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Author Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Kros, J.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Britz, W.; Reinds, G.J.; Ewert, F.; de Vries, W.
Title (down) Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agricultural Systems
Volume 140 Issue Pages 56-73
Keywords agriculture; capri; climate change; environmental impact; farming system; fssim; integrated assessment; integrator; model linkage; n emission; price change; scenarios; simplace; technological change; crop simulation-models; agricultural land-use; integrated assessment; growth; strategies; nitrogen; soils; environment; scenarios; emissions
Abstract In this study, we compare the relative importance of climate change to technological, management, price and policy changes on European arable farming systems. This required linking four models: the SIMPLACE crop growth modelling framework to calculate future yields under climate change for arable crops; the CAPRI model to estimate impacts on global agricultural markets, specifically product prices; the bio-economic farm model FSSIM to calculate the future changes in cropping patterns and farm net income at the farm and regional level; and the environmental model INTEGRATOR to calculate nitrogen (N) uptake and losses to air and water. First, the four linked models were applied to analyse the effect of climate change only or a most likely baseline (i.e. B1) scenario for 2050 as well as for two alternative scenarios with, respectively, strong (i.e. A1-b1) and weak economic growth (B2) for five regions/countries across Europe (i.e. Denmark, Flevoland, Midi Pyrenees, Zachodniopomorsld and Andalucia). These analyses Were repeated but assuming in addition to climate change impacts, also the effects of changes in technology and management on crop yields, the effects of changes in prices and policies in 2050, and the effects of all factors together. The outcomes show that the effects of climate change to 2050 result in higher farm net incomes in the Northern and Northern-Central EU regions, in practically unchanged farm net incomes in the Central and Central-Southern EU regions, and in much lower farm net incomes in Southern EU regions compared to those in the base year. Climate change in combination with improved technology and farm management and/or with price changes towards 2050 results in a higher to much higher farm net incomes. Increases in farm net income for the B1 and A1-b1 scenarios are moderately stronger than those for the B2 scenario, due to the smaller increases in product prices and/or yields for the B2 scenario. Farm labour demand slightly to moderately increases towards 2050 as related to changes in cropping patterns. Changes in N2O emissions and N leaching compared to the base year are mainly caused by changes in total N inputs from the applied fertilizers and animal manure, which in turn are influenced by changes in crop yields and cropping patterns, whereas NH3 emissions are mainly determined by assumed improvements in manure application techniques. N emissions and N leaching strongly increase in Denmark and Zachodniopomorski, slightly decrease to moderately increase in Flevoland and Midi-Pyrenees, and strongly decrease in Andalucia, except for NH3 emissions which zero to moderately decrease in Flevoland and Denmark. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.
Address 2015-10-12
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0308-521x ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4703
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Author Dumont, B.; Basso, B.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F.
Title (down) Climatic risk assessment to improve nitrogen fertilisation recommendations: A strategic crop model-based approach Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication European Journal of Agronomy Abbreviated Journal European Journal of Agronomy
Volume 65 Issue Pages 10-17
Keywords climatic variability; stochastically generated weather; lars-wg; crop model; stics; nitrogen management; yield skewness; wheat yield; generic model; stics; management; variability; simulation; field; balances; impact
Abstract Within the context of nitrogen (N) management, since 1950, with the rapid intensification of agriculture, farmers have often applied much larger fertiliser quantities than what was required to reach the yield potential. However, to prevent pollution of surface and groundwater induced by nitrates, The European Community launched The European Nitrates Directive 91/6/76/EEC. In 2002, in Wallonia (Belgium), the Nitrates Directive has been transposed under the Sustainable Nitrogen Management in Agriculture Program (PGDA), with the aim of maintaining productivity and revenue for the country’s farmers, while reducing the environmental impact of excessive N application. A feasible approach for addressing climatic uncertainty lies in the use of crop models such as the one commonly known as STICS (simulateur multidisciplinaire pour les cultures standard). These models allow the impact on crops of the interaction between cropping systems and climatic records to be assessed. Comprehensive historical climatic records are rare, however, and therefore the yield distribution values obtained using such an approach can be discontinuous. In order to obtain better and more detailed yield distribution information, the use of a high number of stochastically generated climate time series was proposed, relying on the LARS-Weather Generator. The study focused on the interactions between varying N practices and climatic conditions. Historically and currently, Belgian farmers apply 180 kg N ha(-1), split into three equal fractions applied at the tillering, stem elongation and flag-leaf stages. This study analysed the effectiveness of this treatment in detail, comparing it to similar practices where only the N rates applied at the flag-leaf stage were modified. Three types of farmer decision-making were analysed. The first related to the choice of N strategy for maximising yield, the second to obtaining the highest net revenue, and the third to reduce the environmental impact of potential N leaching, which carries the likelihood of taxation if inappropriate N rates are applied. The results showed reduced discontinuity in the yield distribution values thus obtained. In general, the modulation of N levels to accord with current farmer practices showed considerable asymmetry. In other words, these practices maximised the probability of achieving yields that were at least superior to the mean of the distribution values, thus reducing risk for the farmers. The practice based on applying the highest amounts (60-60-100 kg N ha(-1)) produced the best yield distribution results. When simple economical criteria were computed, the 60-60-80 kg N ha(-1) protocol was found to be optimal for 80-90% of the time. There were no statistical differences, however, between this practice and Belgian farmers’ current practice. When the taxation linked to a high level of potentially leachable N remaining in the soil after harvest was considered, this methodology clearly showed that, in 3 years out of 4,30 kg N ha(-1) could systematically be saved in comparison with the usual practice.
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1161-0301 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4646
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Author Zylowska, K.; Nieróbca, A.; Kozyra, J.; Syp, A.
Title (down) Climatic condition for yielding of maize in Poland in the period 1971-2010 Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM
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Area Expedition Conference MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2932
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Author Yin, X.; Olesen, J.E.; Li, W.; Wang, M.; Öztürk, I.; Chen, F.
Title (down) Climate effects on crop yield in the northeast farming region of China during 1961 to 2010 Type Manuscript
Year Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM
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Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2910
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Author Müller, C.
Title (down) Climate change impacts, uncertainties and implications Type Conference Article
Year 2013 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM
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Area Expedition Conference First Workshop Expert Network Management of Climate change induced Risks, Hamburg, Germany, 2013-03-20 to 2013-03-21
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2665
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