| Records |
| Author |
Stratonovitch, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
Title  |
Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
| Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3599-3609 |
| Keywords |
Adaptation, Physiological; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Europe; Flowers/*physiology; *Hot Temperature; *Quantitative Trait, Heritable; Time Factors; Triticum/*growth & development/*physiology; Downscaling; LARS-WG weather generator; Sirius wheat model.; heat stress; ideotype design; impact assessment |
| Abstract |
To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, the Sirius wheat model was refined by incorporating the effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number, and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. The model was used to optimize wheat ideotypes for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at six sites in Europe with diverse climates. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased in the future (e.g. by 80% at Seville, 100% at Debrecen) compared with the current cultivars by selecting an optimal combination of wheat traits, e.g. optimal phenology and extended duration of grain filling. However, at two sites, Seville and Debrecen, the grain yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes were substantially lower (by 54% and 16%) and more variable compared with heat-tolerant ideotypes, because the extended grain filling required for the increased yield potential was in conflict with episodes of high temperature during flowering and grain filling. Despite much earlier flowering at these sites, the risk of heat stress affecting yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes remained high. Therefore, heat tolerance in wheat is likely to become a key trait for increased yield potential and yield stability in southern Europe in the future. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4578 |
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| Author |
Zheng, B.; Chapman, S.C.; Christopher, J.T.; Frederiks, T.M.; Chenu, K. |
| Title |
Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
| Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3611-3623 |
| Keywords |
Adaptation, Physiological/genetics; Australia; Computer Simulation; Ecotype; *Freezing; Genotype; Geography; Seasons; Triticum/genetics/*growth & development/physiology; Breeding; climate change; crop adaptation; crop modelling; ideotype; post-head-emergence frost; reproductive frost; spring radiant frost |
| Abstract |
Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957-2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20% through (i) reduced frost damage (~10% improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10% improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates. |
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0022-0957 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4580 |
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| Author |
Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C. |
| Title |
Forecasting technological change in agriculture—An endogenous implementation in a global land use model |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
| Volume |
81 |
Issue |
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Pages |
236-249 |
| Keywords |
Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration |
| Abstract |
► Endogenous technological change in an economic land use model ► Estimation of yield elasticity with respect to investments in technological change ► Projections of future agricultural productivity rates ► Validation with observed data and historic trends ► Trade-off between required technological change and forest protection objectives Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 0.29 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995–2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change. |
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0040-1625 |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4518 |
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| Author |
Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Muller, C. |
| Title |
Forecasting technological change in agriculture-An endogenous implementation in a global, and use model |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
| Volume |
81 |
Issue |
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Pages |
236-249 |
| Keywords |
Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use; intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration |
| Abstract |
Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 029 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (”Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995-2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
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0040-1625 |
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CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4789 |
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| Author |
Legarrea, S.; Betancourt, M.; Plaza, M.; Fraile, A.; García-Arenal, F.; Fereres, A. |
| Title |
Dynamics of nonpersistent aphid-borne viruses in lettuce crops covered with UV-absorbing nets |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Virus Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Virus Res. |
| Volume |
165 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
1-8 |
| Keywords |
Absorption; Animals; Aphids/growth & development/radiation effects/*virology; Insect Control/instrumentation/*methods; Insect Vectors/growth & development/radiation effects/*virology; Lettuce/parasitology/*virology; Plant Diseases/prevention & control/*virology; Plant Viruses/*physiology; Protective Devices/virology; Ultraviolet Rays |
| Abstract |
Aphid-transmitted viruses frequently cause severe epidemics in lettuce grown under Mediterranean climates. Spatio-temporal dynamics of aphid-transmitted viruses and its vector were studied on lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) grown under tunnels covered by two types of nets: a commercial UV-absorbing net (Bionet) and a Standard net. A group of plants infected by Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV, family Bromoviridae, genus Cucumovirus) and Lettuce mosaic virus (LMV, family Potyviridae, genus Potyvirus) was transplanted in each plot. The same virus-infected source plants were artificially infested by the aphid Macrosiphum euphorbiae (Thomas). Secondary spread of insects was weekly monitored and plants were sampled for the detection of viruses every two weeks. In 2008, the infection rate of both CMV and LMV were lower under the Bionet than under the Standard cover, probably due to the lower population density and lower dispersal rate achieved by M. euphorbiae. However, during spring of 2009, significant differences in the rate of infection between the two covers were only found for LMV six weeks after transplant. The spatial distribution of the viruses analysed by SADIE methodology was “at random”, and it was not associated to the spatial pattern of the vector. The results obtained are discussed analyzing the wide range of interactions that occurred among UV-radiation, host plant, viruses, insect vector and environmental conditions. Our results show that UV-absorbing nets can be recommended as a component of an integrated disease management program to reduce secondary spread of lettuce viruses, although not as a control measure on its own. |
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English |
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0168-1702 |
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CropM |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4475 |
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