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Author Bojar, W.
Title (up) Methods to limit risks in agriculture in the era of climate change Type
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 5 Issue Pages Sp5-8
Keywords
Abstract Nowadays, you can forecast that in twenty-first century a probability of drought risk occurrence, a one of the threatening a type of risk in agriculture, will reach a level between 66 and 90 per cent [IPCC 2001].The beginning of the twenty-first century is a time to seek new methods of risk management in agriculture. This is confirmed by the reports and surveys carried out in many research centres, as well as commissioned by public authorities [Xu et al. 2008]. Currently, you can observe the growing importance of the issue of risk in agriculture due to the worsening climate change, changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, the progressive liberalization of food trade on a global scale (less market intervention, increased price volatility and fluctuations in food supply and demand) and associated with those phenomena increase market risk [Jerzak 2008]. Demographic boom, growth in epidemics and diseases or changes in models of consumer behaviour as a result of today’s food trends healthy diet have an impact on food security. It is of interest to large research teams in Europe, just as the above risk factors affect the imbalance of global supply and demand for food in the long term. The Stern [Stern 2006] and report the Foundation for the Development of Polish Agriculture – FDPA) [Report FDPA 2008] and the communications of the European Commission show that in agriculture a lack of system solutions for the management of various risks and set of management instruments it is inadequate to the current situation of the sector.Analyzing historical data, one can conclude that in Poland more often we have to deal with losses caused by deficiency of precipitation than the excess [Mizak et al. 2013]. Droughts in Poland are most common when during the growing season flows very warm and dry air. In 2008, the area of arable land, determined in accordance with the applicable System Monitoring Agricultural Drought criterion of a 20 percent reduction in crop yields covered more than 8.1 million hectares, which accounted for 54% of arable land in Poland [Mizak et al. 2011]. Appropriate agricultural policy and trade policy should ensure sufficient food for the rapidly growing global population under mentioned above extreme natural events circumstances.Research centers in many EU countries and beyond should create appropriate models, tools and techniques in order to solve signaled above specific problems at farms, regions, countries and groups of countries in order to reduce the risks associated with food production [Bojar et al. 2012]. Such models were created as part of the research carried out in the Kujawy & Pomorze region where their results show the possibility of predicting the effects of climate change in the long term [Bojar et al., 2013, Zarski et al. 2014, Bojar at al., 2013].In particular, the series established the likelihood of a lack of rain in the forecast for the years 2030 and 2050 at a certain level and so the series 7, 8, 9 and 10 decades without rain likely to occur by 2030 amounts to 0.302, 0.109, 0.032 and 0.009, while for the year 2050 decades for a series of 7, 8, 9 and 10 respectively 0,543, 0,222, 0,070 and 0,019. It follows that, for a series of seven and eight decades without rain probability of such unfavorable phenomena is highest. Then established the relationship that the lack of rainfall will decrease yields of cereals in total, winter wheat, spring barley and potatoes. It results in the decline in land productivity in the years 2030 and 2050 will amount to cereals in total, winter wheat, spring barley and potatoes in the range of the maximum and minimum respectively 2.51 t/ha -3.67 t/ha, 3.10 t/ha- 4.10 t/ha, 1.63 t/ha – 3.33 t/ha and 15.30 t/ha- 21.00 t/ha [Bojar et al. 2013].The above-described conditions of risk of conducting agricultural activities indicate the need to develop methods of mitigating their negative effects.Mitigation of production and business risks in agriculture can be reached as follows:-        advancement models for defining dependencies between yields and whether in long-term to forecasts negative effects in farming productivity and profitability and this way minimize production and business risks,-        advancement of system of crop insurance,-        improvement of the infrastructure of small retention and simulation of the impact of various forms of cooperation of agricultural producers to increase the efficiency of their operations (joint purchasing of inputs, selling of agricultural products and/or use of machinery [Bojar 2008], work specialization versus production specialization [Bojar W., Drelichowski L., 1994.], common trainings, advertisements [Bojar, Kinder 2008, etc.]. Own preliminary research findings confirmed that approximately one third of the respondents jointly purchases and sales their products and forms of farmer cooperation with a joint market activities (transaction) in the Kujavian & Pomeranian region.For more detail and more precise explanation of dependency between yield and rainfalls some efforts will be focused on mathematical models describing agriculture and climate change problems that can be encountered in risk and safety analysis. We need to describe the uncertainties from incomplete knowledge, imperfect models or measurement errors.Because yields of crops depend strongly on rainfall there will be considered different models of rainfall. You will attempt of the generalization of model mixture the gamma distribution and a single point at zero distribution. This approach will be a continuation of the work that has been sent to print. To extend this application it could be performed calculations for the empirical data coming from the Kujavian & Pomeranian region for different crops.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2123
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Author Bellocchi, G., B.; Brilli, L.; Ferrise, R.; Dibari, C.; Bindi, M.
