Bojar, W., Knopik, L., & Zarski, J. (2014). Integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability for use in food supply forecasting (Vol. 3).
Abstract: Climate change suggests long periods without rainfall will occur in the future quite often. Previous approach on dependence crop-yields from size of rain confirms the existence of a statistically significant relation. We built a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods of drought, using a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed from rainfall data using the method of maximum likelihood. Long series of days or decades of drought allow to determine the probabilities of adverse developments in agriculture as the basis for forecasting crop yields in the future (years 2030, 2050). Forecasted yields can be used for assessment of productivity and profitability of some selected crops in Kujavian-Pomeranian region. Assumptions and parameters of large-scale spatial economic models will be applied to build up relevant solutions. Calculated with this approach output could be useful to expect decrease in agricultural output in the region. It will enable to shape effective agricultural policy to know how to balance food supply and demand through appropriate managing with stored food raw material and/or import/export policies. Used precipitation-yields dependencies method let verify earlier used methodology through comparison of obtained solutions concerning forecasted yields and closed to it uncertainty analysis.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label
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Schönhart et al. (2016). Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Farms and Ecosystems in a Grassland Dominated Austrian Landscape (Vol. 8).
Abstract: Conference presentation PDF
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Schönhart, M. (2015). Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Impacts at Field and Farm level in the Austrian Mostviertel Region (Vol. 4).
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Schönhart, M. (2015). Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Impacts at Landscape Level in the Austrian Mostviertel Region (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Climate change poses fundamental challenges on agriculture. It triggers autonomous adaptation responses of famers and thereby impacts the success of climate change mitigation. Integrated modelling frameworks (IMF) on land use serve as decision support instruments under such conditions by considering climate signals and accounting for combined mitigation and adaptation policies. We apply an IMF at the farm level in two contrasting grassland and cropland dominated landscapes in Austria to analyze climate change impacts on land use as well as impacts from mitigation and adaptation policies on the abiotic and biotic environment and the landscape. Results show that the impacts on farm gross margins and the abiotic and biotic environment are substantial either directly from climate change (e.g. changing erosion levels) or triggered via adaptation responses (i.e. land use and management change). Average gross margins increase between 1% and 12% depending on the case study landscape, the climate change scenario, and the policy scenario. With respect to biodiversity indicators, land use changes in the adaptation scenario decrease plant species diversity on farmland by 13% on average and losses are up to 80% for some farms. These changes are driven by policies in the adaptation scenario as responses on climate change in the absence of policies are modest with minor impacts on biodiversity. Results indicate the effectiveness of climate change adaptation in increasing farm incomes and the need to coordinate mitigation and adaptation policies to manage environmental outcomes. The IMF turns out to be effective in revealing heterogeneity of climate change impacts among farms and regions and linkages among adaptation and mitigation policies. No Label
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Schönhart, M., Schauppenlehner, T., Kuttner, M., & Schmid, E. (2015). Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Impacts at Landscape level: Mostviertel, Austria. In FACCE MACSUR Reports (Vol. 6, SPp. 6). Brussels.
Abstract: ConclusionsIncreasing productivity can increase intensification pressuresThreatened permanent (extensive) grasslands and landscape elements, butsubject to resource constraints, costs and prices andfuture production potential to increase global food supplyFuture RDP and environmental policy design (e.g. WFD) should take changing productivity into accountHeterogeneity matters at farm and regional levelChanging relative competitiveness of farmsFuture research: analyze uncertainties No Label
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