Records |
Author |
Conradt, T.; Gornott, C.; Wechsung, F. |
Title ![sorted by Title field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
Extending and improving regionalized winter wheat and silage maize yield regression models for Germany: Enhancing the predictive skill by panel definition through cluster analysis |
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Journal Article |
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Volume |
216 |
Issue |
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Pages |
68-81 |
Keywords |
cluster analysis; crop yield estimation; germany; multivariate regression; silage maize; winter wheat; climate-change; canadian prairies; crop yield; temperature; responses; environments; variability; cultivar; china |
Abstract |
Regional agricultural yield assessments allowing for weather effect quantifications are a valuable basis for deriving scenarios of climate change effects and developing adaptation strategies. Assessing weather effects by statistical methods is a classical approach, but for obtaining robust results many details deserve attention and require individual decisions as is demonstrated in this paper. We evaluated regression models for annual yield changes of winter wheat and silage maize in more than 300 German counties and revised them to increase their predictive power. A major effort of this study was, however, aggregating separately estimated time series models (STSM) into panel data models (PDM) based on cluster analyses. The cluster analyses were based on the per-county estimates of STSM parameters. The original STSM formulations (adopted from a parallel study) contained also the non-meteorological input variables acreage and fertilizer price. The models were revised to use only weather variables as estimation basis. These consisted of time aggregates of radiation, precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration. Altering the input variables generally increased the predictive power of the models as did their clustering into PDM. For each crop, five alternative clusterings were produced by three different methods, and similarities between their spatial structures seem to confirm the existence of objective clusters about common model parameters. Observed smooth transitions of STSM parameter values in space suggest, however, spatial autocorrelation effects that could also be modeled explicitly. Both clustering and autocorrelation approaches can effectively reduce the noise in parameter estimation through targeted aggregation of input data. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4709 |
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Author |
Köchy, M. |
Title ![sorted by Title field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
FACCE MACSUR Joint Workshops 2015 |
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Report |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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7 |
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Pages |
H0.3-M1 |
Keywords |
XC activities, Hub |
Abstract |
FACCE MACSUR comprises many different groups whose work contribute to improving the European capacity of modelling agriculture with climate change and providing an assessment of these impacts for stakeholders. Some groups work on methodological issues in a single discipline, others work on cross-disciplinary concepts. The meeting provided an opportunity for the members of the groups to meet for intensive discussions and exchange of ideas, which is not as easily done in phone or video conferences. Various groups also met with each other to agree on work plans and common settings for research. Overall, 105 researchers attended the workshops. For coordinating work with the global program AgMIP, AgMIP’s principle investigator John Antle attended the meeting and, meeting in a video call, coordination teams of MACSUR and AgMIP agreed to continue the successful collaboration in the future. Major overarching outcomes of the meetings were agreements on policy and climate scenarios recommended to be used within MACSUR, development of an approach to quantify effects of extreme climatic events on socio-economic indicators, and closer collaboration among several groups at the level of regional case studies. |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2079 |
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Author |
Köchy, M. |
Title ![sorted by Title field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
FACCE MACSUR Kickoff-Meeting |
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Report |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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1 |
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M-H3.1.0 |
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The FACCE MACSUR kickoff meeting took place 15-16 October 2012 in Berlin, Germany. The date for the meeting was moved from July to October to accommodate the participation of most institutions involved in MACSUR in a sufficiently large meeting place. One hundred and forty-five persons participated in the event. The meeting was organized as a workshop to allow for expanded time for interaction among the participants of the 73 involved institutions. The keynote lectures by Tim Benton (Global Food Security and University of Leeds) and Tim Carter (Finnish Environment Institute – SYKE) set the background by describing the need for assessing future impacts on food security and how to deal with the uncertainty associated with data, models, and projections. In parallel sessions participants discussed the organization of the work in the project and in each Theme, common approaches to answering the questions, selection of scenarios, involvement of stakeholders, and how the results will be presented. The results of the four cross-cutting workshops are documented in separate reports (M-H3.3.1 through M-H3.3.4) and serve as the starting point for more detailed planning over the following months.A post-hoc survey filled in by 75 attendees showed that the workshop had answered many organizational issues. But since the project has only started, many more issues must be discussed and clarified in the coming months, the survey showed. Overall, two thirds of the participants were satisfied with the organization oft he workshop. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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Köchy, M. |
Title ![sorted by Title field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
FACCE MACSUR: Modelling Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security |
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2015 |
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ECCA 2015: 2nd European Climate Change Adaptation Conference, 2015-05-12 to 2015-05-14 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2550 |
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Author |
Köchy, M. |
Title ![sorted by Title field, ascending order (up)](img/sort_asc.gif) |
FACCE MACSUR: Modelling Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security |
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2015 |
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Climate-smart agriculture 2015. Global Science Conference. Montpellier, France, 2015-03-15 to 2015-03-18 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2551 |
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