| Author |
Coucheney, E.; Buis, S.; Launay, M.; Constantin, J.; Mary, B.; García de Cortázar-Atauri, I.; Ripoche, D.; Beaudoin, N.; Ruget, F.; &rianarisoa, K.S.; Le Bas, C.; Justes, E.; Léonard, J. |
| Title |
Accuracy, robustness and behavior of the STICS soil–crop model for plant, water and nitrogen outputs: Evaluation over a wide range of agro-environmental conditions in France |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
| Volume |
64 |
Issue |
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Pages |
177-190 |
| Keywords |
soil-crop model; stics; model performances; plant biomass; soil nitrogen; soil water; remote-sensing data; goodness-of-fit; hydrological model; simulation-models; solar-radiation; regional-scale; climate-change; generic model; data set; validation |
| Abstract |
Soil-crop models are increasingly used as predictive tools to assess yield and environmental impacts of agriculture in a growing diversity of contexts. They are however seldom evaluated at a given time over a wide domain of use. We tested here the performances of the STICS model (v8.2.2) with its standard set of parameters over a dataset covering 15 crops and a wide range of agropedoclimatic conditions in France. Model results showed a good overall accuracy, with little bias. Relative RMSE was larger for soil nitrate (49%) than for plant biomass (35%) and nitrogen (33%) and smallest for soil water (10%). Trends induced by contrasted environmental conditions and management practices were well reproduced. Finally, limited dependency of model errors on crops or environments indicated a satisfactory robustness. Such performances make STICS a valuable tool for studying the effects of changes in agro-ecosystems over the domain explored. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1364-8152 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4554 |
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