| Records |
| Author |
Sandhu, H.; Porter, J.R.; Wratten, S. |
Title  |
Experimental assessment of ecosystem services in agriculture |
Type |
Book Chapter |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
122-135 |
| Keywords |
CropM; |
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Place of Publication |
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Editor |
Wratten, S.; Sandhu, H.; Cullen, R.; Costanza, R. |
| Language |
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Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title |
Ecosystem Services in Agricultural and Urban Landscapes |
Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2786 |
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| Author |
Conradt, T.; Gornott, C.; Wechsung, F. |
| Title |
Extending and improving regionalized winter wheat and silage maize yield regression models for Germany: Enhancing the predictive skill by panel definition through cluster analysis |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
| Volume |
216 |
Issue |
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Pages |
68-81 |
| Keywords |
cluster analysis; crop yield estimation; germany; multivariate regression; silage maize; winter wheat; climate-change; canadian prairies; crop yield; temperature; responses; environments; variability; cultivar; china |
| Abstract |
Regional agricultural yield assessments allowing for weather effect quantifications are a valuable basis for deriving scenarios of climate change effects and developing adaptation strategies. Assessing weather effects by statistical methods is a classical approach, but for obtaining robust results many details deserve attention and require individual decisions as is demonstrated in this paper. We evaluated regression models for annual yield changes of winter wheat and silage maize in more than 300 German counties and revised them to increase their predictive power. A major effort of this study was, however, aggregating separately estimated time series models (STSM) into panel data models (PDM) based on cluster analyses. The cluster analyses were based on the per-county estimates of STSM parameters. The original STSM formulations (adopted from a parallel study) contained also the non-meteorological input variables acreage and fertilizer price. The models were revised to use only weather variables as estimation basis. These consisted of time aggregates of radiation, precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration. Altering the input variables generally increased the predictive power of the models as did their clustering into PDM. For each crop, five alternative clusterings were produced by three different methods, and similarities between their spatial structures seem to confirm the existence of objective clusters about common model parameters. Observed smooth transitions of STSM parameter values in space suggest, however, spatial autocorrelation effects that could also be modeled explicitly. Both clustering and autocorrelation approaches can effectively reduce the noise in parameter estimation through targeted aggregation of input data. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0168-1923 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4709 |
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| Author |
Jaromir, K.; Piotr, B.; Cezary, S. |
| Title |
Field experiment in Lubelskie region to validate crop growth models in temperate climate |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
CropM |
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Place of Publication |
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Conference |
MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2506 |
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| Author |
Krzyszczak, J.; Baranowski, P.; Slawinski, C. |
| Title |
Field experiment in Lubelskie region to validate crop growth models in temperate, climate |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
CropM |
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Place of Publication |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2577 |
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| Author |
Ponti, L.; Gutierrez, A.P.; Ruti, P.M.; Dell’Aquila, A. |
| Title |
Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
| Volume |
111 |
Issue |
15 |
Pages |
5598-5603 |
| Keywords |
Animals; *Biodiversity; *Climate Change; Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends; Crops, Agricultural/*economics/physiology; Geography; Host-Parasite Interactions; Mediterranean Region; Models, Biological; Models, Economic; Olea/*parasitology/*physiology; Tephritidae/*physiology; Olea europaea; desertification; ecological impacts; economic impacts; species interactions |
| Abstract |
The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests. |
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| Language |
English |
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Original Title |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0027-8424 1091-6490 |
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Article |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4539 |
| Permanent link to this record |
