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Author |
Balkovič, J.; van der Velde, M.; Schmid, E.; Skalský, R.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.; Stürmer, B.; Xiong, W. |
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Title  |
Pan-European crop modelling with EPIC: Implementation, up-scaling and regional crop yield validation |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
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Volume |
120 |
Issue |
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Pages |
61-75 |
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Keywords |
EPIC; large-scale crop modelling; model performance testing; EU; climate-change; high-resolution; organic-carbon; growth-model; wheat yield; water; calibration; impacts; productivity; simulations |
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Abstract |
Justifiable usage of large-scale crop model simulations requires transparent, comprehensive and spatially extensive evaluations of their performance and associated accuracy. Simulated crop yields of a Pan-European implementation of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop model were satisfactorily evaluated with reported regional yield data from EUROSTAT for four major crops, including winter wheat, rainfed and irrigated maize, spring barley and winter rye. European-wide land use, elevation, soil and daily meteorological gridded data were integrated in GIS and coupled with EPIC. Default EPIC crop and biophysical process parameter values were used with some minor adjustments according to suggestions from scientific literature. The model performance was improved by spatial calculations of crop sowing densities, potential heat units, operation schedules, and nutrient application rates. EPIC performed reasonable in the simulation of regional crop yields, with long-term averages predicted better than inter-annual variability: linear regression R-2 ranged from 0.58 (maize) to 0.91 (spring barley) and relative estimation errors were between +/- 30% for most of the European regions. The modelled and reported crop yields demonstrated similar responses to driving meteorological variables. However, EPIC performed better in dry compared to wet years. A yield sensitivity analysis of crop nutrient and irrigation management factors and cultivar specific characteristics for contrasting regions in Europe revealed a range in model response and attainable yields. We also show that modelled crop yield is strongly dependent on the chosen PET method. The simulated crop yield variability was lower compared to reported crop yields. This assessment should contribute to the availability of harmonised and transparently evaluated agricultural modelling tools in the EU as well as the establishment of modelling benchmarks as a requirement for sound and ongoing policy evaluations in the agricultural and environmental domains. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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2016-06-01 |
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0308-521x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4737 |
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Author |
Graversgaard, M.; Hedelin, B.; Smith, L.; Gertz, F.; Höjberg, A.L.; Langford, J.; Martinez, G.; Mostert, E. |
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Title |
Opportunities and Barriers for Water Co-Governance – A Critical Analysis of Seven Cases of Diffuse Water Pollution from Agriculture in Europe, Australia and North America |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Sustainability |
Abbreviated Journal |
Sustainability |
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Volume |
10 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
1634 |
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Keywords |
collaborative governance; decentralized decision-making; non-point source pollution; nutrient management; water governance; management; policy; river; eutrophication; phosphorus; resources; nitrogen; hypoxia; quality; options |
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Abstract |
Diffuse Water Pollution from Agriculture (DWPA) and its governance has received increased attention as a policy concern across the globe. Mitigation of DWPA is a complex problem that requires a mix of policy instruments and a multi-agency, broad societal response. In this paper, opportunities and barriers for developing co-governance, defined as collaborative societal involvement in the functions of government, and its suitability for mitigation of DWPA are reviewed using seven case studies in Europe (Poland, Denmark, Sweden, The Netherlands and UK), Australia (Murray-Darling Basin) and North America (State of Minnesota). An analytical framework for assessing opportunities and barriers of co-governance was developed and applied in this review. Results indicated that five key issues constitute both opportunities and barriers, and include: (i) pressure for change; (ii) connected governance structures and allocation of resources and funding; (iii) leadership and establishment of partnerships through capacity building; (iv) use and co-production of knowledge; and (v) time commitment to develop water co-governance. |
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2018-07-12 |
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2071-1050 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5205 |
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Author |
Comadira, G.; Rasool, B.; Karpinska, B.; Morris, J.; Verrall, S.R.; Hedley, P.E.; Foyer, C.H.; Hancock, R.D. |
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Title |
Nitrogen deficiency in barley (Hordeum vulgare) seedlings induces molecular and metabolic adjustments that trigger aphid resistance |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
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66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3639-3655 |
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Keywords |
Animals; Aphids/drug effects/*physiology; Biomass; Carbon/pharmacology; Chlorophyll/metabolism; Cluster Analysis; *Disease Resistance/drug effects; Gases/metabolism; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant/drug effects; Hordeum/drug effects/genetics/*parasitology; Nitrogen/*deficiency/metabolism/pharmacology; Oxidation-Reduction/drug effects; Photosynthesis/drug effects; Plant Diseases/genetics/*parasitology; Plant Leaves/drug effects/genetics/metabolism; Plant Proteins/genetics/metabolism; Plant Shoots/drug effects/metabolism; RNA, Messenger/genetics/metabolism; Secondary Metabolism/drug effects; Seedlings/drug effects/*metabolism/*parasitology; Signal Transduction/drug effects; Thylakoids/drug effects/metabolism/parasitology; Transcription Factors/metabolism; Transcriptome/genetics; Cross-tolerance; Myzus persicae; kinase cascades; metabolite profiles; nitrogen limitation; oxidative stress; sugar signalling |
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Abstract |
Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) pollution resulting from the use of synthetic fertilizers represents a significant contribution to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, providing a rationale for reduced use of nitrogen (N) fertilizers. Nitrogen limitation results in extensive systems rebalancing that remodels metabolism and defence processes. To analyse the regulation underpinning these responses, barley (Horedeum vulgare) seedlings were grown for 7 d under N-deficient conditions until net photosynthesis was 50% lower than in N-replete controls. Although shoot growth was decreased there was no evidence for the induction of oxidative stress despite lower total concentrations of N-containing antioxidants. Nitrogen-deficient barley leaves were rich in amino acids, sugars and tricarboxylic acid cycle intermediates. In contrast to N-replete leaves one-day-old nymphs of the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae) failed to reach adulthood when transferred to N-deficient barley leaves. Transcripts encoding cell, sugar and nutrient signalling, protein degradation and secondary metabolism were over-represented in N-deficient leaves while those associated with hormone metabolism were similar under both nutrient regimes with the exception of mRNAs encoding proteins involved in auxin metabolism and responses. Significant similarities were observed between the N-limited barley leaf transcriptome and that of aphid-infested Arabidopsis leaves. These findings not only highlight significant similarities between biotic and abiotic stress signalling cascades but also identify potential targets for increasing aphid resistance with implications for the development of sustainable agriculture. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4787 |
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Author |
Ferrise, R.; Toscano, P.; Pasqui, M.; Moriondo, M.; Primicerio, J.; Semenov, M.A.; Bindi, M. |
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Title |
Monthly-to-seasonal predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
Issue |
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Pages |
7-21 |
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Keywords |
yield predictions; seasonal forecasts; analogue forecasts; stochastic weather generator; empirical forecasting models; durum wheat; crop modelling; mediterranean basin; general-circulation model; scale climate indexes; crop yield; grain-yield; forecasts; simulation; region; precipitation; australia; europe |
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Uncertainty in weather conditions for the forthcoming growing season influences farmers’ decisions, based on their experience of the past climate, regarding the reduction of agricultural risk. Early within-season predictions of grain yield can represent a great opportunity for farmers to improve their management decisions and potentially increase yield and reduce potential risk. This study assessed 3 methods of within-season predictions of durum wheat yield at 10 sites across the Mediterranean Basin. To assess the value of within-season predictions, the model SiriusQuality2 was used to calculate wheat yields over a 9 yr period. Initially, the model was run with observed daily weather to obtain the reference yields. Then, yield predictions were calculated at a monthly time step, starting from 6 mo before harvest, by feeding the model with observed weather from the beginning of the growing season until a specific date and then with synthetic weather constructed using the 3 methods, historical, analogue or empirical, until the end of the growing season. The results showed that it is possible to predict durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin with an accuracy of normalized root means squared error of <20%, from 5 to 6 mo earlier for the historical and empirical methods and 3 mo earlier for the analogue method. Overall, the historical method performed better than the others. Nonetheless, the analogue and empirical methods provided better estimations for low-yielding and high-yielding years, thus indicating great potential to provide more accurate predictions for years that deviate from average conditions. |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4696 |
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Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Cermák, P.; Pohanková, E.; Orság, M.; Pokorný, E.; Fischer, M.; Brtnický, M.; Žalud, Z. |
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Modelling of yields and soil nitrogen dynamics for crop rotations by HERMES under different climate and soil conditions in the Czech Republic |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Journal of Agricultural Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Agric. Sci. |
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152 |
Issue |
02 |
Pages |
188-204 |
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Keywords |
winter oilseed rape; spring barley; central-europe; growth; simulation; wheat; adaptation; impact; water; agriculture |
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Abstract |
The crop growth model HERMES was used to model crop rotation cycles at 12 experimental sites in the Czech Republic. A wide range of crops (spring and winter barley, winter wheat, maize, potatoes, sugar beet, winter rape, oats, alfalfa and grass), cultivated between 1981 and 2009 under various soil and climatic conditions, were included. The model was able to estimate the yields of field crop rotations at a reasonable level, with an index of agreement (IA) ranging from 0.82 to 0.96 for the calibration database (the median coefficient of determination (R-2) was 0.71), while IA for verification varied from 0.62 to 0.93 (median R-2 was 0.78). Grass yields were also estimated at a reasonable level of accuracy. The estimates were less accurate for the above-ground biomass at harvest (the medians for IA were 0.76 and 0.72 for calibration and verification, respectively, and analogous medians of R-2 were 0.50 and 0.49). The soil mineral nitrogen (N) content under the field crops was simulated with good precision, with the IA ranging from 0.49 to 0.74 for calibration and from 0.43 to 0.68 for verification. Generally, the soil mineral N was underestimated, and more accurate results were achieved at locations with intensive fertilization. Simulated yields, soil N, water and organic carbon (C) contents were compared with long-term field measurements at Ne. mc. ice, located within the fertile Moravian lowland. At this station, all of the observed parameters were reproduced with a reasonable level of accuracy. In the case of the organic C content, HERMES reproduced a decrease ranging from c. 85 to 77 tonnes (t)/ha (for the 0-0.3 m soil layer) between the years 1980 and 2007. In spite of its relatively simple approach and restricted input data, HERMES was proven to be robust across various conditions, which is a precondition for its future use for both theoretical and practical purposes. |
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0021-8596 1469-5146 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4626 |
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