Title (up) Model comparison and improvement: Links established with other consortia Type Report
Year 2017 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 10 Issue Pages XC1.3-D
Keywords
Abstract XC1 has established links to other research activities and consortia on model comparison and improvement. They include the global initiatives AgMIP (http://www.agmip.org ) and GRA (http://www.globalresearchalliance.org), and the EU-FP7 project MODEXTREME (http://modextreme.org ). These links have allowed sharing and communication of recent results and methods, and have created opportunities for future research calls.
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Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
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ISSN ISBN Medium Report
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4941
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Author Quaranta, G.
Title (up) Model integration with economist perspectives Type Report
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 6 Issue Pages D-T2.4
Keywords
Abstract Models integration and possible contrasts with up-scaling activities has received increasing attention in recent years especially with respect to the relationship between farm-economics and biophysical assessments. Current bio-economic models that analyse the trade-offs between farm income and interventions on eco-bio-environmental parameters such as maintenance of biodiversity, reduction of erosion and nitrate pollution and more, include static models. Agricultural systems are facing a series of threats, including climate change, land degradation, price volatility and intensification processes, which put their long-term sustainability into question. The University of Basilicata in collaboration with local representatives from various sectors of production in the Basilicata region of Southern Italy has developed an integrated study to define a model system to assess the dynamics at play in rural territories. The study tested the explanatory usefulness of resilience theory for the Basilicata agricultural social-ecological system, applying the adaptive cycle as a diagnostic tool to explore the dynamics and trajectories of change in the coupled social-ecological systems, and evaluating the performance of social, economic and social capitals, which are subject to the same dynamics. The use of dynamic analysis of the social, economic and natural capitals as the key to interpret the various phases of the adaptive cycle of the two agricultural systems proved a powerful tool in analysing the relationships between resilience and sustainable development in rural territories. The adoption of capitals and their inter-relations proved fundamental to the elaboration of adaptation strategies which were compatible with patterns of sustainability. The adaptive cycle heuristic, despite some methodological difficulties, remains useful to describe processes of change in rural socio-ecological systems. There could be enormous potential in adopting these instruments to help identify of the needs of different territories and help the framing and implementation of rural policies. No Label
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Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2113
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Author Bellocchi, G.; Sándor, R.
Title (up) Model intercomparison Type Report
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 6 Issue Pages D-L2.4
Keywords
Abstract This deliverable focuses on some illustrative results obtained with different grassland- specific, grassland adapted crop and dynamic vegetation models selected out of the first list of models compiled in D-L2.1.1 to simulate biomass and flux data from grassland sites in Europe and peri-Mediterranean regions (D-L2.1.1 and D-L2.1.2). Results from uncalibrated simulations were documented in the D-L2.3 report as a blind exercise. Some model improvements are emphasized in this report due to the higher information level of the model calibrations. The complete set of results will include simulations from uncalibrated and calibrated models. No Label
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Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
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Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2108
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Author Kersebaum, K.; C
Title (up) Model intercomparison for calibrated models Type Report
Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 4 Issue Pages D-C1.6
Keywords
Abstract The study ROTATIONEFFECT aims to compare the output of different models simulating field data sets with multi-year crop rotations including different treatments.Within the first Step (1a2a) data sets (comprising a total of 301 crop growth seasons) for 5 locations in Europe were distributed to 15 interested modeller groups.For this step only minimal information for calibration were provided to the modellers. In total 15 modelling teams sent their “uncalibrated” results as single-year calculations and/or continuous calculations of rotation depending on the capability of the model. Results have been evaluated and the paper submitted (European Journal of Agronomy).Now, within the 2nd step (1b2b) modellers were provided with more information on the crop for the calibration of models. Again, results of calibrated runs were collected.6 models were capable to run the rotations as continuous runs and another set of 6 models provided single year simulations.A first overview of the improvement of predictions due to calibration has been produced. Result files have been uploaded to the web platform for CropM results at Aarhus University (Work package C2 – data management). No Label
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2213
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